February 13-14 Potential Snowstorm II

[Zelocita Weather]

Upton going for 6-8" nj west of the parkway, 4-6" NYC and immediate environs, 2-4" central/eastern Long Island per map...

[PB GFI]

Upton going for 6-8" nj west of the parkway, 4-6" NYC and immediate environs, 2-4" central/eastern Long Island per map...

?  Think they will be chasing those amounts tonite  

[bluewave]

?  Think they will be chasing those amounts tonite  

 

You have to wonder if the euro is underestimating the potential for the 850 freeze line to collapse

into the closed low right over us on Thursday when the surface low gets down to 983 just east

of ACY. Closed lows always seem to overperform for us around here.

[PB GFI]

You have to wonder if the euro is underestimating the potential for the 850 freeze line to collapse

into the closed low right over us on Thursday when the surface low gets down to 983 just east

of ACY. Closed lows always seem to overperform for us around here.

If the UKMET  didn't come in so warm ( plus 8 onto LI ) I would say this could be Jan 2011 where the center pulls the colder air in .

The GFS and NAM , get the 0 line to NYC but than change everyone back over .

 

That's our whole forecast are we 983 at AC or 75 miles East . Its the difference of 3 to 6 or 12 plus . Maybe at 12z we can button this whole thing up .

[earthlight]

You have to wonder if the euro is underestimating the potential for the 850 freeze line to collapse

into the closed low right over us on Thursday when the surface low gets down to 983 just east

of ACY. Closed lows always seem to overperform for us around here.

The models all starting to agree on a closed low with a favorable track is really exciting. Overnight we saw the NAM and GFS come northwest and wetter while the Euro and Euro Ens came southeast and colder. The first signs of a convergence towards a track in the middle which is very favorable for us.

[PB GFI]

When this is done , this will be ranked very high on the NESIS  scale , the scope of this storm is massive

[REDMK6GLI]

When this is done , this will be ranked very high on the NESIS scale , the scope of this storm is massive

After seeing the EURO last night ticked noticably colder for coastal sections and still dump tons of QPF. I feel confident in saying NYC- S&E Stand a good shot now at 12"+ paul. Also your right a NESIS 4 wouldnt shock as this storm is going to produce a massive swath of snow from the south up the coast to maine

[weatherpruf]

When this is done , this will be ranked very high on the NESIS  scale , the scope of this storm is massive

PB I don't know what to think, often what is seen here is at odds with the local forecasters. Saw one this morning on CBS who thought it was trending warmer and out and out said that's good, more rain. rain on top of the icy mess we have is not good, especially if it freezes up again. So I don't know what he meant. Guess the public wants to hear rain. if this storm delivers the goods ( and I'm a believe it when I see it type because I do not have patience to understand all the tech talk here ) then this will go down as one of the truly epic winters, alongside 94 ( for me the gold standard ) even if we got it w/o a single massive 96-type storm. I love the analysis here from everyone; won't be able to follow at work because now you have to register from public computers.

[Weathergun]

Models develop a trowal ahead of the WAA Wednesday night and Thursday AM. Then show CCB development on Thursday afternoon and evening We can see two periods of heavy snow. With some mixing/dryslotting issues in between.

[Heisy]

You have to love the look of the 6z 48hr RGEM...Over and over the RGEM has been amazing this winter so as we get more into its range it will be my personal goto model for overall track and precip types

[StatenWx]

You have to love the look of the 6z 48hr RGEM...Over and over the RGEM has been amazing this winter so as we get more into its range it will be my personal goto model for overall track and precip types

What I have noticed though is at the end of its range it tends to be a little too warm for most storms a.

[PB GFI]

PB I don't know what to think, often what is seen here is at odds with the local forecasters. Saw one this morning on CBS who thought it was trending warmer and out and out said that's good, more rain. rain on top of the icy mess we have is not good, especially if it freezes up again. So I don't know what he meant. Guess the public wants to hear rain. if this storm delivers the goods ( and I'm a believe it when I see it type because I do not have patience to understand all the tech talk here ) then this will go down as one of the truly epic winters, alongside 94 ( for me the gold standard ) even if we got it w/o a single massive 96-type storm. I love the analysis here from everyone; won't be able to follow at work because now you have to register from public computers.

I`m  not sure how much rain NYC sees the GGEM  is an all out snowstorm , the Euro still puts down a FOOT of snow of snow from CNJ thru NYC . The GFS and NAM support snow .  I cant comment on what they`re thoughts are , maybe they see it differently .

If there`s rain with this , it will be sandwiched between snow for a lot of Coastal areas

[earthlight]

A HIGH SOCIETAL IMPACT WINTER STORM IS IMMINENT ACROSS THE SRN

TIER OF THE COUNTRY AND VERY LIKELY TO PROCEED UP THE EAST COAST

ON WED AND THURS... BASICALLY EXTENDING FROM TX/LA TO NEW ENGLAND.

A VERY COMPLEX UPPER PATTERN WITH SPLIT FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE ERN

TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY... WHILE A MAMMOTH DOME OF SURFACE

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CONSUMES THE ENTIRE REGION AND ESPECIALLY

EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. AN IMPRESSIVE AND DYNAMIC IMPULSE OVER

THE MID MS VALLEY WILL GLIDE ALONG THE NRN STREAM AND REACH THE

NORTHEAST COAST ON TUES. MEANWHILE... THE LAST SHORT WAVE THAT

IMPACTED THE CENTRAL CA COAST WILL ADVANCE DOWNSTREAM ALONG THE

ACTIVE SRN BRANCH AND TRACK ACROSS TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

ALREADY MOISTURE IS OVERRUNNING THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT NEAR

THE GULF COAST FOR A WELL-ESTABLISHED PRECIP SHIELD ACROSS THE

SOUTH CONTAINING SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN. THIS SHIELD OF MOISTURE

WILL ADVECT DOWNSTREAM DURING THE DAY INTO THE SOUTHEAST OR WITH

THE PACE OF THE NRN STREAM IMPULSE. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY 1

TO 3 OR 4 INCHES OF SNOW FROM NRN AL/GA THROUGH UPSTATE SC INTO

SERN/ERN NC WITH POSSIBLE .10 TO .50 INCH OF ICING THREAT FROM

NRN/CENTRAL GA THROUGH MUCH OF SC INTO SERN NC AND THE BEGINNING

OF A PARALYZING ICE STORM. AS THE SRN STREAM FEATURE CROSSES TX TO

THE LWR MS VALLEY... SOME SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR AS PAC

DYNAMICS NEAR THE NW WILL DIG DOWN THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES

INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THUS THE GENERALLY SUPPRESSED PRECIP

SHIELD ACROSS TX/LA WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND AND LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTH

AND TOWARD THE SRN APPALACHIANS... WHILE INDUCING A WAVE OF LOW

PRESSURE NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. THIS WOULD RESULT IN SOME

LIGHT AND MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ACROSS NORTH TX BUT A

DECENT AMOUNT OF ICING FROM THE HILL COUNTRY OF TX THROUGH ERN

TX/MUCH OF LA TO NORTH CENTRAL MS. WPC STAYED VERY CLOSE TO A

COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z GFS... ECMWF AND 21Z/10 SREF MEAN.

THE DIGGING UPSTREAM DYNAMICS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RAPIDLY

CATCH UP WITH THE SRN STREAM DYNAMICS TO POTENTIALLY PHASE OVER

THE SERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL ALLOW A SIGNIFICANT

INCREASE IN MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND

ATLANTIC TO INTERACT WITH A DEVELOPING

COASTAL LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST... WHILE ONE OF THE MORE

IMPRESSIVE CONFLUENT ZONES ALOFT KEEPS THE ARCTIC AREA OF HIGH

PRESSURE ENTRENCHED OVER THE EAST. A TRUE BAROCLINIC LEAF PRECIP

SHIELD WILL EVOLVE FEATURING MAJOR ICING FROM ATL TOWARD CAE THEN

SHIFTING NORTH TOWARD RDU AND A VERY HEALTHY DEFORMATION ZONE OF

BANDING SNOWFALL FROM NRN GA/SWRN NC/NWRN SC NEWRD TO SWRN/CENTRAL

VA BEFORE REACHING THE DC/BALT/PHIL METRO AREAS. THE ICE

ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN MIND-BOGGLING IF NOT HISTORICAL WITH

ADDITIONAL .50 TO 1 INCH AXIS FROM ATL/AHN/AGS TO CAE TO RDU AND 8

TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW FROM AVL/GSP TO ROA/LYH/CHO AND JUST SOUTH OF

IAD/DCA WITH A POSSIBLE FOOT NEAR SWRN NC/NWRN SC. WPC CONTINUED

THE COMPROMISE OF THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET WITH SUPPORT FROM THE SREF

MEAN FOR THE BEGINNING OF A CLASSIC EAST COAST WINTER STORM.

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

Upton still has not issued any official watches or even an official statement on this storm yet as of 7 a.m. They are probably waiting for the 12Z guidance to determine which areas will get watches and which areas will get advisories since this will NOT be a major snow/ice event i.e. over 10 inches for part of the area - still to be determined...........

http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/

Guessing everyone is under wsw except for eastern Suffolk. The overnight guidance was great!!

[SleetStormNJ]

Impressive discussion there John. Thanks for posting for the rest of us. Historic storm for down south it looks like and potentially overall for all of us.

[REDMK6GLI]

Guessing everyone is under wsw except for eastern Suffolk. The overnight guidance was great!!

biggest thing was the EURO and it keeps the coastal sections mixing/changeover to a minimum with a track off AC save for E. LI

[jbenedet]

I`m  not sure how much rain NYC sees the GGEM  is an all out snowstorm , the Euro still puts down a FOOT of snow of snow from CNJ thru NYC . The GFS and NAM support snow .  I cant comment on what they`re thoughts are , maybe they see it differently .

If there`s rain with this , it will be sandwiched between snow for a lot of Coastal areas

I agree. Start time (very early Thurs., well before sunrise) is also favorable for a good front-end thump that could easily exceed WSW criteria. The only thing I can see giving them real pause  at this point is the GFS and Nam with more favorable "all-snow" tracks still show p-type issues throughout, particularly the GFS. 

 

Personally I still like a blend of the GFS/Euro with regards to both track and intensity. I would expect this to be a mostly snow event along the coast...

[PB GFI]

After seeing the EURO last night ticked noticably colder for coastal sections and still dump tons of QPF. I feel confident in saying NYC- S&E Stand a good shot now at 12"+ paul. Also your right a NESIS 4 wouldnt shock as this storm is going to produce a massive swath of snow from the south up the coast to maine

After seeing the EURO last night ticked noticably colder for coastal sections and still dump tons of QPF. I feel confident in saying NYC- S&E Stand a good shot now at 12"+ paul. Also your right a NESIS 4 wouldnt shock as this storm is going to produce a massive swath of snow from the south up the coast to maine

The 12 inch amounts are possible

The Euro and GGEM say so

[Ralph Wiggum]

I would start leaning on some of the hi res models at this point. Almost time to nix the Euro. ..nam better at this range. Also the sref will be a handy tool as we close in on the event.

[REDMK6GLI]

The 12 inch amounts are possible

The Euro and GGEM say so

if we can get into that CCB here along the coast and into NYC we'll be golden. looks like we may according to some of the 0z model suite

[REDMK6GLI]

I would start leaning on some of the hi res models at this point. Almost time to nix the Euro. ..nam better at this range. Also the sref will be a handy tool as we close in on the event.

yea I totally agree by 12z today it would be time break them out and start analyzing them

[REDMK6GLI]

the new 0z CMC looks awesome with the track but is too warm with the strength of the LP and the track, regardless it again shows a boatload of QPF for our area.

[earthlight]

This is the last time i am going to ask you take the TV met discussion to the appropriate thread. People are going to be suspended soon.

Annoys me so much. Just scroll back to the forum and look at the appropriate thread. Is it really that hard? You are all making my job so much more difficult.

[earthlight]

the new 0z CMC looks awesome with the track but is too warm with the strength of the LP and the track, regardless it again shows a boatload of QPF for our area.

The 00z Canadian had a ton of snow for the entire area.

[REDMK6GLI]

This is the last time i am going to ask you take the TV met discussion to the appropriate thread. People are going to be suspended soon.

Annoys me so much. Just scroll back to the forum and look at the appropriate thread. Is it really that hard? You are all making my job so much more difficult.

guilty I did make a reference and apologize john. btw how much better were the temp profiles for the coast with the 0z ECMWF compared to the 12z ECMWF?

[REDMK6GLI]

The 00z Canadian had a ton of snow for the entire area.

could you possibly PM me some links to the other globals please? my SV subscription doesn't really give me the whole gambit of models from the globals as you use/reference here. greatly appreciated if you could do that for me john

[earthlight]

could you possibly PM me some links to the other globals please? my SV subscription doesn't really give me the whole gambit of models from the globals as you use/reference here. greatly appreciated if you could do that for me john

 

You can get the Canadian, UK, GFS, etc here ( a little slower to update)

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?mod=gemglb&map=na&run=00〈=en

 

Or just use Ewall which has every model known to man

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewall.html

[REDMK6GLI]

You can get the Canadian, UK, GFS, etc here ( a little slower to update)

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?mod=gemglb&map=na&run=00〈=en

 

Or just use Ewall which has every model known to man

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewall.html

thanks again john.

[jm1220]

the new 0z CMC looks awesome with the track but is too warm with the strength of the LP and the track, regardless it again shows a boatload of QPF for our area.

The Canadian last night had no rain or almost no rain for NYC and the snow map showed 25-30mm+ liquid on Long Island as snow. The warm air line gets close for a time but by then most of the precip is over.

[jm1220]

The models last night seeming to combine into a consensus track SE of the area is a great sign, but we still need to wait for the effect the kicker has. That hasn't been resolved fully yet and can still shift things around. I doubt at this stage there are major changes but could still be notable particularly in far NW areas where some models have them near the edge of heavy snow. By 0z tonight we should have a good idea who gets what. As of now I'd say everyone gets at least 6-12" with maybe 15" along and west of I-287. Even the wrapped up models deliver a huge punch of snow for everyone.