96blizz Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 That's the 6th straight move West for the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 You will have a 993 sitting off the jersey coast, the 95 area will be crushed under the Ccb. Stop worrying about qpf Also have to throw LI in there as well as it looks like the deepening low will preven any mixing issues towards NYC S&E. great run and translated its 12-18"+ for PHL-NYC-LI and SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 This looks potent, anyone have it past 72 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Also have to throw LI in there as well as it looks like the deepening low will preven any mixing issues towards NYC S&E. great run and translated its 12-18"+ for PHL-NYC-LI and SNE When y'all actually see the Ukie, you'll realize that something special is happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 This looks potent, anyone have it past 72 hours? wow.gif Yes. As mentioned above. 984 on the BM. HECS for everyone DC-Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Also have to throw LI in there as well as it looks like the deepening low will preven any mixing issues towards NYC S&E. great run and translated its 12-18"+ for PHL-NYC-LI and SNE Every run this morning is east of Norfolk , and that`s what we need Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 I look at the 500mb at 84-93 hours and expect to see a ton of moisture over Philly-NYC, but its really light (though there were some improvements in terms of VVs compared to 6z) It's still having trouble with the westerly component to the mid level winds thanks to the fast northern stream and kicker entering the picture to the northwest. But it seems to be resolving that slowly over the course of the last few runs. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Ukie has a 984 low right on the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 If the Euro hugs the coast again, people are gonna lose their minds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueheronNC Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Apologies for the logistical question, but when would the NWS put out their first WSW/projected totals for this event assuming trends hold? Wife has a business meeting scheduled in NYC on Thursday (we live in CA), but she's planning to fly back here on Thursday night before we leave for a tropical vacation on Friday morning. I'll need some official "fodder" for her to show why the meeting should be canceled or teleconferenced, and model runs aren't going to cut it even though it's becoming clearer that HECS is afoot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I don't really love any of the analogs showing up because none of them really match up well at H5. 2/11/83 came up as the #10 analog over the south at hr 72 last night. 2/19/79 came in as #13. So some big hits finally starting to show up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 precip shield wider than other models? It calculates 1.5"+ QPF with a tightly wound closed off LP @H5 and the end result is a 12-24"+ storm from DC-BOSTON. More importantly the BM track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveTinNY Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The NWS discussion is all over it. I doubt your wife will fly anywhere on Thursday if things proceed as discussed here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Apologies for the logistical question, but when would the NWS put out their first WSW/projected totals for this event assuming trends hold? Wife has a business meeting scheduled in NYC on Thursday (we live in CA), but she's planning to fly back here on Thursday night before we leave for a tropical vacation on Friday morning. I'll need some official "fodder" for her to show why the meeting should be canceled or teleconferenced, and model runs aren't going to cut it even though it's becoming clearer that HECS is afoot. probably sometime tomorrow likely with the 4pm package Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 Apologies for the logistical question, but when would the NWS put out their first WSW/projected totals for this event assuming trends hold? Wife has a business meeting scheduled in NYC on Thursday (we live in CA), but she's planning to fly back here on Thursday night before we leave for a tropical vacation on Friday morning. I'll need some official "fodder" for her to show why the meeting should be canceled or teleconferenced, and model runs aren't going to cut it even though it's becoming clearer that HECS is afoot. The NWS in Mount Holly has already put out projected totals for New Jersey, but it is still early. I think tomorrow you'll start to hear more from that department and start to see Winter Storm Watches/etc. Although confidence is naturally low at this range, I would really lean towards a teleconference rather than trying to get into this area on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Apologies for the logistical question, but when would the NWS put out their first WSW/projected totals for this event assuming trends hold? Wife has a business meeting scheduled in NYC on Thursday (we live in CA), but she's planning to fly back here on Thursday night before we leave for a tropical vacation on Friday morning. I'll need some official "fodder" for her to show why the meeting should be canceled or teleconferenced, and model runs aren't going to cut it even though it's becoming clearer that HECS is afoot. They'd probably wait until tomorrow afternoon. It is possible if all holds serve at 0z and 6z that we'd see a watch go up as early as tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I don't really love any of the analogs showing up because none of them really match up well at H5. 2/11/83 came up as the #10 analog over the south at hr 72 last night. 2/19/79 came in as #13. So some big hits finally starting to show up. 1/27/11 is a very good analogue (which explains the 12Z NAM's output). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I don't really love any of the analogs showing up because none of them really match up well at H5. 2/11/83 came up as the #10 analog over the south at hr 72 last night. 2/19/79 came in as #13. So some big hits finally starting to show up. check out 1/22/87 and 2/5/01 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Who is "we" ?? lol.. Some of us want to see this baby hug the coast and make landfall on LI. Speak for yourself lol. It's getting harder not to have to loosen the pants with this one. I have worked every MECS/HECS for the last 12 years. Would be nice to be home for a bomb. Going off discussions and a little gut feeling this stays off the coast far enough with enough cold air that mixing will not be an issue. Just waiting to see what impact the kicker has on it as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The GFS really amplifies that kicker coming in behind the storm. It has no moisture leftover to work with however. Too bad this energy couldn't have found a way to phase in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueheronNC Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The NWS discussion is all over it. I doubt your wife will fly anywhere on Thursday if things proceed as discussed here. The NWS in Mount Holly has already put out projected totals for New Jersey, but it is still early. I think tomorrow you'll start to hear more from that department and start to see Winter Storm Watches/etc. Although confidence is naturally low at this range, I would really lean towards a teleconference rather than trying to get into this area on Thursday. Thanks - she's slated to fly in Wednesday (which will likely beat the storm) for the Thursday meeting. Problem will be getting stuck in NYC for days and missing our vacation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The NWS discussion is all over it. I doubt your wife will fly anywhere on Thursday if things proceed as discussed here. Keep in mind too ATL, DFW are both seeing winter precip the next day or two, that means Delta, AA, and Southwest are all gonna be hurting, there may be flights cancelled between two cities not even impacted by the weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 check out 1/22/87 and 2/5/01 The analogs I mentioned are the ones that CIPS is spitting out. They will update soon based on the 12z data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Does anyone actually have precip maps for the ukmet beyond 72 hours? The GFS was deep too but it didn't spit that much moisture back, just curious to see how the ukmet handled the CCB snows compared to the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The 12z GFS shows dry slot/subsidence at the 500mb level: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The GFS really amplifies that kicker coming in behind the storm. It has no moisture leftover to work with however. Too bad this energy couldn't have found a way to phase in. The kicker could leave more than a few people with ropes around their necks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The kicker could leave more than a few people with ropes around their necks. I hate my location for most true miller A's. This is one of those storms that will shaft a lot of people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Why the over analyzing GFS surface features? It is not done trending, the set-up is there, once it's done trending and we have a general consensus on strength, track, timing, mid level features. Then we will be able to see dry-slots, nw edge, precip type amounts, rates, etc. Let's enjoy now what MAY happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I hate my location for most true miller A's. This is one of those storms that will shaft a lot of people. Dude , this is not missing you in the least . You miss Northern branch features on arctic waves . This southern branch feature will scorch everyone . Ignore the GFS . Its the typical bias . look at the UKMET 500MB , no one gona miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I hate my location for most true miller A's. This is one of those storms that will shaft a lot of people.the ull should help many when it swings thru though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.