Yeoman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Doug Hill is kinda awful Might help if he had a Met degree.. another AWS seal drone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 I gotta get the totals for the GEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This is where we should get some sleep etc. We're gonna get smashed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Thanks Bob. I need to brush up on upper level lows and tracking those. I tend to focus on 500 and SLP. Is the upper level low at 850? Mods if this is banter feel free to move. I figure others may have similar questions as me. We can discuss another day but 500 is where upper level lows are and the primary panel for making sense below it. Especially with coastals. 700 and 850 are mid levels. Vertically stacked and occluded are when slp through the upper levels are on top of each other. Like an eye. The good action happens before that. SNE doesn't like millers A's nearly as much as we do. When it goes right it bombs out and destroys us and then matures further north. Miller B's usually bomb out and destroy SNE while we discuss backside flurries in PA working down here. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The American models really hate us . The gfs is crap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This is where we should get some sleep etc. We're gonna get smashed. I'm already there thanks to a day of skiing and a bottle of Captain 100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mosi76 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 CCB'd i am hugging this all the way through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GEM.. oh my... Just a full 24 hours of pure awesomeness. That back end is just... sooo pretty! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Ggem is my new 2nd favorite model around 24 hrs snow at BWI, with a little rn/sn mix at the end after it's spent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This is where we should get some sleep etc. We're gonna get smashed. I might actually go in late morning on Wednesday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 ender - are you guys using a BlueGene machine for compute or a teracluster running TOSS? I should have added the disclaimer that I'm not "one of those guys". When I refer to "we" I'm talking about us the US tax payers. My view into EMC is limited and largely based on reading published papers; which, by the way, there's a ton of knowledge conveyed within, and via some limited inside perspective of NCAR's modeling efforts and challenges that I've gained through a handful of friends in college that have built their career over there. That information, combined with a couple decades dealing with "big data" (God I hate that phrase) on the commercial scale, which is laughably small compared to the data assimilation scale, allows for at least a rudimentary foundation with which to compare the EC and GFS quality of product improvements over the last several years against their respective infrastructure in increases. NCEP has made steady improvements in verification scores while being essentially capped on CPU and working memory. The European has seen verification improve in tandem with additional physical resources. It's much, much harder to continue to make good tasting lemonade when you have to keep reusing the same lemons as opposed to doing so with a few new lemons each time around. I'm making the assumption that necessity has bred ingenuity and a depth and breadth of resourcefulness at NCEP that simply hasn't been require in the past decade at the E.C. as they had the luxury of resources. There'll come a point, not far down the road, when we're at relatively similar spatial resolution, and a bit thereafter from what I've been reading, when we'll have a competitive data assimilation paradigm as well. They'll still have less CPU scheduling challenges than we will, but we'll certainly have enough to run a global model at better than today's EC resolution. In short, we're going to be position to compete on a nearly equal infrastructure footing. That's the time when a decade of making lemonade out of rinds should come in handy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The American models really hate us . The gfs is crap it doesnt matter...plus it isnt that bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I gotta get the totals for the GEM Should know in like 10... the B and W maps are taking forever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k94 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I gotta get the totals for the GEM The meteo-centre wait . Wrap-around snow is awesome. PHL ends with rain/snow, that would be an icing on the cake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Just to add fuel to the fire of the ggem...go look at ian's post of the 586 euro members. That solution is there more than once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Two of the newest analogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 This is where we should get some sleep etc. We're gonna get smashed. Im going to bed now...not waiting for the Euro....i had to medicate (legally!!)...its the only way i can get to sleep. I hope to get at least 5, 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 it doesnt matter...plus it isnt that bad Lol it gives me .49 Euro gives me that in one panel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Lol it gives me .49 Euro gives me that in one panel Wendy Rieger is hugging the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Seems like the guidance tonight is tracking the low right to the mouth of the bay. That is the ideal location for everyone. The GEM is just a complete crush job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GFS is the dry outlier. Good 00z trend IMO. Euro did much better with QPF last February in the New England death band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 What was done to the site... why is it so fast now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I don't think the folks at the meteo centre can believe what the GEM is putting out so it's delayed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Im going to bed now...not waiting for the Euro....i had to medicate (legally!!)...its the only way i can get to sleep. I hope to get at least 5, 6 hours. I stay up for the euro when it is 67 and there is nothing but SE ridge forecast.....There is no way I'm not going to be up for it tonight and tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Lol it gives me .49 Euro gives me that in one panel who cares? why do you keep bring it it up and sweating it? it is the only dry model and it's starting to get a clue. You have every other model pasting you and you gaf about the GFS who just had us sunny yesterday for the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I might actually go in late morning on Wednesday... when is the GFS going to catch on with precip fully? 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 So...much...neige Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GFS is the dry outlier. Good 00z trend IMO. Euro did much better with QPF last February in the New England death band. 00z NAM took a step back. Possible convective feedback issues, yes, but still a step back from 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 00z NAM took a step back. Possible convective feedback issues, yes, but still a step back from 18z. Anything would have been a step back from the 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miller.b.time Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Latest WPC Model Disco: EASTERN U.S. CYCLONE AND WINTER STORM~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~PREFERENCE: BLEND OF 12Z UKMET / 12Z EC MEANCONFIDENCE: AVERAGETHE 00Z NAM IS DIFFERENT EARLY IN THE SHORT RANGE...REGARDING ANRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ENTERING BRITISH COLUMBIA EARLYTHIS MORNING. THIS CONTINUES DOWNSTREAM WITH A SLOWER/NORTHWARDDISPLACED MID-LEVEL JET STREAK BY WED MORNING OVER THE CNTRL HIGHPLAINS...A FEATURE WHICH HOLDS GOOD CONTINUITY IN THEGFS/ECMWF/UKMET. THIS RESULTS IN A LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH INTHE NAM BY EARLY THU OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS.THE ENSEMBLE SCATTER LOW PLOTS ARE MORE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THANYESTERDAY...WHICH SHOULD BE EXPECTED...BUT HAVE MADE A WHOLESALESHIFT SLOWER AND WEST. THE ECMWF MEMBERS ARE ON THE WEST SIDE OFTHE LOW PLOT ENVELOPE...FOLLOWED BY THE GEFS/CMC MEMBERS JUSTRIGHT OF THE ECMWF MEMBER CLUSTER DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THISPRECLUDES USE OF THE 12Z CMC WHICH IS MUCH FASTER THAN THECONSENSUS. DUE TO THE ECMWF AND ITS MEAN BEING ON THE WESTERN SIDEOF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE WITH THE SURFACE LOW WHICH TRACKS UP THEEAST COAST... DESPITE THE WESTWARD TREND SEEN IN ALL OF THEMODELS...THE SAFER PLACE IS JUST A BIT EAST OF THE ECMWF. THE 00ZGFS POSITION LOOKS REASONABLE...BUT APPEARS TOO WEAK AND MAY HAVESOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK WHICH DEVELOPS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.THE 12Z UKMET APPEARS TO BE A DECENT COMPROMISE WHEN BLENDED WITHTHE 12Z EC MEAN...WITH THE EC MEAN A BIT EAST OF THE OPERATIONALECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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