Sn0waddict Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Sorry for the weenie post, i try to avoid these. But what's the wind threat look like with this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 GGEM would argue we get more snow from the WAA than the CCB as the 500mb low tracks NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I suspect we might see watches for the DC area by tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 12zGGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 GGEM closes off at H5 over SW Virginia hr 75. Crushing hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Even the GGEM which is about as good as it gets aloft shows the precip weakening on the NW side as the system approaches. That's not to downplay what it shows. Over 1" QPF most areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Exciting stuff here. Potentially an epic storm that would catapult this winter into epic (close to anyway) status. Considering I had been living abroad in a very warm climate for several years, this winter has more than made up for some lost time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAMSTORM22 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 This may be a dumb question...but taking the 12z suite verbatim is there a rain/snow line setting up anywhere? Or will this score for everyone dc-boston to the coast due to intense rates cooling boundary layers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 This would be a potential tree and roof crusher for some because it'll be a heavy water content snowfall similar to the past storm that broke several large branches and really weighed on many trees and lines. Many roofs still have heavy snow on them and a lot of trees have been weakened, and then add in some wind and there could be some problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Even the GGEM which is about as good as it gets aloft shows the precip weakening on the NW side as the system approaches. That's not to downplay what it shows. Over 1" QPF most areas.seems to be a trend today....still a big hit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Yea GGEM does the GFS thing where it weakens the precip in the CCB....Even on the EURO most of the heavy precip comes from the WAA out ahead of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 This would be a potential tree and roof crusher for some because it'll be a heavy water content snowfall similar to the past storm that broke several large branches and really weighed on many trees and lines. Many roofs still have heavy snow on them and a lot of trees have been weakened, and then add in some wind and there could be some problems. I'm a little worried about that here as well. Flat roofs have a lot of snow on them loaded with water, and this snow would likely be another pasty snow that would add a lot of weight. There could be 2 foot snow depths in many places if this reaches its full potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Yea GGEM does the GFS thing where it weakens the precip in the CCB....Even on the EURO most of the heavy precip comes from the WAA out ahead of the low. If there's a closed off 500mb low, there will be a heavy snow area associated with it. I think we only have to really worry about it if the 500mb opens back up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 One of the big issues that we don't need models to rely on is IMPACT. Im not sure about the NYC metro, but I know all of southwestern CT has 10-20" of concrete like snow on the ground with massive piles everywhere, as big as it gets a week after a snowstorm. There will be no where to put this snow.. If we get a MAJOR snowfall, there are going to be some major issues. Also a lot of trees still have snow on them. If we get a 15"+ paste job, power outages are also a concern.. Also all roofs have just as much snow on them.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I can't believe this.. I still have mountain s of snow..with ice on top..plus the two inches of last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The GGEM clearly shows the northern stream kicker coming and disrupting the system right as it reaches our latitude. The NAM closes back off south of Long Island, the GGEM does not. It's still a really big hit. I want to make that clear. Just not quite as big as it could have been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
viking70 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The models now have this storm coming in Thursday into Friday. Really messy evening commute on Thursday. IT still starts late Wednesday night but mostly early Thursday morning and then continues for almost 24 hours according to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 For posterity the GGEM shows the heaviest snow totals from just north of Philly across northern NJ and into Western New England. 12-15" in that area. A general area of 10"+ around that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 One of the big issues that we don't need models to rely on is IMPACT. Im not sure about the NYC metro, but I know all of southwestern CT has 10-20" of concrete like snow on the ground with massive piles everywhere, as big as it gets a week after a snowstorm. There will be no where to put this snow.. If we get a MAJOR snowfall, there are going to be some major issues. Also a lot of trees still have snow on them. If we get a 15"+ paste job, power outages are also a concern.. Also all roofs have just as much snow on them.. All of NYC's boroughs have 7"-13" of cement like snow pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Also some big timing differences. The GGEM has snow into NYC by midnight Wed night and we're still getting wrap around snows by late Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 All of NYC's boroughs have 7"-13" of cement like snow pack. We may have 2 feet of snow on the ground if it's a heavy hitter like the NAM/Euro/UK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The 850mb low on the Canadian passes right under Long Island. That's how you get big wrap around snows in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I can't believe this.. I still have mountain s of snow..with ice on top..plus the two inches of last night. Yup on top of the snowpack/icepack you and I both have right now something like this can become very dangerous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The GGEM clearly shows the northern stream kicker coming and disrupting the system right as it reaches our latitude. The NAM closes back off south of Long Island, the GGEM does not. It's still a really big hit. I want to make that clear. Just not quite as big as it could have been. This could be huge if the models can trend more favorably with it. It could easily take a major storm into something more historic, but at the same time that kicker is important and we don't want it to trend too weak or the storm could hug the coast more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Gefs .75 back to western nj and .5 to eastern pa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Just a repost since it's not every day that you see an HPC map made by Kocin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 One of the big issues that we don't need models to rely on is IMPACT. Im not sure about the NYC metro, but I know all of southwestern CT has 10-20" of concrete like snow on the ground with massive piles everywhere, as big as it gets a week after a snowstorm. There will be no where to put this snow.. If we get a MAJOR snowfall, there are going to be some major issues. Also a lot of trees still have snow on them. If we get a 15"+ paste job, power outages are also a concern.. Also all roofs have just as much snow on them.. 12-15" throughout up this way.. Believe it or not but alot of the snow is powdery here. Very thin layer of ice between the 2" of fluff that fell last night and the 12" beneath it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Mean has 992 over bm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Gefs .75 back to western nj and .5 to eastern pa Also very warm but i do know its a mean. Big storm signal to say the least, that Lp closes off were going to see a VERY POWERFUL storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Mean has 992 over bmimpressive for the mean! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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