gymengineer Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Not really two 0z ago it was pretty awful. 12z yday it was perfect. Last two runs a bit west of that. Small spew range tho. Gotcha. And of course it wouldn't have been identical run after run--- just that generally it's shown a pretty small window of the low track. I remember now the 0Z run you're talking about, the delmarva run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 79% chance of 4 inches of snow in DC per LWX. Can't remember the last time I saw a number like that 48+ hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The GFS is wrong still IMO as depicted at the sfc. I mean.. I hope. I don't want it to be like that but I'd rather it look like that than the Euro for MBY at this pt. Yes, I think they are the general bounds of the expected at this time and the Euro is probably more right than the GFS. I'm certainly more in the Euro camp than GFS but I think Ohleary makes a good point. The important shortwave still hasn't made it into the U.S. Until it does we're relying heavily of Satellite data. Good data but not as good as raobs as the latter have better vertical resolution. Until that shortwave gets inland and we know what is directly upstream, all model forecasts are suspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I'm certainly more in the Euro camp than GFS but I think Ohleary makes a good point. The important shortwave still hasn't made it into the U.S. Until it does we're relying heavily of Satellite data. Good data but not as good as raobs as the latter have better vertical resolution. Until that shortwave gets inland and we know what is directly upstream, all model forecasts are suspect. Thanks Wes. Will the models have better data for the 0z runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Didn't see it mentioned earlier... but 12z GGEM ensemble mean was pretty nice 60-84... looks like .8 to 1.0 QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 1/8/88 showing up...hadn't occurred to me...probably a good one in many respects http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=EC&model=GFS212&fhr=F060&flg= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biodhokie Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I'm certainly more in the Euro camp than GFS but I think Ohleary makes a good point. The important shortwave still hasn't made it into the U.S. Until it does we're relying heavily of Satellite data. Good data but not as good as raobs as the latter have better vertical resolution. Until that shortwave gets inland and we know what is directly upstream, all model forecasts are suspect. So does the shortwave essentially act like a wall keeping the low from moving westward as the nor'easter low spins up? Kind of like how a front repels cyclones from the eastern seaboard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Anyone still be happy with 4 inches of snow bob chill? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 4th down http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=EC&model=GFS212&fhr=F072&flg= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I'm certainly more in the Euro camp than GFS but I think Ohleary makes a good point. The important shortwave still hasn't made it into the U.S. Until it does we're relying heavily of Satellite data. Good data but not as good as raobs as the latter have better vertical resolution. Until that shortwave gets inland and we know what is directly upstream, all model forecasts are suspect.True. Tho so much of the data is satellite derived I'm not ever sure how much difference the obs make. Better than none of course. GFS has consistently had a meh sfc for the other levels.. Haven't looked close at 18z. I'm kinda in weenie mode, so maybe irrational. The euro would be fine as is if that's what I get.. But I'll hope it shifts east and I think there is some reason for hope there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Well this might be a first...lwx goes with a max potential of 20" around dc. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winter/images/SnowAmt90Prcntl.png I know I'm from the CPA forum, but help me understand this map. It shows accumulations, but then at the bottom lists 90th percentile. I've never seen a map like that out of State College or Mount Holly. I'm not sure what's meant by 90th Percentile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 So does the shortwave essentially act like a wall keeping the low from moving westward as the nor'easter low spins up? Kind of like how a front repels cyclones from the eastern seaboard? No, the shortwave that amkes the gulf wave lift north is not yet in the U.S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 4th down http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=EC&model=GFS212&fhr=F072&flg= #3, 6, 7, 11, 12, 15 would also all be fine with me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 4th down http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=EC&model=GFS212&fhr=F072&flg= I saw PD1 in one of them earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 #3, 6, 7, 11, 12, 15 would also all be fine with me I saw PD1 in one of them earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Anyone still be happy with 4 inches of snow bob chill? 4.5 to be exact. I'm going with the ggem right now so I'm good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 No way this is on the same level as that storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 There's been a ton of good analogs in there sprinkled about. 4th down http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=EC&model=GFS212&fhr=F072&flg= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I know I'm from the CPA forum, but help me understand this map. It shows accumulations, but then at the bottom lists 90th percentile. I've never seen a map like that out of State College or Mount Holly. I'm not sure what's meant by 90th Percentile. That is an experimental product from Sterling. They are part of an experimental test bed to explore the best methods on communicating the highest/lowest snowfall probabilities to emergency management officials. I'm part of the feedback group. PM me if you want more info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Is there any chance we see the potential for the "B" word to be used for this one...?The pressure gradient is a bit underwhelming with the high schooling away but looked like some potential for good wind as it passes. Hard to go there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CamdenfromMAWP Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I know I'm from the CPA forum, but help me understand this map. It shows accumulations, but then at the bottom lists 90th percentile. I've never seen a map like that out of State College or Mount Holly. I'm not sure what's meant by 90th Percentile. 90th percentile is the max potential. It means 90% chance it won't happen and 10% it will (did I get that right?). Pretty impressive showing 20" this far out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 18z GEFS mean as impotent as the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 90th percentile is the max potential. It means 90% chance it won't happen and 10% it will (did I get that right?). Pretty impressive showing 20" this far out... Kind of, but not quite. Perhaps it's parsing words, but the 90th percentile means there's a 90% chance of the amount being *less* than that value. It's an attempt to estimate an upper bound of what you can expect with the current forecast guidance. So I wouldn't quite word it as a 90% chance of it not happening. And yes, 20" as an upper bound is, well, impressive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 18z GEFS mean as impotent as the OP The euro ensemble mean still is west of where we'd like but does look to have a decent 850 track. I'd believe it more than the 18Z GEFS mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Most of the individ ensembles of the 12z GGEM at 84 (accum snow depth) are very nice (as in 6"+)... there is only 1 ugly member Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The euro ensemble mean still is west of where we'd like but does look to have a decent 850 track. I'd believe it more than the 18Z GEFS mean. How does it compare to the Euro operational run? More or less the same? Good to know the 850-mb track has a good look for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 We already have pretty much every model showing 4"+ in the entire area give or take a couple solutions. Isn't that already a really big win for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 There's only 2 members less than 1"+ on the latest EPS. Mean went up to nearly 1.6". This is a pretty big argument against the GFS/GEFS drier solutions. The mean basically paints all of central and NOVA in 1.6 and all of MD except far west in 1.4 - 1.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 There's only 2 members less than 1"+ on the latest EPS. Mean went up to nearly 1.6". This is a pretty big argument against the GFS/GEFS drier solutions. The mean basically paints all of central and NOVA in 1.6 and all of MD except far west in 1.4 - 1.5 Interesting. So still sort of two model camps in terms of QPF amount at least. That's remarkably high for the EPS ensemble mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 4th down http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=EC&model=GFS212&fhr=F072&flg= what storm was it we had the bogus model run that was redacted, 12/21/09? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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