RUMG11 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfpfd QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD459 PM EST MON FEB 10 2014 DAYS 2 AND 3......GULF COAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST...PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS WILL POSE THEPOTENTIAL FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE GULF COAST ANDSOUTHEAST ON DAY 2...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION INTHE MID ATLANTIC AND PART OF THE NORTHEAST ON DAY 3. WHILE THEREIS SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE 12Z MODEL SUITEMEMBERS...THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD.AT THIS POINT...THE 12Z ECMWF SEEMS ON ITS OWN WITH A CLOSED MIDLEVEL SYSTEM DEVELOPING EARLIER AND DEEPER THAN THENCONSENSUS...AND CONSEQUENTLY PRODUCES A BAND OF HEAVIERPRECIPITATION FURTHER WEST THAN THE CONSENSUS ON DAY 3. DUE TO ITSMORE WESTERLY SOLUTION...THERE WAS LITTLE INFLUENCE FROM THE 12ZECMWF ON THE QPF. INSTEAD...THE QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE12Z GFS/NAM/UKMET...THOUGH THE 12Z NAM QPF LOOKED OVERDONE.A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WITH ORIGINS OVER CA WILL TRACK FROMTHE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GULF COAST STATES ON DAY 2. AHEAD OFTHE SHORT WAVE...THE LOW TO MID LEVELS FLOW DRAWS HIGHERPRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (NEAR 1.25 INCHES) UP AND OVER A FRONTALBOUNDARY LYING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE MOISTURELIFTED IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 110 KNOT JET STREAK WILLRESULT IN A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN MS INTOSC/NC. IN THIS AXIS...AN AREA OF 1.50 TO 2.25 INCHES OF QPF WASPLACED OVER SOUTHEAST MS...SOUTH CENTRAL AL INTO NORTH CENTRAL GA.THESE AMOUNTS ARE SUPPORTED BY MEMBERS OF THE 12Z GEFS OUTPUT ASWELL. THESE QPF AMOUNTS ARE BELOW THE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCENUMBERS...SO NO EXCESSIVE AREAS WERE ISSUED.AS THE NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAMS PHASE...THE LONG WAVETROUGH ACQUIRES A NEGATIVE TILT...AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENSNEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THERE IS SOME SPREAD ON JUST WHERETHE BEST LIFT AND COMMA HEAD STRUCTURE WILL DEVELOP WITH THISSYSTEM...AND THE POSITION OF THE DRY SLOT WILL BE THE ONE OF THEKEYS TO THE FORECAST. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE DRYSLOT AFFECTS EASTERN NC INTO THE NORTHERN DELMARVA...BUT THISPOSITIONING IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. THE BEST DEFORMATION AHEAD OFTHE LONG WAVE SHOULD OCCUR CLOSE TO THE BEST LOW LEVEL THERMALPACKING...STRETCHING FROM SOUTHWEST VA INTO THE DELMARVA PENINSULAAND NJ. IN THIS AREA...0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES OF QPF WASFORECAST...WITH 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES OF QPF STRETCHED INTOSOUTHEAST AND EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD CONCERNING THETRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW (THE 12Z ECMWF IS FURTHEST WEST)...ANDJUST HOW MUCH QPF WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. INADDITION...THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE QPF IS NOT SET IN STONEEITHER...AS DRY AIR IN PLACE MAY TEND TO SHAVE OFF THE QPF ACROSSPORTIONS OF WV INTO CENTRAL PA AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY OF NY. ATLEAST SOME OF THE QPF IS EXPECTED TO TAKE THE FORM OF SNOW...SOPLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST SUITE OF WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS FORMORE INFORMATION. http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml#lows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueheronNC Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfpfd QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 459 PM EST MON FEB 10 2014 DAYS 2 AND 3... ...GULF COAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST... PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS WILL POSE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST ON DAY 2...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN THE MID ATLANTIC AND PART OF THE NORTHEAST ON DAY 3. WHILE THERE IS SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE 12Z MODEL SUITE MEMBERS...THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD. AT THIS POINT...THE 12Z ECMWF SEEMS ON ITS OWN WITH A CLOSED MID LEVEL SYSTEM DEVELOPING EARLIER AND DEEPER THAN THEN CONSENSUS...AND CONSEQUENTLY PRODUCES A BAND OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION FURTHER WEST THAN THE CONSENSUS ON DAY 3. DUE TO ITS MORE WESTERLY SOLUTION...THERE WAS LITTLE INFLUENCE FROM THE 12Z ECMWF ON THE QPF. INSTEAD...THE QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/NAM/UKMET...THOUGH THE 12Z NAM QPF LOOKED OVERDONE. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WITH ORIGINS OVER CA WILL TRACK FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GULF COAST STATES ON DAY 2. AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE...THE LOW TO MID LEVELS FLOW DRAWS HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (NEAR 1.25 INCHES) UP AND OVER A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LYING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE MOISTURE LIFTED IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 110 KNOT JET STREAK WILL RESULT IN A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN MS INTO SC/NC. IN THIS AXIS...AN AREA OF 1.50 TO 2.25 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED OVER SOUTHEAST MS...SOUTH CENTRAL AL INTO NORTH CENTRAL GA. THESE AMOUNTS ARE SUPPORTED BY MEMBERS OF THE 12Z GEFS OUTPUT AS WELL. THESE QPF AMOUNTS ARE BELOW THE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NUMBERS...SO NO EXCESSIVE AREAS WERE ISSUED. AS THE NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAMS PHASE...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ACQUIRES A NEGATIVE TILT...AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THERE IS SOME SPREAD ON JUST WHERE THE BEST LIFT AND COMMA HEAD STRUCTURE WILL DEVELOP WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THE POSITION OF THE DRY SLOT WILL BE THE ONE OF THE KEYS TO THE FORECAST. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE DRY SLOT AFFECTS EASTERN NC INTO THE NORTHERN DELMARVA...BUT THIS POSITIONING IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. THE BEST DEFORMATION AHEAD OF THE LONG WAVE SHOULD OCCUR CLOSE TO THE BEST LOW LEVEL THERMAL PACKING...STRETCHING FROM SOUTHWEST VA INTO THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AND NJ. IN THIS AREA...0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES OF QPF WAS FORECAST...WITH 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES OF QPF STRETCHED INTO SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD CONCERNING THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW (THE 12Z ECMWF IS FURTHEST WEST)...AND JUST HOW MUCH QPF WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. IN ADDITION...THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE QPF IS NOT SET IN STONE EITHER...AS DRY AIR IN PLACE MAY TEND TO SHAVE OFF THE QPF ACROSS PORTIONS OF WV INTO CENTRAL PA AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY OF NY. AT LEAST SOME OF THE QPF IS EXPECTED TO TAKE THE FORM OF SNOW...SO PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST SUITE OF WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS FOR MORE INFORMATION. http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml#lows 0.25-0.5" QPF for NYC? Wow, they are really going conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 It's rare to have the ECMWF and its ensemble mean west of every single SREF member (except possibly one). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 It's rare to have the ECMWF and its ensemble mean west of every single SREF member (except possibly one). What bothers me is the Control run , is so far west , it would wreck the interior and just flood the coast . It backed off at 0z , but came really west at 12z . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 0.25-0.5" QPF for NYC? Wow, they are really going conservative. GUIDANCE .... my friend guidance only! OPC says 998mb Cape Hatteras to 988mb on the BM http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Atl_tab.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 It's rare to have the ECMWF and its ensemble mean west of every single SREF member (except possibly one). Yea it is but its still far out there on the srefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 What bothers me is the Control run , is so far west , it would wreck the interior and just flood the coast . It backed off at 0z , but came really west at 12z . I think the Euros bias of holding the energy back affects the final solution, also the GFS bias is at play with a further east track, we are in a good spot, and the NAM is the "mean" of the two in terms of MSLP position, its just a dynamic bomb similar to 1/27/11 Oh, by the way the Euro is still 6+ for NYC, and I think longitude helps you in this case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monmouthcounty11 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Per the 18z GFS, NYC looks like about 10 mm of snow (.43 liquid) and then some minimal freezing rain. Philly is closer to 18 mm (.70) and stays all snow. Here's a snow map: And rain accum: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Yea it is but its still far out there on the srefs Yes they often have lots of outliers toward the end of their run. But usually there are at least a few on the opposite side of the cluster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 What bothers me is the Control run , is so far west , it would wreck the interior and just flood the coast . It backed off at 0z , but came really west at 12z . There is definitely the threat of warm air surging north with the mid-level low really wrapping up in the south. Jan 2000 comes to mind. But it's good to see that even the warm solutions have a big front end thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The 18z GEFS mean is wetter on the NW side but it's not overly so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 Can't make this up, the GFS Ensembles actually ticked east of 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 after taking into account the NAM is usually very amped at any range typically and the EURO and its entire suite at 12z was pretty much the western most outlier I have to say the EURO is telling me that it is struggling with the N/S shortwave in its placement and intensity. I would take a NAM/GFS/GGEM blend at this time as they'd be a OBX-BM track and be within most of the guidance tracks. this year the N/S has been under forecasted in strength as well so that im factoring in as well at this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Can't make this up, the GFS Ensembles actually ticked east of 12z. it is the 18z GFS john, and yes I know you mean this in the most humorous way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Long time lurker, from the Northern Morris County Area. A question in general, with the coming full moon and strength of the low as some models are indicating, will coastal flooding be a concern? I drove through the Ocean Beach area today and was wondering. Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 GFS individuals coming out now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Long time lurker, from the Northern Morris County Area. A question in general, with the coming full moon and strength of the low as some models are indicating, will coastal flooding be a concern? I drove through the Ocean Beach area today and was wondering. Cheers! coastal flooding will very well be a concern with the amount of water that will inundate the bays and secondary water ways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane11 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Can't make this up, the GFS Ensembles actually ticked east of 12z. Haha. True. The GFS will grasp at straws I think until that crucial piece hits the West Coast tomorrow and it gets better sampling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Kinda bummed there will probably be a rain/snow line to worry about. Got spoiled not having to worry about p-type issues so much this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Long time lurker, from the Northern Morris County Area. A question in general, with the coming full moon and strength of the low as some models are indicating, will coastal flooding be a concern? I drove through the Ocean Beach area today and was wondering. Cheers! 8 meters = 26ft seas I will let you digest that info!!! http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Atl_tab.shtml welcome in DM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 There are several Euro Ensembles which actually have the surface low tracking inland...west of Ocean City Maryland and then back northeast again near or just east of NYC. And by several I mean more than 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 There are several Euro Ensembles which actually have the surface low tracking inland...west of Ocean City Maryland and then back northeast again near or just east of NYC. And by several I mean more than 15. WOW! talk about the western most outlier john. think it was prudent that NWS isn't putting much weight into it compared to other guidance currently pretty much OBX-BM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 WOW! talk about the western most outlier john. think it was prudent that NWS isn't putting much weight into it compared to other guidance currently pretty much OBX-BM I will admit it is slightly concerning to see that many Euro ensemble members doing that considering their history of being at least reasonably accurate at this range. I will be a lot more concerned if we start to see other models tick west like that at 00z tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Its definitely worrisome to me....The NAM is pretty tucked in and from this range you usually see a good adjustment NW. This storm is happening in a pretty average snow pattern, a lot can go wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I will admit it is slightly concerning to see that many Euro ensemble members doing that considering their history of being at least reasonably accurate at this range. I will be a lot more concerned if we start to see other models tick west like that at 00z tonight. im actually not too concerned being that the GFS has had a better handle on the N/S than the EURO has this year and the track is going to be dependent on the N/S and the kicker proximity to the storm. I wouldn't be shocked to the EURO trend east while other globals and GFS stay steadfast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 There are several Euro Ensembles which actually have the surface low tracking inland...west of Ocean City Maryland and then back northeast again near or just east of NYC. And by several I mean more than 15. What are the Euro QPFs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 WOW! talk about the western most outlier john. think it was prudent that NWS isn't putting much weight into it compared to other guidance currently pretty much OBX-BM Be careful. U hav a retreating high. The correction is west. Ur in a bad spot to b all snow from this I would b cautious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 The models that are tucked inland or farther west are keying in on the mid level shortwave near the Carolinas featuring dramatic PVA as it begins to turn northward up the coast and feel the presence of the Western Atlantic ridge. The NAM has this feature in a similar fashion but just a tick farther east. Given the kicker bearing down on the mid level flow I would tend to believe that this won't come as far west as some of the Euro ensembles indicate. But it certainly is an indication as to why some of the models are showing a very rapidly developing and powerful system. The Euro for the sake of comparison has the surface low tracking inland and west of OBX. That is a good reference point because the snowier solutions such as the NAM take it over OBX or just east of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I will admit it is slightly concerning to see that many Euro ensemble members doing that considering their history of being at least reasonably accurate at this range. I will be a lot more concerned if we start to see other models tick west like that at 00z tonight. Do you think the Euro is just not handling the kicker well, while the gfs is a little to strong/east with it? - The Euro has been terrible with the northern stream while the GFS has done well this year and the kicker seems to be key too the exact track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.