yoda Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 00z GGEM at 48 on crappy maps -- http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/531_100.gif 1008 L just west of JAX and 1033 H just east of ME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Man that is nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 00z GGEM at 48 on crappy maps -- http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/531_100.gif that's gunna be a big hit (qpf-wise at least) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 if I am off, I might head to FT Reno since they do better than everyone else and it is right by the metro..my firm almost never closes...I might have to work Let me know.. would love to meet up for drinks and snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The problem happened @ 60 when this little peanut couldn't keep his act together and poofed. By the time the good close happened it was a tad too late. Turn this little peanut into basketball and we get destroyed. peanut.JPG gonna be one very buried peanut. long live the (eastward headed) king. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I always find it interesting (and sometimes comical) to see how the local TV mets interpret the same things we are looking at here. Doug Hill just had a graphic: Accumulating snow: 60% 5+ inches: 30% Historic storm: 5% No snow: 5% Pretty conservative, but I can't fault it. He knows DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 CWG predictions as of 11:15. Seems fair, obviously keeping a potential low outcome in play. Probability of 1″+: DC/Balt/Fredericksburg: 80%, Frederick/Loudoun/Warrenton 85% Probability of 4″+ DC/Balt/Fredericksburg: 60%, Frederick/Loudoun/Warrenton 70% Probability of 8″+ DC/Balt/Fredericksburg: 45%, Frederick/Loudoun/Warrenton 55% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Bob anything in particular we need for the GFS to come full circle (pun intended)? Earlier phase? Everything is right there on the table and so close. All the good solutions close off h5 earlier or in a better spot. Euro is way early. Like @ 1am Thurs over western TN. Probably part of the reason it has the furthest west track. SLP track is sweet on the gfs. Deform/comma sig is there but it's kinda weak. The easiest way to get there is the upper level low to close off anywhere west of DC. It would really make the nw side of the low go nuts. Even if h5 doesn't close, digging deep and going neutral quicker helps a ton. Honestly, the gfs is already there for a good storm. I'm no longer concerned about it. Tonight's run is the furthest east solution IMO. It gets better from here. And I still think we mix near the cities. Chasing all snow will prob get some feelings hurt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I always find it interesting (and sometimes comical) to see how the local TV mets interpret the same things we are looking at here. Doug Hill just had a graphic: Accumulating snow: 60% 5+ inches: 30% Historic storm: 5% No snow: 5% Pretty conservative, but I can't fault it. He knows DC. He went 8-14" for PD2....lol....even Bob Ryan was 18-24" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Damn at the UK...just saw it. wow Anybody know the total precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Doug Kammerer said he was going to give totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GGEM is a crush job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Thanks Bob. I need to brush up on upper level lows and tracking those. I tend to focus on 500 and SLP. Is the upper level low at 850? Mods if this is banter feel free to move. I figure others may have similar questions as me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 He went 8-14" for PD2....lol....even Bob Ryan was 18-24" Those silly ex-PG cops... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I'm bear hugging the ggem. It's still the perfect middle between gfs/euro. Now Ukie looks great. RGEM extrapolated is solid. Nam is money. Is this really happening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 994 off OC on CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 He went 8-14" for PD2....lol....even Bob Ryan was 18-24" Doug Hill is kinda awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Those silly ex-PG cops... I thought him and Sam huff retired together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I'm bear hugging the ggem. It's still the perfect middle between gfs/euro. Now Ukie looks great. RGEM extrapolated is solid. Nam is money. Is this really happening? We'll be complaining in a week about something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I thought him and Sam huff retired together Retired off the rot gut whiskey? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 CCB'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Those silly ex-PG cops... He was defiant about it....because Sue, Bob and Topper were going HECS......I think he learned it is probably not a good idea to be scared when it is 13 degrees and 2.5" of QPF is on the way.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Uk provably indicates euro ain't moving much You hope. Anyway, GGEM is another smash job. I t hink I like it as a compromise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Ggem is my new 2nd favorite model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The ggem has the CCB around forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 CCB'd That's pretty sick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 You hope. Anyway, GGEM is another smash job. I t hink I like it as a compromise we all hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I'm bear hugging the ggem. It's still the perfect middle between gfs/euro. Now Ukie looks great. RGEM extrapolated is solid. Nam is money. Is this really happening? UKIE was awesome... NAM and GFS nice... GGEM great... just need 00z EURO to come in the same or close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Actually I thought he was quite a bit more mellow than usual (at least in the second half, what I listened in to) Ditto....Dave hasn't changed... Actually I thought he was quite a bit more mellow than usual (at least in the second half, what I listened in to) He kinda busted about TWC somewhat early...but yeah, chilled out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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