snowfan Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Sorry, on phone, can someone post kocin map?its a page or two back and another few pages back from that. Been posted a few times today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Bob is wrong but I won't give him the link to keep him sane. Here's 72. eps_qpf_slp_25_se_13.png eps_qpf_slp_50_se_13.png Lot of mixy and rainy looking track members in the mix along with a few nice tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 21zSREFs24hrQPF2-10-14.gif 1 inch line creeping closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 21zSREFs24hrQPF2-10-14.gif They keep getting better with each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 wpc heavy snow disco from 540 pm LOW TO MODERATE PROBABILITIES OF 4 TO 8 INCHES SNOW WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO INCLUDE THE EASTERN FACING SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND FOOTHILLS TOWARD WASHINGTON DC...WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF A FOOT OF SNOW FOR CENTRAL-WESTERN VIRGINIA. OTHER SOLUTIONS FOR THE LOW TRACK AND ASSOCIATED SNOW/ICE WERE CONSIDERED BUT ULTIMATELY DISCOUNTED DUE TO MODEL CONSENSUSING AND CONSIDERING THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE PATTERN THAT WOULD HELP TO RULE OUT THE MOST WESTWARD SOLUTIONS. OF THESE...THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO LIE WITHIN THE WESTERN ONE QUARTER TO ONE FIFTH OF THE SOLUTION ENVELOPE...WITH ABOUT A 100 MILE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS LOW TRACKS BY 00Z FRI. CLEARLY....THIS DIFFERENCES HAS LARGE IMPLICATIONS FOR ICE/SNOW ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 SREFs look like a nice blend between GFS and Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 SREF good and cold at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Just stunned. I don't even know what to say. Just wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 SREF good and cold at least. Yup, SREF looks pretty good..1" line just at the door Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NAM time. Let's see what it's crazy solution is tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 So they are discounting the euro? Am I reading that discussion correctly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 My bet is that we get NAMed again more than before, little more west and wet Also Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 3s If I were running a weather based TV channel, the reality show would be live broadcasts of models coming in, with mets fighting over meaning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Just a note on the SREF, it is still an ensemble mean folks. Have to still take spread, etc into account like you would with any ensemble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 My bet is that we get NAMed again more than before, little more west and wet Also Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 3s If I were running a weather based TV channel, the reality show would be live broadcasts of models coming in, with mets fighting over meaning Not lying I'd watch it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Unfortunately the useful range of models in your backyard is the exact time it take the shortwave to get from the west coast to here, so quick moving ones like this don't have as much of a window. I can see it jumping 75 miles either way between tonight and 12z tomorrow. I hope the euro is correct but it wasn't good last time it was an outlier at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Unfortunately the useful range of models in your backyard is the exact time it take the shortwave to get from the west coast to here, so quick moving ones like this don't have as much of a window. I can see it jumping 75 miles either way between tonight and 12z tomorrow. I hope the euro is correct but it wasn't good last time it was an outlier at this range. I'd argue that the GFS is more of the outlier. The Op Euro matches it's ENS more than the GFS matches it's. The other models seem to be a mix of the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Kocin is the Jimmy Hendrix of big snow storms. :guitar: :guitar: :guitar: :guitar: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 So they are discounting the euro? Am I reading that discussion correctly? I took as a suggestion the the euro is on the western edge of multi-model solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 21z sref snow plumes dca Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I want the 0z NAM to match the 18Z exactly. I want the NAM to come in wetter and colder... Why stop now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 At 30h, NAM looks juicier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Wes just full-on stated what he suggested earlier in this thread-- that even the GFS solution should/would have included a 1"+ area in the Mid-Atlantic based on what the other heights are showing.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Nam looks much slower than 18z with the northern stream through 28hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I want the 0z NAM to match the 18Z exactly. It won't and it already doesn't. Srn stream a bit more south...the northern stream a touch slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Probably should phase slightly east of the 18z run... northern energy just a tad bit slower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Probably should phase slightly east of the 18z run... northern energy just a tad bit slower I am not too sure about that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Through 54 it's very similar... maybe a touch east or drier but similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 No posts in 11 minutes, was it that bad? On phone so can't check noaa website There is a radio show and it is tough to post tonight... site is very slow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 snow hits DC at 9-10 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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