wolfie09 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Split hwo for monmouth at the moment NJZ009-010-012-013-015-112145-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-436 PM EST MON FEB 10 2014THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERNNEW JERSEY AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY..DAY ONE...TONIGHT.HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.A STRONG COASTAL STORM IS FORECAST TO AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL NEWJERSEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SNOW IS POSSIBLE ISPOSSIBLE. THERE MAY BE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR A TIMETHURSDAY IF THE STORM TRACKS WITHIN 50 MILES OF THE COAST Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 It's not the kicker. This rests on does this neg tilt at Hatteras. If it does its over the delmarva and we r cooked Forget the models for a second. If there's no high to hold it it will just come north. If tomrrw at 12z the data shows its a Pos tilted trough then it will bomb out east of Norfolk and b 50 miles east of AC then it's game on. But too many members r west. The control is up over nyc I know the others models don't show this. But The euro skill score In the southern branch is the best. Just wait to see the euro at 0z and see if it's a tick east. U really don't Wana b neg inside obx I agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Paul kocin s track would really be a great track for those just west of I 95 and really good for everyone else . He's just inside obx then 996 just east and i mean just east of deleware bay and then I'm sure it's to the BM. Really looks like the jan 2011 track and would love to overlay the track of 93. In track only from out of the panhandle through 40 N and see how similar they look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Do we still get a front end thump in the worst solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooklynSnow97 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GFS is east and ensembles are even more east. Euro is west and its ensembles are even more west. Total Opposites with 72 hours of the storm! Just Crazy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNAO Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GFS is east and ensembles are even more east. Euro is west and its ensembles are even more west. Total Opposites with 72 hours of the storm! Just Crazy! One of them will take the KING status. This would be a HUGE victory for the GFS if it's right. It's against basically almost all models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42808-00z-models-2112014-potential-major-coastal-storm/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 One of them will take the KING status. This would be a HUGE victory for the GFS if it's right. It's against basically almost all models. One of them will take the KING status. This would be a HUGE victory for the GFS if it's right. It's against basically almost all models. Based on what I'm seeing here, it sounds to me like this storm just ain't for the I 95 corridor. If only one model is east as you say, then won't it most likely be wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Based on what I'm seeing here, it sounds to me like this storm just ain't for the I 95 corridor. If only one model is east as you say, then won't it most likely be wrong? The ukmet/ggem/nam are all big hits as is the euro... Just some of the euro ensemble members are a bit more inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The ukmet/ggem/nam are all big hits as is the euro... Just some of the euro ensemble members are a bit more inland The ukmet/ggem/nam are all big hits as is the euro... Just some of the euro ensemble members are a bit more inland Got it thanks. I'm going to sit back and observe the model thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I know back when DT was on the board, there was the EE rule (ETA/ECMWF)...which is now the NAM.....does anyone still go by this ? If so....it's quite a huge hit for all of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I know back when DT was on the board, there was the EE rule (ETA/ECMWF)...which is now the NAM.....does anyone still go by this ? If so....it's quite a huge hit for all of us EE rule? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 ETA/ECMWF E / E Make sense? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The NAM/Ukie/GGEM/GFS are all east of the Euro. GFS is the furthest east. Once again, I think a middle ground would be reasonable. NAM/UKie/GGEM is what im favoring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I just looked at the 500mb for 1/26/11 on E-wall and it looks very similar to the evolution of the southern stream and MSLP position, good analog for this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This is the analog for this storm listed in CIPS Analog Guidance http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1994/03-Mar-94.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This is the analog for this storm listed in CIPS Analog Guidance http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1994/03-Mar-94.html That was a sleet storm in central NJ. I remember it well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I just looked at the 500mb for 1/26/11 on E-wall and it looks very similar to the evolution of the southern stream and MSLP position, good analog for this storm? It's the #1 overall analog listed now. To me it appears a good match. What will be key is the interaction with the northern stream and eastward progression of the kicker. If that's slow and allows the storm to amplify like crazy, it will flood the coastal plain with warm air. If it's fairly quick and pushes the trough east, we may see an appearance much like that storm. I had 16" from that storm and possibly the most intense 4-5 hours of snow I've ever seen. I think there's room for the far west Euro and ensembles to be right if the kicker isn't much of a factor. Luckily, even those models give us a solid 6 hour period of heavy snow before mixing or a dryslot near the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Warning Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The NAM/Ukie/GGEM/GFS are all east of the Euro. GFS is the furthest east. Once again, I think a middle ground would be reasonable. Yea, but the GFS is in the process of moving west. Maybe this doesn't follow the Euro exactly, but seems to me that the track will be closer to the euro then GFS. NAM/UKie/GGEM is what im favoring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 That was a sleet storm in central NJ. I remember it well. I started the second part of that storm with thunder sleet, but quickly went to heavy snow. If we even have a half decent low track for the city and coast, dynamic cooling should hold back the warm air. We need it to be over the Outer Banks, then east of Ocean City, then a NE jog from there. That's where the kicker will be key and not let it tuck into the coast, hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The NAM/Ukie/GGEM/GFS are all east of the Euro. GFS is the furthest east. Once again, I think a middle ground would be reasonable. NAM/UKie/GGEM is what im favoring. That would be a nice solution for li. I'm not willing to make a final call until tomorrow at this time though. It could be anything from 3"-18". Though 6"-10" I think would be a could first call. I really hope more then normal we jackpot. The glaciers would cause some interesting stuff as the are basically stuck in place until they move Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I noticed Mt. Holly now indicates 6-8" with 8-10 to the N&W so even in the more westerly track are we still good for those kinds of amounts with the front end thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Warning Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This is the analog for this storm listed in CIPS Analog Guidance http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1994/03-Mar-94.html I remember that storm very well. I can still see jim cantore talking about that hideous dry slot that ran right up the Hudson River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 SST could influence track of the low and where it deepens. Gradient looks weaker than before with warmer water further north and west. Unfortunately I'm am inclined to think based on this that the low will track more northwest causing most people on LI and coastal areas to miss out on most of the snow. However, it does also mean the low has more moisture to throw to the interior areas for some ridiculous snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I started the second part of that storm with thunder sleet, but quickly went to heavy snow. If we even have a half decent low track for the city and coast, dynamic cooling should hold back the warm air. We need it to be over the Outer Banks, then east of Ocean City, then a NE jog from there. That's where the kicker will be key and not let it tuck into the coast, hopefully. I think he meant 3/3/94..was snow to sleet and massive interior snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 SST could influence track of the low and where it deepens. Gradient looks weaker than before with warmer water further north and west. Unfortunately I'm am inclined to think based on this that the low will track more northwest causing most people on LI and coastal areas to miss out on most of the snow. However, it does also mean the low has more moisture to throw to the interior areas for some ridiculous snow totals. Even the warmest solutions give the entire area at least significant 6"+ accumulation before mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 SST could influence track of the low and where it deepens. Gradient looks weaker than before with warmer water further north and west. Unfortunately I'm am inclined to think based on this that the low will track more northwest causing most people on LI and coastal areas to miss out on most of the snow. However, it does also mean the low has more moisture to throw to the interior areas for some ridiculous snow totals. Even the warmest solutions give the entire area at least significant 6"+ accumulation before mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 SST could influence track of the low and where it deepens. Gradient looks weaker than before with warmer water further north and west. Unfortunately I'm am inclined to think based on this that the low will track more northwest causing most people on LI and coastal areas to miss out on most of the snow. However, it does also mean the low has more moisture to throw to the interior areas for some ridiculous snow totals. Warmer then before in regards to when? I don't think near shore waters do anything but help coastal areas when compared to previous years. The Gulf Stream is always there and does not have much variability in water temps. I wouldn't focus on water temps in this situation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Hi, everyone. Long time lurker, first time post. Any word on the euro ensembles from last night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 What a terrific trend on the overnight forecast models. We are seeing what seems to be a convergence upon a solution which would bring a nearly ideal track with maximum winter weather impacts to the area. The NAM, GFS and Euro all have an initial surge of heavy precipitation as the coastal low surges northward up the coast -- and then a secondary CCB which develops and wraps around as the storm matures. The mid level warming is going to be something we pin down over the next few model cycles. Big 12z suite coming up. But man, you couldn't have asked for a better look overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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