eurojosh Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 GFS looks good for 4-6" for DCA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I guess about 0.6" for DCA...in any other storm we'd be psyched...hopefully tonight or tomorrow morning we'll see it kick up into the 1" range NCEP maps running slow. From what you're seeing, is it similar to its 12Z cycle, or a fair bit different? Just looking at what you say for the QPF at DCA, sounds kinda similar? Though evolution may not be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 a 22 hour light snow event...with 4 mile viz....and spotty street accumulations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 a 22 hour light snow event...with 4 mile viz....and spotty street accumulations I doubt the ncep parking lot even gets covered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 a 22 hour light snow event...with 4 mile viz....and spotty street accumulations I'm out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Vort never closes. Pretty broad as it moves under us. It js definitely the least amped at h5 of all models attm. It's really close though. Based on all other guidance it's an outlier for the opposite reasons the euro is an outlier. I'm going with the ggem. It's right in the middle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 So a line has really been drawn between the GFS and every other model. Two days from the event ; you would think the GFS would have been honed in by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Well this might be a first...lwx goes with a max potential of 20" around dc. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winter/images/SnowAmt90Prcntl.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 NWS has really stepped it up a notch. I don't even know where to begin with their calling for a 39% for 18"+ in Cville/Staunton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Well this might be a first...lwx goes with a max potential of 20" around dc. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winter/images/SnowAmt90Prcntl.png They are probably more right than the GFS depiction, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Well this might be a first...lwx goes with a max potential of 20" around dc. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winter/images/SnowAmt90Prcntl.png saving the day by day snow amount for the low/high potential to see what happens. should be fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 They are probably more right than the GFS depiction, I guess. I like that idea, but it just seems like too often their actual forecast matches the max map. Who knows, maybe they've learned how to use it better now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 GFS qpf for DC look to be 0.5-0.75 which is still pretty sweet given that it's the driest model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 GFS qpf for DC look to be 0.5-0.75 which is still pretty sweet given that it's the driest model. 6+ for now might not be a bad idea, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The GFS depicts a nearly stationary storm system with less qpf. If it slows down like that, and one of the other models wins out.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Over 2 inches vs. a half an inch....... within 54 hours from onset.......... in the year 2014. Terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I haven't even looked at the GFS but I'm glad it's still east. Did I mention the Euro is an outlier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I haven't even looked at the GFS but I'm glad it's still east. Did I mention the Euro is an outlier? It was also an outlier for much of the last 4 days when it had the storm and no other model did.... I dont want an eastern track with light snow...the GFS solution is awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I haven't even looked at the GFS but I'm glad it's still east. Did I mention the Euro is an outlier? Aren't both the GFS and Euro outliers? Seems like nothing has changed since around 06Z except the NAM has gone viral with its snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Over 2 inches vs. a half an inch....... within 54 hours from onset.......... in the year 2014. Terrible. this stuff happens up north all the time...it really isnt that unusual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Aren't both the GFS and Euro outliers? Seems like nothing has changed since around 06Z except the NAM has gone viral with its snow. maybe the Canadian is the most sensible solution as of now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Well this might be a first...lwx goes with a max potential of 20" around dc. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winter/images/SnowAmt90Prcntl.png Not to be a downer, but the minimum is 1.9 in DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 this stuff happens up north all the time...it really isnt that unusual It does, but if the GFS is right and we get into the deformation zone, there will be a foot of snow with intense rates whether it is forecasting them or not. Of course, DCA and your back yard may not end up in the band but someone will. More often the max seems north and west of where it is forecast. If I were you, I'd be happy with the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 i'd rather get sunny and 60 than 0.6" of liquid over 22 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Aren't both the GFS and Euro outliers? Seems like nothing has changed since around 06Z except the NAM has gone viral with its snow. The GFS is wrong still IMO as depicted at the sfc. I mean.. I hope. I don't want it to be like that but I'd rather it look like that than the Euro for MBY at this pt. Yes, I think they are the general bounds of the expected at this time and the Euro is probably more right than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 It does, but if the GFS is right and we get into the deformation zone, there will be a foot of snow with intense rates whether it is forecasting them or not. Of course, DCA and your back yard may not end up in the band but someone will. More often the max seems north and west of where it is forecast. If I were you, I'd be happy with the run. true...though I am not really taking the run too seriously...It will come west and get wetter...maybe even tonight...euro could also cave a bit too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Over 2 inches vs. a half an inch....... within 54 hours from onset.......... in the year 2014. Terrible. Your post. Terrible. The energy/wave won't come over SW Canada/NW CONUS until 12Z tomorrow or so, it's amazingly still over the E Pac...maybe differences get ironed out at that point. Also, looks like a WSR flight in the Gulf tomorrow night to try to sample southern stream piece. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 So the Euro has been showing more or less the same track since Friday 12Z's run, just getting wetter and wetter, right? So that's 7 runs in a row? Or am I forgetting an off run in there somewhere... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 So the Euro has been showing more or less the same track since Friday 12Z's run, just getting wetter and wetter, right? So that's 7 runs in a row? Or am I forgetting an off run in there somewhere... No. You're right. And the Ens have basically backed it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 So the Euro has been showing more or less the same track since Friday 12Z's run, just getting wetter and wetter, right? So that's 7 runs in a row? Or am I forgetting an off run in there somewhere...Not really two 0z ago it was pretty awful. 12z yday it was perfect. Last two runs a bit west of that. Small spew range tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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