usedtobe Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Someone in the CWG comments section mentioned SR's 15:1... I think that is a tad high... 12:1 seems doable Miller a storms rarely have 15-1 ratios unless you get crazy precip reports at the airport because of the heated elements of the gauges creating mini thermals. 12-1 is more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Hi-res paste job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GFS looks twice as wet in Louisiana as compared with 18z valid for the same time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 You can see a better dig with the southern vort @ hr 30 vs 18z. NS energy looks a little more organized at the surface. Southern vort definitely more organized at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 How you can tell the difference between convective feedback errors in a model and a true model depiction of thunderstorms robbing moisture from the periphery of the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueapple Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Just to since it's so quiet here... Through 24, a bit more wet down south on the 00z GFS vs the 18z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Miller a storms rarely have 15-1 ratios unless you get crazy precip reports at the airport because of the heated elements of the gauges creating mini thermals. 12-1 is more likely. It was Jeff and I think he was mainly referring to onset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 More dig. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GFS is going to be at least a bit better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 lol...terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Why does everyone need to be carnac early in the model runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 it gets the idea of deform finally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 very nice run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 It's not worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 lol, which is it...terrible or a nice run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 It's not worse. it's better for sure..nice run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 it gets the idea of deform finally h5 has a messy close @ 60 and opened back up again. Didn't quite get the job done. So close....again... GFS/NAM dead set on an off OBX track. Not even much of a hint of a move toward the euro. Can't ignore it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 If it really does have a SE Bias it would mean a big hit. For now RIC gets it big time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 lol, which is it...terrible or a nice run Let me change personalities and I'll be right with you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Here ya go. Most exactly the same as OP or west. Only a few (under 5) east and drier. bwieuroens.png This, BTW, is what leads me to believe (hope) that the American models are struggling with quality initialization data problems. That does appear to be the root of the divergence in American solution spread, and I assume it also accounts for the run to run variability in the NAM too. There's surprising consistency among the EC and ECE members, I'm assuming that's a byproduct of the 4DVAR process and, to a lesser extent, higher resolution during the model's execution. It's interesting to note that the other 4DVAR are becoming "more EC like" (NAVGEM and GGEM) with each run with the two primary NCEP models kinda wander around while drifting in the EC's direction. It's most exciting becuase we're about to have a (relative) crap-load of CPU at our disposal. Considering it's significant handicaps the GFS does pretty damn well. "Someone's" done a darn good job of compensating for relatively poor quality of initialization, resolution and (I assume) physics as compared to the EC. You could make a decent argument that would should be even further behind the EC's verification scores. That depth and breadth of knowledges that's been gained via "trying to make the best of a bad situation (starved for CPU)" should result in some impressive benefits in the 18 - 30 month timeframe as reaources and development catch up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Wetter and a 20 mile jump NW from the 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 lol, which is it...terrible or a nice run it's a good run, Randy...not sure the track changed a whole lot but it is wetter and figured out how to form a comma head with more than drizzle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 ~0.7" for DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jums300 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GFS still gives all of MD a 4-6" storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This, BTW, is what leads me to believe (hope) that the American models are struggling with quality initialization data problems. That does appear to be the root of the divergence in American solution spread, and I assume it also accounts for the run to run variability in the NAM too. There's surprising consistency among the EC and ECE members, I'm assuming that's a byproduct of the 4DVAR process and, to a lesser extent, higher resolution during the model's execution. It's interesting to note that the other 4DVAR are becoming "more EC like" (NAVGEM and GGEM) with each run with the two primary NCEP models kinda wander around while drifting in the EC's direction. It's most exciting becuase we're about to have a (relative) crap-load of CPU at our disposal. Considering it's significant handicaps the GFS does pretty damn well. "Someone's" done a darn good job of compensating for relatively poor quality of initialization, resolution and (I assume) physics as compared to the EC. You could make a decent argument that would should be even further behind the EC's verification scores. That depth and breadth of knowledges that's been gained via "trying to make the best of a bad situation (starved for CPU)" should result in some impressive benefits in the 18 - 30 month timeframe as reaources and development catch up. sweet...thanks for the explanation and looking forward to the upgrades Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCWX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Well I have rebuilt my white board. 4x8ft It is already set up. Gonna use the 3 hour method. Looks like I am in a high amount location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GFS might not have had a big jump in totals but a notable push NW with the shield. h5 a solid improvement. It's a pretty good step. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GFS a big step in the right direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmac Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This, BTW, is what leads me to believe (hope) that the American models are struggling with quality initialization data problems. That does appear to be the root of the divergence in American solution spread, and I assume it also accounts for the run to run variability in the NAM too. There's surprising consistency among the EC and ECE members, I'm assuming that's a byproduct of the 4DVAR process and, to a lesser extent, higher resolution during the model's execution. It's interesting to note that the other 4DVAR are becoming "more EC like" (NAVGEM and GGEM) with each run with the two primary NCEP models kinda wander around while drifting in the EC's direction. It's most exciting becuase we're about to have a (relative) crap-load of CPU at our disposal. Considering it's significant handicaps the GFS does pretty damn well. "Someone's" done a darn good job of compensating for relatively poor quality of initialization, resolution and (I assume) physics as compared to the EC. You could make a decent argument that would should be even further behind the EC's verification scores. That depth and breadth of knowledges that's been gained via "trying to make the best of a bad situation (starved for CPU)" should result in some impressive benefits in the 18 - 30 month timeframe as reaources and development catch up. ender - are you guys using a BlueGene machine for compute or a teracluster running TOSS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 ~0.7" for DCA ~0.7" for DCA So I'm near an inch? I still think it underdone, looked to me like it closed off the 500h low over a good spot to get us more than an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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