Allsnow Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 less phasing then 12z…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Moderate snow never makes it north of Central NJ and that's a stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Through hr 75 NYC is under 0.50" total QPF. Much less north and west of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I personally like where the GFS is, we all know where it will trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 hr 78 it closes off and we get into some decent snows.. 996 200 miles east of delmarva Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 It's still a light to moderate event in most places but you're not going to have nearly the same dynamics as the NAM or the Euro. The GFS seems to always do this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 500mb still looks awesome, put itthis way, if we get the EURO to shift a tad East, the GFS more W, we got our storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 GFS is really the only outlier. It'll be late to the party here. Could be poor handling of the speed of the kicker/southern system as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 984 heading outside the bm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The GFS has done this with E-V-E-R-Y storm this year, and honestly, since I first started looking at wx models 12 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Don, are the plumes ever correct? I have seen these be terrible in the past. Best. I watch them more for trends, not details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 NE PA is 0.00" NNJ is 0.05-0.50" from NW to SE Central NJ is a bit more but BL issues South NJ is highest QPF but mostly rain. LI is ~0.50"+ Snow maps showing 2-4" or 4-6" for most of our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 One of the big issues that we don't need models to rely on is IMPACT. Im not sure about the NYC metro, but I know all of southwestern CT has 10-20" of concrete like snow on the ground with massive piles everywhere, as big as it gets a week after a snowstorm. There will be no where to put this snow.. If we get a MAJOR snowfall, there are going to be some major issues. Also a lot of trees still have snow on them. If we get a 15"+ paste job, power outages are also a concern.. Also all roofs have just as much snow on them.. NYC will probably start dumping snow in to the east river to get rid of the big piles. I am concerned however where the R/S line sets up. I just wonder if we will get mixing issues as we go thru thursday. I really hate sleet/freezing rain. I would much prefer either all rain or all snow. That sleet/ice stuff is just dangerous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Well, to be honest, it's not off by very much. This is not a bad run from where I sit and what I'm seeing. As per HZ, the 500mb looks very enticing, it just closes off a bit later and is a bit too quick with the kicker than the othr models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 GFS seems to finally get the storm going by 84 but by then it's largely offshore. What a weird run. Northern stream looks much more dominant than any other model in keeping the trough southeast. Huge outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 GFs would still be a nice storm, just not epic....it is colder this run though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 From the ALY AFD "AND WOULD NOT BE THE LEAST BIT SURPRISED TOSEE MODEL TRENDS FARTHER N AND W OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The GFS does this with literally every single storm. It did it with Sandy, it does it with most storms we have. First to catch on, first to lose it, and last to bring it back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 GFs would still be a nice storm, just not epic....it is colder this run though If a mid end advisory level snow is a nice storm for you then have at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 GFS seems to finally get the storm going by 84 but by then it's largely offshore. What a weird run. Northern stream looks much more dominant than any other model in keeping the trough southeast. Huge outlier. The only thing that the gfs has going for it, is that it has handled northern streams better this year and it might have a better handle on the kicker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 GFS seems to finally get the storm going by 84 but by then it's largely offshore. What a weird run. Northern stream looks much more dominant than any other model in keeping the trough southeast. Huge outlier. It's play on/emphasis with the northern stream feature makes me feel confident in it being an outlier too. Not saying it may end up not being right, but the fact it's alone right now and playing to one of the issues it tends to have in these setups, suggests we can wait on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 If a mid end advisory level snow is a nice storm for you then have at it. most years that would be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 first to lose it, and last to bring it back. This is almost always correct regarding the GFS and coastal storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The only thing that the gfs has going for it, is that it has handled northern streams better this year and it might have a better handle on the kicker The kicker though to me seems way too far west for it to be having the influence the GFS seems to think its going to have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The GFS has always been on the lower end of guidance in terms of QPF for most EC storms. But H5 wise, it's not far off. The GFS was also good with the surface track of the Feb blizz last year, but its QPF was way off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The GFS does this with literally every single storm. It did it with Sandy, it does it with most storms we have. First to catch on, first to lose it, and last to bring it back.I thought the EURO beat the GFS by 12hrs. on showing the anomalous left hand turn from the mid-30's LATITUDES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 Please take a quick look at the new pinned thread. Thanks.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Warning Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I personally like where the GFS is, we all know where it will trend Seems to me that the GFS is the clear outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 So is it going to suck for LI? I am 10 miles east of the Suffolk/Nassau border. I have been so lucky this year but I just want one more big one! I'm roughly the same distance from the Suffolk/Nassau border. About 10 miles too. If a more amped and tucked in low like the Euro depicts happens, we would get around 6-8", then change to some rain. I think the Euro is too far west. The GFS, which is east, would be all snow here but limited QPF, still 6-8". Looking at the other models which are more in the middle, the NAM and Ukie are very good for everyone in the area. NAM is 12"+. Too much on the table and still too early to tell. Once the energy enters British Columbia tomorrow and gets sampled, 12z runs tomorrow should bring a better consensus, seeing how much of the kicker will affect the track of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 18Z GFS Total Accumulated Precip Northeast http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014021018/gfs_apcpn_neus_15.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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