IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The Euro didn't come west today. It looks about what it was at 0z. It's stronger so there is even more of a front end snow thump but then some warming/dryslotting near the city/coast. I'll gladly take the 10" and then dryslot it shows. The point is that it's overdoing it. If the NAM isn't introducing dryslotting issues because of an overamped solution, then it's pretty obvious that the future runs of the EURO will scale it back a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I wouldn't be shocked at all if WSW's go up late tomorrow afternoon area-wide. Sent from my iPhone Likely to go up even sooner. Tomorrow morning I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Below are select 850 mb temperatures forecast by the 2/10 12z run of the ECMWF: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Look forward to you analysis on the ensembles. The 12Z ensembles will be published here by someone else. I do not have access but some have to remember here that models are blended and not one model is used for an entire forecast. The 12Z euro OP is literally the most amped up/west track, and also like to add the ensembles have been more accurate of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Snow map from the Central PA thread: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BgIg1n3CQAAOOea.jpg:large 15" lollipop basically from Reading, PA east to Hunterdon County. 12" makes it almost to NYC. Western half of Long Island is 8"+, NYC is 10-12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 How long of a snow event for nj? Some people say 18 hrs. Anyone have any thought on this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 Below are select 850 mb temperatures forecast by the 2/10 12z run of the ECMWF: Don, Luckily for most areas by that second column, the heavy precipitation is over. The Euro is showing 1.1" liquid equivalent in NYC by the time 850mb temperatures go over 0 C. So it is not surprising to see some of the snow algorithms still showing 12" or more in those areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 How long of a snow event for nj? Some people say 18 hrs. Anyone have any thought on this Snow moves in around 06z Thursday and persists till around 12z Friday. Per the 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 For those wondering, the high resolution graphics are up on weatherbell now. This run definitely trended farther south and a bit colder throughout the column during the heaviest precipitation when compared to the 00z run. So while it is the farther west outlier, it has ticked a bit south and east. Another simple tick east or south will have major implications. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaf316 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Snow moves in around 06z Thursday and persists till around 12z Friday. Per the 12z Euro. does the precip flip back to snow on the backside for the city and east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Snow moves in around 06z Thursday and persists till around 12z Friday. Per the 12z Euro. perhaps an extended lull/break if we get dry slotted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 For those wondering, the high resolution graphics are up on weatherbell now. This run definitely trended farther south and a bit colder throughout the column during the heaviest precipitation when compared to the 00z run. So while it is the farther west outlier, it has ticked a bit south and east. Another simple tick east or south will have major implications. I agree , I think the entire suite is as good as it gets . at 0z knyc got 6 and 12z they get 12 , you guys get blitzed regardless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The Euro keeps any dry slotting over the ocean until the low is well northeast of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Don, Luckily for most areas by that second column, the heavy precipitation is over. The Euro is showing 1.1" liquid equivalent in NYC by the time 850mb temperatures go over 0 C. So it is not surprising to see some of the snow algorithms still showing 12" or more in those areas. Strongly agree. This looks like a real thumping before the warmth becomes too great to overcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 For those wondering, the high resolution graphics are up on weatherbell now. This run definitely trended farther south and a bit colder throughout the column during the heaviest precipitation when compared to the 00z run. So while it is the farther west outlier, it has ticked a bit south and east. Another simple tick east or south will have major implications. The Euro also seemed strongest overall with the southern stream energy and the phase, so perhaps its far west track makes sense. But I would bet there would end up a small shift east toward other guidance which is near the BM. But I like how far it expanded the snow shield, so a slight shift east wouldn't drop anyone off a cliff in the western suburbs and would rule out much or any mixing for I-95. Far eastern/southern sections will likely mix some regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 Can't post the entire graphic. But the Euro has 1.5" QPF through this frame and the city is sitting underneath a deformation band with very obvious dynamic cooling occurring. This is not appearing on the smoothed lower resolution graphics but these graphics pick it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Can't post the entire graphic. But the Euro has 1.5" QPF through this frame and the city is sitting underneath a deformation band with very obvious dynamic cooling occurring. This is not appearing on the smoothed lower resolution graphics but these graphics pick it up. euro.png wow, that's a pretty extraordinary graphic. plus look at the coastal front gradient Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CSheridan12 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Non-weenie Euro snow map Superstorm, where did you get that forecast map? I have the WSI modellab but it doesn't have nearly that high res/nice looking graphics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Can't post the entire graphic. But the Euro has 1.5" QPF through this frame and the city is sitting underneath a deformation band with very obvious dynamic cooling occurring. This is not appearing on the smoothed lower resolution graphics but these graphics pick it up. euro.png Amazing graphic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 For those wondering, the high resolution graphics are up on weatherbell now. This run definitely trended farther south and a bit colder throughout the column during the heaviest precipitation when compared to the 00z run. So while it is the farther west outlier, it has ticked a bit south and east. Another simple tick east or south will have major implications. And Dr. Maue just posted a link to the new ECMWF indies on his Twitter Some really impressive members from the 00z suite in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Can't post the entire graphic. But the Euro has 1.5" QPF through this frame and the city is sitting underneath a deformation band with very obvious dynamic cooling occurring. This is not appearing on the smoothed lower resolution graphics but these graphics pick it up. euro.png Subsidence right over my area. Perfect. I wish we weren't still 3 days away from this. We still have time for a lot of things to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Can't post the entire graphic. But the Euro has 1.5" QPF through this frame and the city is sitting underneath a deformation band with very obvious dynamic cooling occurring. This is not appearing on the smoothed lower resolution graphics but these graphics pick it up. euro.png Even shows LI not mixing either save for South Shore beaches maybe. And lets all keep in mind this is the furthest west and warmest model so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooklynSnow97 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 How are The winds Looking? I'm assuming they won't be an issue since we don't have a strong High to the north to tighten the Iso Lines Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 WU snowfall map looks more accurate, and takes account more mixing. 6-12" away from the immediate coastline. Total qpf 1.00-1.50" for much of the area: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Superstorm, where did you get that forecast map? I have the WSI modellab but it doesn't have nearly that high res/nice looking graphics Eskimo Joe posted it up in the CPA fringe thread. I don't have WSI access so I'd shoot him a PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christopher Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 What kind of winds we talking about for this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shanemacdonald23 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Hello guys new to this forum im from Nova Scotia hope yous down mind me coming in asking questions for my area , and i can join in discussions ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Honestly, Wed and Thursday could both be Critical Weather days with how large of an impact this system could have. 45 counties in GA declared an SoE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 He said there's still a chance this storm could miss, albeit very little chance, but it's still there Wouldn`t miss , it would go west Euro ensembles are too good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Yanks fan 27. When you say 1.5" qpf is that liquid to snow ration? An if so what are the ratio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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