nj2va Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Those are mslp anomaly maps. you can draw conclusions based on op runs. For example, if the op run shows a decent low pressure in lala land, the anomaly maps will look like a big broad area of lp. Basically a swath of blue with no organized contours. All they are is an average SLP anomaly of all 51 members at a point in time. The more support for single low or high pressure, the more defined it becomes on the means. When you see tight clustering of members it starts to represent a smoothed look of a regular op surface panel. Does this make sense? Makes perfect sense, thanks a lot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I don't think any pay sites have individual member surface panels. At least none that I know of. And it would probably be in my best interests to never have access to them. Adding 51 new panels to stare at may send me over the edge. lol this storm is going to put us all over the edge with either lack of sleep or maniacal frustration if it busts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Bob is wrong but I won't give him the link to keep him sane. Here's 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Well, let me make you even more suspicious by eliminating 2 from your list-- 2/96 was definitely not one storm. There was an 8-12 hour break between the two events. 12/66 didn't reach 8" at DCA. But, the GFS isn't really nailing DC either.... Thanks for the clarification. I thought I had seen some 0.75"+ QPF pretty close by on the morning and afternoon runs. Have to believe being on the NW edge of that would be good for a 6-9" snowfall. Though not at DCA, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Anyone in the know want to elaborate on what the EC ENS cluster looked like on the 12z run? Are the really as tight around the OP as the mean makes it seem? Someone can correct me if I'm wrong but the ec ens definitely has majority support a rapidly deepening cyclone with a relatively narrow track envelope from nc to of the nj coast. however, weaker solutions can be much further east or west or wherever but they won't affect the means nearly as much as stronger solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Kocin going with the Euro track there? Or a compromise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Is that KOCIN on the name stamp Paul Kocin...the one and only? Yes it is. And that map is absolutely beautiful. 996 at the mouth of the bay means we get bashed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 OMG ian. If you send me that link it means you hate me. Nice looking bunch of solutions though. I'm in. PM me the link. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Yes it is. And that map is absolutely beautiful. 996 at the mouth of the bay means we get bashed. Wow...that map with his name on it...that would be one to have autographed and framed...it's like a dream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Bob is wrong but I won't give him the link to keep him sane. Here's 72. site? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 site? It is from WxBell the pay service. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 OMG ian. If you send me that link it means you hate me. Nice looking bunch of solutions though. I'm in. PM me the link. Thanks. I just saw today for the first time myself. Maybe new? Also for nj2va (left computer) https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/432950650331074560 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I love it... All model pretty much in agreement (even the NAM now) but one.. GFS. Everyone is still on edge because it will not budge. Because of our climo... everyone is on ledge until the GFS comes around. Also does not help when a Met tells us that the SW in the Pac has not been well sampled yet and could make all the other models flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Bob is wrong but I won't give him the link to keep him sane. Here's 72. It's cool to see from these members that the slower solutions (like the operational) are the further west ones while the slightly faster ones all look amazing. Kocin's map actually looks spot on with several of the slightly faster, strong solutions... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 It is from WxBell the pay service. ahh, thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I just saw today for the first time myself. Maybe new? Also for nj2va (left computer) https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/432950650331074560 Oh god, it's new and I found it...I'm glad it's mid feb and not early december. I may not sleep next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Oh god, it's new and I found it...I'm glad it's mid feb and not early december. I may not sleep next year. If it is a Nino you may need some serious caffeine boosters besides coffee and red bull. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I love it... All model pretty much in agreement (even the NAM now) but one.. GFS. Everyone is still on edge because it will not budge. Because of our climo... everyone is on ledge until the GFS comes around. Also does not help when a Met tells us that the SW in the Pac has not been well sampled yet and could make all the other models flip. My bar is the 41" at dca promised by cobb 18z nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Oh god, it's new and I found it...I'm glad it's mid feb and not early december. I may not sleep next year. Its Not like you slept this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I just saw today for the first time myself. Maybe new? Also for nj2va (left computer) https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/432950650331074560 Thanks Ian. Interesting how 0 members support the GFS solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The GFS may kill me if it doesn't cave soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 It's cool to see from these members that the slower solutions (like the operational) are the further west ones while the slightly faster ones all look amazing. Kocin's map actually looks spot on with several of the slightly faster, strong solutions...Yeah looks that way. I didn't look that close but seems the op is on the western side of many of them at least. I'm on the Kocin train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Oh god, it's new and I found it...I'm glad it's mid feb and not early december. I may not sleep next year.We need him to add snowmaps for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Yeah looks that way. I didn't look that close but seems the op is on the western side of many of them at least. I'm on the Kocin train. You are just sucking up because of the conference, we all know you hate snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The GFS may kill me if it doesn't cave soon. Kocin isn't worried...he pulled an Obi Wan with that map and told the GFS "this isn't the storm you are looking for...move along" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Yeah looks that way. I didn't look that close but seems the op is on the western side of many of them at least. I'm on the Kocin train. hr78-84 look so good with the comma/deform on many members. Someone is going to get pummeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 In Kocin we trust... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I posted yesterday my thoughts which appear to be transpiring on the latest models. In fact, my analysis may have been too conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This is very interesting. Now we know where to find the RPM: Ryan Maue tweeted out earlier, WSI created the "RPM" moniker, on WxBell it's the WRF ARW, for subscribers in case you wanted to look at it instead of relying on WSI postings, it's located here: http://models.weathe.../wrf/wrf_nc.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Sorry, on phone, can someone post kocin map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.