REDMK6GLI Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Be careful. U hav a retreating high. The correction is west. Ur in a bad spot to b all snow from this I would b cautious this is true as well. this is going to come down to the kicker being in the right spot to have the best influence on the track for the coast paul Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 this is true as well. this is going to come down to the kicker being in the right spot to have the best influence on the track for the coast paul It's not the kicker. This rests on does this neg tilt at Hatteras. If it does its over the delmarva and we r cooked Forget the models for a second. If there's no high to hold it it will just come north. If tomrrw at 12z the data shows its a Pos tilted trough then it will bomb out east of Norfolk and b 50 miles east of AC then it's game on. But too many members r west. The control is up over nyc I know the others models don't show this. But The euro skill score In the southern branch is the best. Just wait to see the euro at 0z and see if it's a tick east. U really don't Wana b neg inside obx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 It's not the kicker. This rests on does this neg tilt at Hatteras. If it does its over the delmarva and we r cooked Forget the models for a second. If there's no high to hold it it will just come north. If tomrrw at 12z the data shows its a Pos tilted trough then it will bomb out east of Norfolk and b 50 miles east of AC then it's game on. But too many members r west. The control is up over nyc I know the others models don't show this. But The euro skill score In the southern branch is the best. Just wait to see the euro at 0z and see if it's a tick east. U really don't Wana b neg inside obx If you had noticed on the past few cycles, there's a weak 1020-1023 mB HP next to the kicker. That will help bring in colder air if it's more pronounced in the next few cycles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 If you had noticed on the past few cycles, there's a weak 1020-1023 mB HP next to the kicker. That will help bring in colder air if it's more pronounced in the next few cycles. There are 2 things that I hav the on the wish list. Outside obx or Pos tilted inside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Channel 7 lee Goldberg says 3-6" then rain? Is that realistic? I'm hoping for a classic nor'easter 18" + a classic nor'easter is not 18 " thats closer to a HECS which NYC has only had 36 storms with snowfall greater then 12 inches since 1869 a classic would be closer to 6 - 12 inches - so you are asking quite a bit from a storm which alot of things can go wrong and probably will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 There are 2 things that I hav the on the wish list. Outside obx or Pos tilted inside Yea Paul, I think thats why the GFS was a little colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I will admit it is slightly concerning to see that many Euro ensemble members doing that considering their history of being at least reasonably accurate at this range. I will be a lot more concerned if we start to see other models tick west like that at 00z tonight. Agree 100% if we see the nam go west at 9pm we should be very concerned. Hate seeing the ens more amped then op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 When was the last time the Euro ensembles were out to lunch on an event inside of 96 hours? I'm thinking not in a very long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The 12z Suite was outstanding today , the NAM GFS UKMET GGEM all offer HEAVY snow area wide , only the GFS with its typical bias allows some its energy to escape east at hr 78 - that will come W . The Euro is 1.5 really area wide and 25 miles jog east isn`t goin to fringe anyone . This is a big system and will crush eveyone east of the APP all the way into NE . The Euro is at 12z is further east than at 0z and no one is fringed , at 0z KNYC recieves 6 inches of snow before a change to rain at 12z they get 12 . Look at the trend here and don`t take each model and agonize over it . Every reasonably accurate algorithm shows 10-16" for NYC and points west including all of NJ away from the shoreline. This is from the western-most solution. Gents - just curious on your take why, given the model output both of you essentially described for the 12Z suite, above, the NWS (OKX, especially) and the NYC media are being fairly conservative with snowfall amounts, primarily due to changeover concerns. Is it the Euro ensembles showing some western solutions or the Euro, itself, being interpreted differently from what most others have seen (or the drier SREFS as OKX mentioned)? I assume it can't be the influence of the 18Z NAM bomb (presumably discounted as being out of its range) or the 18Z GFS showing a fair amount less precip and being east - especially for the NWS, since these came out after the AFDs. I get that there are folks in the forum who are wearing snow goggles, but you guys were merely discussing model output and I don't think were spinning things in any way. Anyway, any commentary would be appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 When was the last time the Euro ensembles were out to lunch on an event inside of 96 hours? I'm thinking not in a very long time. The mean and the op always converge as the event draws closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 When was the last time the Euro ensembles were out to lunch on an event inside of 96 hours? I'm thinking not in a very long time. They were pretty far of with the January storms but that as becasue the northern stream issue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane11 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Gents - just curious on your take why, given the model output both of you essentially described for the 12Z suite, above, the NWS (OKX, especially) and the NYC media are being fairly conservative with snowfall amounts, primarily due to changeover concerns. Is it the Euro ensembles showing some western solutions or the Euro, itself, being interpreted differently from what most others have seen (or the drier SREFS as OKX mentioned)? I assume it can't be the influence of the 18Z NAM bomb (presumably discounted as being out of its range) or the 18Z GFS showing a fair amount less precip and being east - especially for the NWS, since these came out after the AFDs. I get that there are folks in the forum who are wearing snow goggles, but you guys were merely discussing model output and I don't think were spinning things in any way. Anyway, any commentary would be appreciated. I'll give you a very short answer: this storm's track is largely dependent on the 'kicker' energy and the models don't have the best sampling of this energy just yet; tomorrow 12z's will be telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Agree 100% if we see the nam go west at 9pm we should be very concerned. Hate seeing the ens more amped then opI don't think the Euro ens were more amped than the OP, at least not the mean. It's actually encouraging to see the GFS as far SE as it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 There are 2 things that I hav the on the wish list. Outside obx or Pos tilted inside Neg tilt without any blocking always makes me nervous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Neg tilt without any blocking always makes me nervous. Geopotential32at32500hPa_North32America_72.gif There's your key. The events which have been successful in similar setups to this all have had blocking. We're lucky to have the mid level ridge poking into Maine but I would like to see the kicker help us out a little too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Neg tilt without any blocking always makes me nervous. Geopotential32at32500hPa_North32America_72.gif As well it should. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Neg tilt without any blocking always makes me nervous. Geopotential32at32500hPa_North32America_72.gif the euro has been too dig happy in that region most of this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Neg tilt without any blocking always makes me nervous. Geopotential32at32500hPa_North32America_72.gif Certainly. We need the kicker to help us or we are at huge risk of torching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Gents - just curious on your take why, given the model output both of you essentially described for the 12Z suite, above, the NWS (OKX, especially) and the NYC media are being fairly conservative with snowfall amounts, primarily due to changeover concerns. Is it the Euro ensembles showing some western solutions or the Euro, itself, being interpreted differently from what most others have seen (or the drier SREFS as OKX mentioned)? I assume it can't be the influence of the 18Z NAM bomb (presumably discounted as being out of its range) or the 18Z GFS showing a fair amount less precip and being east - especially for the NWS, since these came out after the AFDs. I get that there are folks in the forum who are wearing snow goggles, but you guys were merely discussing model output and I don't think were spinning things in any way. Anyway, any commentary would be appreciated.I think it's more meteorology than modeling . Approaching low pressure into a coastal region with a retreating high pressure system 72 hours has to give them pause. There are many ensemble members that are west of the most western guidance. And it happens to be coming from the highest skill score group when coming our of the southern branch. I think u can always chase amounts as u get closer. The bigger scarlet letter is having to advise something down that was 3 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 They were pretty far of with the January storms but that as becasue the northern stream issue Nailed the last event for the interior.. Seeing the euro consistent on a coastal hugger as well as its ensembles should be concerning for u guys. I know the X factor seems to be this supposed kicker but at the end of the day this is still a southern stream storm which falls in the euros wheel house. Time will tell I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Neg tilt without any blocking always makes me nervous. Geopotential32at32500hPa_North32America_72.gif Bingo. I'm not saying we can't pull it off. We really can. Just b outside obx or Pos tilted inside and trust me no one getting fringed. The euro ensembles qpf is 1 to state college Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Whats more likely. South east tracks like gfs and its ensembles or the euros indv ensembles cutting slightly inland? Also i cant remember the last time the ukmet has been so gung ho for a storm for our area. I always remember the uk being eother low on qpf or taking far offshore tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Bingo. I'm not saying we can't pull it off. We really can. Just b outside obx or Pos tilted inside and trust me no one getting fringed. The euro ensembles qpf is 1 to state college Have you seen the GFS individual members? are there any as far west as the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Whats more likely. South east tracks like gfs and its ensembles or the euros indv ensembles cutting slightly inland? Also i cant remember the last time the ukmet has been so gung ho for a storm for our area. I always remember the uk being eother low on qpf or taking far offshore tracks. Both seem fairly unlikely since the consensus is in between Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=eastpac&sat=wg9∏=dlm6&zoom=&time=-1 http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Pac_tab.shtml Loop of 200mb jet with OPC 24 hr Pac side guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=eastpac&sat=wg9∏=dlm6&zoom=&time=-1 http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Pac_tab.shtml Loop of 200mb jet with OPC 24 hr Pac side guidance I guess my concern/question is whether said kicker will "be enough" to prevent warm air intrusion... more of a statement than a question, but thats what ill be looking at once the players take the field.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Have you seen the GFS individual members? are there any as far west as the euro? Haven't seen the gfs ensembles so can't speak to them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Have you seen the GFS individual members? are there any as far west as the euro? Maybe 1 or 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Maybe 1 or 2. Thanks buddy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Maybe 1 or 2. They also looked kinda on the warm side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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