yoda Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Hires NAM precip totals (this only goes out to hour 60). Looks great! Its not showing for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Snow knocking on the door 00z THUR per 00z RGEM at 48 http://meteocentre.com/models/gemreg_amer_00/P1_GZ_D5_PN_048_0000.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Its not showing for me Probably because it took me forever to just get into this thread...the server isn't showing it probably. 1.0" DCA south. 1.2" in southern Fairfax county. 1.4" northern Stafford County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 From Sterling: 00Z NAM PUTS LOW PRES IN A PRIME POSN FOR SNOW PRODUCTION IN THEMID ATLC. 850-1000 THCKNS IN MAM GO THRU 12Z THU...AND ARE SUB1300 ACRS THE CWA W/ THE XCPTN OF LWR SRN MD. WINT STORM WTCH INEFFECT FOR ENTIRE FCST AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Threat Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 To these eyes, looking a touch more GFS-like. I agree. Looking great for RIC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Probably because it took me forever to just get into this thread...the server isn't showing it probably. 1.0" DCA south. 1.2" in southern Fairfax county. 1.4" northern Stafford County. Says access denied like it is behind a pay firewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Snow knocking on the door 00z WED per 00z RGEM at 48 http://meteocentre.com/models/gemreg_amer_00/P1_GZ_D5_PN_048_0000.gif Looks more like gfs then euro at that time comparing the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 It's the NAM. It's no big deal. And GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Does anyone know the NWS' rationale for the following forecast: Wed night 80% chance of snow. Thu 80% chance of rain/snow/sleet. Precip amounts between 0.25 and 0.50". My question is the following: Why does it give a precip amount for Thursday but not for Wed night? p.s. 00 UT NAM looked very good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 And GFS... GFS has been on its own island for a while... I wouldnt really compare it just yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Good show Randy, got home late and tried to get a word on TSSN but it was already wrapping up. Anyway the Euro shows off some unstable layer from 650 to 450 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 CWG loved y'all -- check out the comments http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/02/10/major-east-coast-storm-late-wednesday-into-thursday-live-model-discussion/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 CWG loved y'all -- check out the comments http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/02/10/major-east-coast-storm-late-wednesday-into-thursday-live-model-discussion/ i saw. yay! But back to weather...I'm with wes 6-12 baby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 After looking closer at the NAM, the area of convection over obx and the health of the nw shield definitely seem to be tied together. I would expect a more solid and broad shield NW of the low center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 i saw. yay! But back to weather...I'm with wes 6-12 baby. Great show man. Enjoyed it. When Wes tosses around 6-12 #s with upside it makes me dizzy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 By 47, Canadian moving into area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 After looking closer at the NAM, the area of convection over obx and the health of the nw shield definitely seem to be tied together. I would expect a more solid and broad shield NW of the low center. nam54.JPG Convective feedback? Every weenie's hope after a lame run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Great show man. Enjoyed it. When Wes tosses around 6-12 3s with upside it makes me dizzy. Wes is being very bullish on this, which keeps me encouraged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Convective feedback? Every weenie's hope after a lame run. Lame for who? The Northern folks? The NAM was a great run here, unless you were expecting 2' of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Threat Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GFS has been on its own island for a while... I wouldnt really compare it just yet But hasn't the NAM trended back towards the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Convective feedback? Every weenie's hope after a lame run. I liked the run personally but apparently I'm in the minority. And CF stuff gets tossed around a lot. I think the snip I posted justifies the possibility more than just weenieing out. Lest not forget the euro and ens paste us all with 1.4"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hokierulz98 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 If the sounding for me at 60 hours on the Nam is like this at 60 hours and every level is below 0 except for 925mb and 900mb can this possibly still be a snow sounding or is this all sleet? 925 0.9 900 0.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 But hasn't the NAM trended back towards the GFS. No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 CWG loved y'all -- check out the comments http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/02/10/major-east-coast-storm-late-wednesday-into-thursday-live-model-discussion/ Gee, I forgot I was on, I would have been more conservative with amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Gee, I forgot I was on, I would have been more conservative with amounts. Too late man. 6-12" is your recorded call. No turning back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Too late man. 6-12" is your recorded call. No turning back. Someone in the CWG comments section mentioned SR's 15:1... I think that is a tad high... 12:1 seems doable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 LWX fantasy maxed-out paste job. Needless to say, this is "the outlier". If this were to happen, some folks in SW Virginia would get out on horseback. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Too late man. 6-12" is your recorded call. No turning back. I'll probably turn back tomorrow...though I liked what I saw on the NAM. I actually hope the Euro deeks back east a tad. Looked to me like the high resolution was gonna end up heavier than the operational. It had me at 1.20 and still had be in a really nice simulated radar band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Gee, I forgot I was on, I would have been more conservative with amounts. My bad.. should have mentioned it to you. Didn't sit down till right before it started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The 10:1 rule of thumb LWX fantasy maxed-out paste job. Needless to say, this is "the outlier". SnowAmt90Prcntl.png Of course an outlier, but I'll take a 10% chance of 20"+ GFS soon eh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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