wxmeddler Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 How dare B word. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 How do u love a run that takes a foot away You first must have a firm grasp of reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I know I sound crazy, but I am a little disappointed this didn't stay very wet. The temps are not very cold. If QPF drops to .50-.75 over 20 hours we won't do well... To get big snows DCA and BWI need mega-precip. NAM isn't a 20hr event. Most falls in ~10hrs. @ despairing because the NAM didn't hold it's 20-30" solution 60hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 How do u love a run that takes a foot away True. Need it to hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 How dare B word. Appears to be gusty though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Judging by some of the initial comments, I was expecting to see a whiff on the NAM, not a 1.15" QPF bomb @ DCA. I'll take that and be happy with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lester Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I know I sound crazy, but I am a little disappointed this didn't stay very wet. The temps are not very cold. If QPF drops to .50-.75 over 20 hours we won't do well... To get big snows DCA and BWI need mega-precip. It's the NAM. It's no big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Pay attention dude. You're hosting. I got dis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Definitely dry. Disappointed, but I'm not ready to lock this in. Wait until all players are sampled.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Lol...only in this forum can you go from a fantasy 20" to almost a realistic foot and there be disappointment. Sometimes I wish I was in NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Lol...only in this forum can you go from a fantasy 20" to almost a realistic foot and there be disappointment. Sometimes I wish I was in NE now you're hitting low and hard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Geez, with some of these comments! Come on! Even if it is trolling for humor. I thought we're in storm mode, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I love the use of the word "dry" to describe a 1-1.25 QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TerpWeather Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NAM4 is pushing 0.7 QPF by 4a Thursday at DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Threat Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I'm new but it seems that the latest run is trending south and east. Is this right? That sounds good for cent. Va! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This place is loltastic. Obviously the NAM wasn't going to show another 20"+ snowstorm at 0z. It shows 1.1/1.2" of QPF at DCA and people are complaining that they're disappointed with how dry it is? Being 50-100 miles north of the bullseye 48 hours from the event is A-OK with me. I'd lock this NAM up and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I'm new but it seems that the latest run is trending south and east. Is this right? That sounds good for cent. Va! To these eyes, looking a touch more GFS-like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NAM4 is pushing 0.7 QPF by 4a Thursday at DCA Where are you finding that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Nam for DCA 1.11 IAD .95 JYO .80 Ji on the chair Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 IMO- the nam is a much better tool once things are organized and moving along. This is a complicated energy phase that hasn't even begun yet. The nam isn't the right tool to use from birth of the system and then out 2.5+ days. Every run will have larger jumps than the globals past 48 hours. Blending the global guidance and taking considering for the biases then drawing a line is the smart approach. Not looking at the nam every 6 hours. This time tomorrow the NAM will be become pretty important. Right now? nah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This is pretty sad. The NAM is a short-range model. Look at the first 36-48 hours of h5. Through 36 hours h5 southern vort is slower and northern vort is stronger. Not sure what it is doing on the surface but big improvements from 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 the NAM is drier because it is less wrapped up at h5. Never closes off. Don't really see a good reason for it to go this way. Wait for the rest of the 00z suite before getting the least bit concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TerpWeather Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Where are you finding that? wxbell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Nam for DCA 1.11 IAD .95 JYO .80 Ji on the chair I just want it to be cold so we get better rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Wes..."conservative for now, 6-12" for the cities, more to the west". Would be more conservative if writing for CWG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 An inch of qpf at dca is fantastic! I'll take it. If I get 5 inches of snow and then sleet after that, I will be absolutely beside myself with joy!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I came to check this forum just to share your joy on the awesome NAM run for you, instead I see people disappointed...Da hell?! I'm just waiting for the RGEM to come in range, thats the only model I care about for the short range...it's been amazing this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 It always ends up in Westminster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 4k NAM has 95 from Baltimore to DC in the .8 to 1.0 range by h60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 wxbell Ah okies... NAM HI-RES looks pretty good at 09z and 12z on its MSLP QPF maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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