Superstorm93 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Backside energy is definitely looking more robust through 54 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Better sampling? Yes because all the upper level disturbances are in areas where sampling is readily available and not sparse data regions. Also models starts to see the small nuances in the flow and be able to incorporate them into the storm accurately or close to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 I like to compare on and off hour runs of the GFS for trends. When comparing this to the last 00z run from last night, the changes are very significant. Slower with the southern stream, more favorable look aloft over Southeastern Canada, and much more robust with the northern stream energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Sprawling surface low over the southeast hour 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 The increased northern stream interaction over the Great Lakes may actually lead to this still being a tick to the east. We'll see. But the shortwave over the Southeast is trending towards a powerhouse system as we have seen on the Euro Ens and NAM. The GFS just gave way to that idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Hopefully we can start to lock this in later today (probably tonight on the 0z suite-and by "lock in" I mean that there will be a major storm impacting the area, not ptype, etc), as models should have the relevant data sampled well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 Surface low straight out of the Northeast Gulf to OBX. Thermal profiles and details of this run aside. My fingers are tingling.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Strengthening 500mb winds are forcing this straight up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 Cold conveyor belt on the GFS is really struggling. Seems to still be trending towards the deeper surface low and cyclone development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Hopefully we can start to lock this in later today (probably tonight on the 0z suite-and by "lock in" I mean that there will be a major storm impacting the area, not ptype, etc), as models should have the relevant data sampled well. I'd say we're locked in now. Exact track and ptype will take a while longer..though I think tucked in to the coast or BM are the 2 most likely scenarios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 250mb jet streak. This is coming up the coast: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveTinNY Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Is this possibly in the Miller A classification? Out of the Gulf/up the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 Best vorticity is about to shoot northeastward at 78 hours...nice trend towards the stronger solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Another step towards the Euro. Can't wait for that run. Huge implications! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 250mb jet streak. This is coming up the coast: A classic look at 84 hours. GFS is struggling with developing precipitation due to the kicker bearing down on the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 A classic look at 84 hours. GFS is struggling with developing precipitation due to the kicker bearing down on the pattern. Hopefully that's the GFS overdoing the northern stream like is often the case with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 If the precip was more intense on the western side this would have been a pretty big run. NW areas are well under an inch QPF. The city looks to be right around 0.50". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 How different is the kicker portrayed on the euro/ nam and gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Step in the right direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The GGEM/GFS continue to show the CCB precip dying out even as the low bombs. Could a met. explain why this is happening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 If this all comes to fruition we'll have one of the deepest snow packs out in my area since 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 A classic look at 84 hours. GFS is struggling with developing precipitation due to the kicker bearing down on the pattern.john would you say this is a trend or just a hiccup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I look at the 500mb at 84-93 hours and expect to see a ton of moisture over Philly-NYC, but its really light (though there were some improvements in terms of VVs compared to 6z) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 john would you say this is a trend or just a hiccup? The GFS has been trending towards a better phase and a more amplified solution for the better part of two days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Ukie is a big hit. And after seeing the gfs, something special is going down boys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The NAM, GFS (odd surface) and Ukie are all 12-18"+ hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The GGEM/GFS continue to show the CCB precip dying out even as the low bombs. Could a met. explain why this is happening? The kicker is impinging on it and not allowing the storm to mature. We need for the kicker to nudge the low NE, but also not overwhelm it and not enable rapid development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I look at the 500mb at 84-93 hours and expect to see a ton of moisture over Philly-NYC, but its really light (though there were some improvements in terms of VVs compared to 6z) You will have a 993 sitting off the jersey coast, the 95 area will be crushed under the Ccb. Stop worrying about qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The GGEM/GFS continue to show the CCB precip dying out even as the low bombs. Could a met. explain why this is happening? The northern stream energy is pressing down on the flow and acting as confluence. It comes down to how strong the kicker ends up versus how strong the energy is at H5 over the southeast. Timing is another factor. Personally I think this ends up as one mega band with not much to the west or northwest of wherever it sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 See through the GFS's biases. When Earthlight says his fingers tingle, then a Ukie runs follows with a 984 on the BM with 2 feet for everyone...it's time to HONK! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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