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February 13-14 Potential Snowstorm II


earthlight

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You will have a 993 sitting off the jersey coast, the 95 area will be crushed under the Ccb. Stop worrying about qpf

Also have to throw LI in there as well as it looks like the deepening low will preven any mixing issues towards NYC S&E. great run and translated its 12-18"+ for PHL-NYC-LI and SNE

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Also have to throw LI in there as well as it looks like the deepening low will preven any mixing issues towards NYC S&E. great run and translated its 12-18"+ for PHL-NYC-LI and SNE

Every run this morning is east of Norfolk , and that`s what we need 

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I look at the 500mb at 84-93 hours and expect to see a ton of moisture over Philly-NYC, but its really light (though there were some improvements in terms of VVs compared to 6z)

 

It's still having trouble with the westerly component to the mid level winds thanks to the fast northern stream and kicker entering the picture to the northwest. But it seems to be resolving that slowly over the course of the last few runs. We will see.

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Apologies for the logistical question, but when would the NWS put out their first WSW/projected totals for this event assuming trends hold?  Wife has a business meeting scheduled in NYC on Thursday (we live in CA), but she's planning to fly back here on Thursday night before we leave for a tropical vacation on Friday morning.  I'll need some official "fodder" for her to show why the meeting should be canceled or teleconferenced, and model runs aren't going to cut it even though it's becoming clearer that HECS is afoot.

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Apologies for the logistical question, but when would the NWS put out their first WSW/projected totals for this event assuming trends hold?  Wife has a business meeting scheduled in NYC on Thursday (we live in CA), but she's planning to fly back here on Thursday night before we leave for a tropical vacation on Friday morning.  I'll need some official "fodder" for her to show why the meeting should be canceled or teleconferenced, and model runs aren't going to cut it even though it's becoming clearer that HECS is afoot.

probably sometime tomorrow likely with the 4pm package

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Apologies for the logistical question, but when would the NWS put out their first WSW/projected totals for this event assuming trends hold?  Wife has a business meeting scheduled in NYC on Thursday (we live in CA), but she's planning to fly back here on Thursday night before we leave for a tropical vacation on Friday morning.  I'll need some official "fodder" for her to show why the meeting should be canceled or teleconferenced, and model runs aren't going to cut it even though it's becoming clearer that HECS is afoot.

 

The NWS in Mount Holly has already put out projected totals for New Jersey, but it is still early. I think tomorrow you'll start to hear more from that department and start to see Winter Storm Watches/etc.

 

Although confidence is naturally low at this range, I would really lean towards a teleconference rather than trying to get into this area on Thursday.

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Apologies for the logistical question, but when would the NWS put out their first WSW/projected totals for this event assuming trends hold?  Wife has a business meeting scheduled in NYC on Thursday (we live in CA), but she's planning to fly back here on Thursday night before we leave for a tropical vacation on Friday morning.  I'll need some official "fodder" for her to show why the meeting should be canceled or teleconferenced, and model runs aren't going to cut it even though it's becoming clearer that HECS is afoot.

They'd probably wait until tomorrow afternoon. It is possible if all holds serve at 0z and 6z that we'd see a watch go up as early as tomorrow morning.

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I don't really love any of the analogs showing up because none of them really match up well at H5.

 

2/11/83 came up as the #10 analog over the south at hr 72 last night.

 

2/19/79 came in as #13.

 

So some big hits finally starting to show up.

 

1/27/11 is a very good analogue (which explains the 12Z NAM's output). 

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I don't really love any of the analogs showing up because none of them really match up well at H5.

 

2/11/83 came up as the #10 analog over the south at hr 72 last night.

 

2/19/79 came in as #13.

 

So some big hits finally starting to show up.

 

check out 1/22/87 and 2/5/01

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Who is "we" ?? lol..

Some of us want to see this baby hug the coast and make landfall on LI.

Speak for yourself lol. It's getting harder not to have to loosen the pants with this one. I have worked every MECS/HECS for the last 12 years. Would be nice to be home for a bomb.

Going off discussions and a little gut feeling this stays off the coast far enough with enough cold air that mixing will not be an issue. Just waiting to see what impact the kicker has on it as we get closer.

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The NWS discussion is all over it.  I doubt your wife will fly anywhere on Thursday if things proceed as discussed here.

 

 

The NWS in Mount Holly has already put out projected totals for New Jersey, but it is still early. I think tomorrow you'll start to hear more from that department and start to see Winter Storm Watches/etc.

 

Although confidence is naturally low at this range, I would really lean towards a teleconference rather than trying to get into this area on Thursday.

 

Thanks - she's slated to fly in Wednesday (which will likely beat the storm) for the Thursday meeting.  Problem will be getting stuck in NYC for days and missing our vacation.

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The NWS discussion is all over it.  I doubt your wife will fly anywhere on Thursday if things proceed as discussed here.

 

Keep in mind too ATL, DFW are both seeing winter precip the next day or two, that means Delta, AA, and Southwest are all gonna be hurting, there may be flights cancelled between two cities not even impacted by the weather.

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Why the over analyzing GFS surface features? It is not done trending, the set-up is there, once it's done trending and we have a general consensus on strength, track, timing, mid level features. Then we will be able to see dry-slots, nw edge, precip type amounts, rates, etc.  Let's enjoy now what MAY happen 

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I hate my location for most true miller A's. This is one of those storms that will shaft a lot of people.

Dude , this is not missing you in the least  . You miss Northern branch features on arctic waves . This  southern branch feature will scorch everyone .  Ignore the GFS .  Its the  typical bias . look at the UKMET  500MB  , no one gona miss 

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