stormtracker Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 For entertainment purposes only. Read at your own risk. Ridiculous! 12Z NAM for DCA: 140213/0700Z 67 03010KT 23.8F SNOW 10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007 10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0140213/0800Z 68 03009KT 23.6F SNOW 12:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.053 12:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06 100| 0| 0140213/0900Z 69 03009KT 23.6F SNOW 12:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.108 12:1| 2.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.17 100| 0| 0140213/1000Z 70 02010KT 23.8F SNOW 17:1| 2.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.144 14:1| 4.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.31 100| 0| 0140213/1100Z 71 02011KT 24.2F SNOW 27:1| 3.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.127 18:1| 7.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.44 100| 0| 0140213/1200Z 72 02012KT 24.7F SNOW 22:1| 1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.082 19:1| 9.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.52 90| 10| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---140213/1300Z 73 01013KT 25.6F SNPL 19:1| 1.4|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.077 19:1| 11.1|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.60 84| 16| 0140213/1400Z 74 36015KT 27.8F SNPL 6:1| 0.4|| 0.10|| 0.00|| 0.069 17:1| 11.5|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 0.67 25| 75| 0140213/1500Z 75 36014KT 29.0F SNOW 15:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.060 17:1| 12.4|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 0.73 89| 11| 0140213/1600Z 76 36014KT 28.5F SNOW 18:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.085 17:1| 14.0|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 0.81 100| 0| 0140213/1700Z 77 35015KT 28.7F SNOW 18:1| 2.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.122 17:1| 16.2|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 0.93 100| 0| 0140213/1800Z 78 35014KT 29.2F SNOW 17:1| 1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.104 17:1| 18.0|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 1.04 100| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---140213/1900Z 79 35013KT 30.3F SNOW 16:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.094 17:1| 19.5|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 1.13 100| 0| 0140213/2000Z 80 35013KT 31.2F SNOW 19:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.094 17:1| 21.2|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 1.23 100| 0| 0140213/2100Z 81 34013KT 32.1F SNOW 18:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.064 17:1| 22.4|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 1.29 100| 0| 0140213/2200Z 82 34013KT 32.4F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028 17:1| 22.4|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 1.32 87| 0| 13140213/2300Z 83 34014KT 33.0F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013 17:1| 22.4|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 1.33 71| 0| 29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 For entertainment purposes only. Read at your own risk. Ridiculous! 12Z NAM for DCA: 140213/0700Z 67 03010KT 23.8F SNOW 10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007 10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0 140213/0800Z 68 03009KT 23.6F SNOW 12:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.053 12:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06 100| 0| 0 140213/0900Z 69 03009KT 23.6F SNOW 12:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.108 12:1| 2.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.17 100| 0| 0 140213/1000Z 70 02010KT 23.8F SNOW 17:1| 2.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.144 14:1| 4.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.31 100| 0| 0 140213/1100Z 71 02011KT 24.2F SNOW 27:1| 3.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.127 18:1| 7.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.44 100| 0| 0 140213/1200Z 72 02012KT 24.7F SNOW 22:1| 1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.082 19:1| 9.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.52 90| 10| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 140213/1300Z 73 01013KT 25.6F SNPL 19:1| 1.4|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.077 19:1| 11.1|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.60 84| 16| 0 140213/1400Z 74 36015KT 27.8F SNPL 6:1| 0.4|| 0.10|| 0.00|| 0.069 17:1| 11.5|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 0.67 25| 75| 0 140213/1500Z 75 36014KT 29.0F SNOW 15:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.060 17:1| 12.4|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 0.73 89| 11| 0 140213/1600Z 76 36014KT 28.5F SNOW 18:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.085 17:1| 14.0|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 0.81 100| 0| 0 140213/1700Z 77 35015KT 28.7F SNOW 18:1| 2.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.122 17:1| 16.2|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 0.93 100| 0| 0 140213/1800Z 78 35014KT 29.2F SNOW 17:1| 1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.104 17:1| 18.0|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 1.04 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 140213/1900Z 79 35013KT 30.3F SNOW 16:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.094 17:1| 19.5|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 1.13 100| 0| 0 140213/2000Z 80 35013KT 31.2F SNOW 19:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.094 17:1| 21.2|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 1.23 100| 0| 0 140213/2100Z 81 34013KT 32.1F SNOW 18:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.064 17:1| 22.4|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 1.29 100| 0| 0 140213/2200Z 82 34013KT 32.4F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028 17:1| 22.4|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 1.32 87| 0| 13 140213/2300Z 83 34014KT 33.0F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013 17:1| 22.4|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 1.33 71| 0| 29 BUFKIT is useless for us. It's programmed with Tug Hill powder snow ratios. I'd bet my bank account DC doesn't see 17-19:1 ratios in this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 For entertainment purposes only. Read at your own risk. Ridiculous! 12Z NAM for DCA: 140213/0700Z 67 03010KT 23.8F SNOW 10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007 10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0 140213/0800Z 68 03009KT 23.6F SNOW 12:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.053 12:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06 100| 0| 0 140213/0900Z 69 03009KT 23.6F SNOW 12:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.108 12:1| 2.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.17 100| 0| 0 140213/1000Z 70 02010KT 23.8F SNOW 17:1| 2.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.144 14:1| 4.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.31 100| 0| 0 140213/1100Z 71 02011KT 24.2F SNOW 27:1| 3.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.127 18:1| 7.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.44 100| 0| 0 140213/1200Z 72 02012KT 24.7F SNOW 22:1| 1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.082 19:1| 9.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.52 90| 10| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 140213/1300Z 73 01013KT 25.6F SNPL 19:1| 1.4|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.077 19:1| 11.1|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.60 84| 16| 0 140213/1400Z 74 36015KT 27.8F SNPL 6:1| 0.4|| 0.10|| 0.00|| 0.069 17:1| 11.5|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 0.67 25| 75| 0 140213/1500Z 75 36014KT 29.0F SNOW 15:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.060 17:1| 12.4|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 0.73 89| 11| 0 140213/1600Z 76 36014KT 28.5F SNOW 18:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.085 17:1| 14.0|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 0.81 100| 0| 0 140213/1700Z 77 35015KT 28.7F SNOW 18:1| 2.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.122 17:1| 16.2|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 0.93 100| 0| 0 140213/1800Z 78 35014KT 29.2F SNOW 17:1| 1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.104 17:1| 18.0|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 1.04 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 140213/1900Z 79 35013KT 30.3F SNOW 16:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.094 17:1| 19.5|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 1.13 100| 0| 0 140213/2000Z 80 35013KT 31.2F SNOW 19:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.094 17:1| 21.2|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 1.23 100| 0| 0 140213/2100Z 81 34013KT 32.1F SNOW 18:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.064 17:1| 22.4|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 1.29 100| 0| 0 140213/2200Z 82 34013KT 32.4F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028 17:1| 22.4|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 1.32 87| 0| 13 140213/2300Z 83 34014KT 33.0F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013 17:1| 22.4|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 1.33 71| 0| 29 27:1 Ratios? Uh..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 For entertainment purposes only. Read at your own risk. Ridiculous! 12Z NAM for DCA: 140213/0700Z 67 03010KT 23.8F SNOW 10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007 10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0 140213/0800Z 68 03009KT 23.6F SNOW 12:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.053 12:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06 100| 0| 0 140213/0900Z 69 03009KT 23.6F SNOW 12:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.108 12:1| 2.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.17 100| 0| 0 140213/1000Z 70 02010KT 23.8F SNOW 17:1| 2.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.144 14:1| 4.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.31 100| 0| 0 140213/1100Z 71 02011KT 24.2F SNOW 27:1| 3.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.127 18:1| 7.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.44 100| 0| 0 140213/1200Z 72 02012KT 24.7F SNOW 22:1| 1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.082 19:1| 9.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.52 90| 10| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 140213/1300Z 73 01013KT 25.6F SNPL 19:1| 1.4|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.077 19:1| 11.1|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.60 84| 16| 0 140213/1400Z 74 36015KT 27.8F SNPL 6:1| 0.4|| 0.10|| 0.00|| 0.069 17:1| 11.5|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 0.67 25| 75| 0 140213/1500Z 75 36014KT 29.0F SNOW 15:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.060 17:1| 12.4|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 0.73 89| 11| 0 140213/1600Z 76 36014KT 28.5F SNOW 18:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.085 17:1| 14.0|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 0.81 100| 0| 0 140213/1700Z 77 35015KT 28.7F SNOW 18:1| 2.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.122 17:1| 16.2|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 0.93 100| 0| 0 140213/1800Z 78 35014KT 29.2F SNOW 17:1| 1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.104 17:1| 18.0|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 1.04 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 140213/1900Z 79 35013KT 30.3F SNOW 16:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.094 17:1| 19.5|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 1.13 100| 0| 0 140213/2000Z 80 35013KT 31.2F SNOW 19:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.094 17:1| 21.2|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 1.23 100| 0| 0 140213/2100Z 81 34013KT 32.1F SNOW 18:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.064 17:1| 22.4|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 1.29 100| 0| 0 140213/2200Z 82 34013KT 32.4F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028 17:1| 22.4|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 1.32 87| 0| 13 140213/2300Z 83 34014KT 33.0F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013 17:1| 22.4|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 1.33 71| 0| 29 That's definitely some good entertainment...22" at DCA, yeah, sure! But fun to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 BUFKIT is useless for us. It's programmed with Tug Hill powder snow ratios. I'd bet my bank account DC doesn't see 17-19:1 ratios in this storm. Wasn't it giving like 50"+ for Feb 2010 at times? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Wasn't it giving like 50"+ for Feb 2010 at times? I was just going to ask if anyone remembers what it gave DCA for the Feb. 5-6, 2010 storm. Yeah, bet it was outlandish too. I know there was some output pushing 40" in parts of MD just north of DC, and in fact a couple of reports were close to 40" I recall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 GFS ens mems look a little less suppressed than at 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Wasn't it giving like 50"+ for Feb 2010 at times? Yeah, maybe even up near 60". Just ludicrous. We got nice powder back a couple weeks ago and even that averaged out to probably ~15-17:1 for most of the area over the length of the storm. With 850s probably only a couple degrees below freezing and the entire column not particularly frigid, we probably won't see optimal dendrite growth until the ULL passage. So the first wave of precip will probably have our typical 9-11:1 ratios and maybe the ULL snows might get us 12-15:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I'd say we're in good shape with the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCWX Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I was the one who reported 37 inches in Front Royal VA on the Feb 5-6 storm. I used the white board method. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 GFS ensemble is kind to DC and even generous to central VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I'd say we're in good shape with the GEFS. gefs.JPG Still, too many warm runs in there though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I'd say we're in good shape with the GEFS. gefs.JPG only two or three show a miss so very little spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 GEFS in the right where we want it camp too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Still, too many warm runs in there though. It's lower resolution. Don't worry about that. SLP track tells the story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 It's lower resolution. Don't worry about that. SLP track tells the story. Thanks. Yeah, pleased that the track looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 GEFS in the right where we want it camp too. No doubt. Looks good to me. We're done with the GEFS for its usefulness at this point. It won't add much value going forward. The envelope is pretty tight now. Op runs and short range can now take the torch and freak us out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 CMC precip meteogram Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 If the low bombs like the euro says 925 temps won't be an issue. Gfs doesn't deepen the low as fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 No doubt. Looks good to me. We're done with the GEFS for its usefulness at this point. It won't add much value going forward. The envelope is pretty tight now. Op runs and short range can now take the torch and freak us out. Someone's gonna get demolished. I'm pumped. Let's get time to speed up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Ugh, I get fringed in the worst sort of way. Plenty of precip and no cold air to go with it. Nothing worse than a cold rain while it's pouring snow on the other side of the bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattskiva Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Yeah, maybe even up near 60". Just ludicrous. We got nice powder back a couple weeks ago and even that averaged out to probably ~15-17:1 for most of the area over the length of the storm. With 850s probably only a couple degrees below freezing and the entire column not particularly frigid, we probably won't see optimal dendrite growth until the ULL passage. So the first wave of precip will probably have our typical 9-11:1 ratios and maybe the ULL snows might get us 12-15:1. But isn't the 2010 storm a bad example for arguing that bufkit ratios are too high? From what I recall, ratios were extremely high especially at IAD - I thought the QPF ended up much lower than forecasts but snowfall totals were high anyway. I believe the QPF was well under 2" at IAD with 32" accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Someone's gonna get demolished. I'm pumped. Let's get time to speed up. we're like 54 hours from onset..not too bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 But isn't the 2010 storm a bad example for arguing that bufkit ratios are too high? From what I recall, ratios were extremely high especially at IAD - I thought the QPF ended up much lower than forecasts but snowfall totals were high anyway. I believe the QPF was well under 2" at IAD with 32" accumulation. Actually IAD had over 3.00" QPF from the Feb. 5-6, 2010 event, and I think the ratios for awhile were surprisingly a bit less than 10:1. But yeah, they got an incredible 32" out of that even with lower ratios for a time, simply because it was literally pouring snow overnight on the 5th. I think BWI got well over 2.00" liquid equivalent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 But isn't the 2010 storm a bad example for arguing that bufkit ratios are too high? From what I recall, ratios were extremely high especially at IAD - I thought the QPF ended up much lower than forecasts but snowfall totals were high anyway. I believe the QPF was well under 2" at IAD with 32" accumulation. It was 3.45" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I was kind of going to do Euro quasi-pbp, but with getting sql'ed not sure it is worth it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 CMC precip meteogram R9_RN_S9_SN_G9_PE_Z9_FR_METE_0000_Washington.png For those not metrically inclined... ~32mm of snow. That is 1.25" QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 We do historical storms and car toppers pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 comparing 0Z Euro numbers for Charlotte with actual numbers today and Euro's forecast for latter today, it is coming in warmer I have no idea if that means anything down the road for anyone other than they may get screwed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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