nyblizz44 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Lets be 100% clear here those saying at least 6+ at least with warmest model plz consider that Upton is far from bullish on this ' part of CWA will reach warning through plumes show only advisory' . This is FAR from a sealed deal. 24 hours of hand wringing await us: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Are the winds with this one, Any potential blizzard like conditions? if the nam verifies definitely a blizzard warning for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Who upton is being super conservative! Talking about advisory levels? That a seems off te table other then maybe central Suffolk east. Like is said earlier if the post Sandy storm created enough cold to make it snow in early November climo says its going to happen here. Unless of course we see 50-100 miles shift west. Not looking likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Who upton is being super conservative! Talking about advisory levels? That a seems off te table other then maybe central Suffolk east. Like is said earlier if the post Sandy storm created enough cold to make it snow in early November climo says its going to happen here. Unless of course we see 50-100 miles shift west. Not looking likely They mentioned uncertainty and the fact this is still 3 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 4k NAM has most areas snowing by 06z Thursday. It's come back a bit to other guidance now on snow starting after midnight. Should be enough to close mostly everything on Thursday. Schools might be in trouble if they have to close Thursday and Friday, which based off what we see so far, would be a necessity from a risk and safety standpoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Who upton is being super conservative! Talking about advisory levels? That a seems off te table other then maybe central Suffolk east. Like is said earlier if the post Sandy storm created enough cold to make it snow in early November climo says its going to happen here. Unless of course we see 50-100 miles shift west. Not looking likely Uhh, Sandy was much much more powerful than this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monmouthcounty11 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Lets be 100% clear here those saying at least 6+ at least with warmest model plz consider that Upton is far from bullish on this ' part of CWA will reach warning through plumes show only advisory' . This is FAR from a sealed deal. 24 hours of hand wringing await us: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Why did you eliminate the word SREF? They're referencing the SREF plumes, which you can be sure will change countless times in the next three days, extremely volatile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Post again... 1.1"QPF from PHL to NYC on the ECM ENS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Who upton is being super conservative! Talking about advisory levels? That a seems off te table other then maybe central Suffolk east. Like is said earlier if the post Sandy storm created enough cold to make it snow in early November climo says its going to happen here. Unless of course we see 50-100 miles shift west. Not looking likely All of LI should see warning level snows. Central LI on west should be fine, maybe a brief period of rain. The initial overrunning snows are good enough. Once the kicker gets sampled we'll know better. I think the Euro is too far west. Its Ens bring the 0c 850 all the way back to Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Lets be 100% clear here those saying at least 6+ at least with warmest model plz consider that Upton is far from bullish on this ' part of CWA will reach warning through plumes show only advisory' . This is FAR from a sealed deal. 24 hours of hand wringing await us: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Using anything the SREF's depicted at this range to get a handle on expectations should be considered idiocy. I have no problem with a conservative approach at this time by Upton but using the SREF's as the reasoning is not the way to go imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Winds aren't going to be that strong. You don't have a strong high pressing down the isobars to the northeast which would create a tight pressure gradient. Also we're likely not talking a sub 980mb low. High to mid 980's looks possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Uhh, Sandy was much much more powerful than this storm. The POST sandy snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Who upton is being super conservative! Talking about advisory levels? That a seems off te table other then maybe central Suffolk east. Like is said earlier if the post Sandy storm created enough cold to make it snow in early November climo says its going to happen here. Unless of course we see 50-100 miles shift west. Not looking likely Upton referred to the SREF plumes: ALTHOUGH SREF PLUMES AVERAGE IN THE ADVISORY RANGE...OR UNDER 6 INCHES MOST LOCALES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The GFS looks like it will finally be coming more on board with a further west track. The energy is already phasing in at hour 45 over the plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 By the way how come the nam doesn't run ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The GFS is showing the PV interaction at hour 48 as a piece attempts to phase in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 By the way how come the nam doesn't run ensembles? It's a short range high resolution model. Only the globals run ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Uhh, Sandy was much much more powerful than this storm.I said post sandy storm. Obviously sandy was many magnitudes stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Hour 54 starting to get its act together. Trough sharpening and heights rising a long the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 pv piece phasing in at hr 51 what a hard forecast for atlanta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 So far not as amped as the EURO ( good for coastal locations ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I don't like the look of the GFS. The NAM and Euro had the system much stronger already by hour 60. Still this should come west of 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Upton referred to the SREF plumes: ALTHOUGH SREF PLUMES AVERAGE IN THE ADVISORY RANGE...OR UNDER 6 INCHES MOST LOCALES. yes sir thats correct, However, they are taking an incredbly conservative approach. I think it could be, to a degree influenced by that 'Social media' blizzard that got general populous hyped up so its possible like a refree in a major sport they are correcting in the other direction. I say this based on the fact that I believe most models comfortably place KNYC in the 6+ envelope and potentially far more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I don't expect the GFS to look like the EURO, its been trending several runs now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 At hour 63 it's already interacting with the kicker. Precip is really lacking on the NW side. Luckily it's the GFS and not the Euro showing this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 hr 63 light snow to nyc…its def not as amped as the rest of the guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I think it can viewed as the eastern outlier, IMO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 H5 looks crappy. Squashed by the northern stream vort. This run isn't going to be great for anyone. Coastal scraper incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Upton referred to the SREF plumes: ALTHOUGH SREF PLUMES AVERAGE IN THE ADVISORY RANGE...OR UNDER 6 INCHES MOST LOCALES. Don, are the plumes ever correct? I have seen these be terrible in the past. Best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 They mentioned uncertainty and the fact this is still 3 days away.Exactly. Jeez. Just because they are cautious (usually smart near the coast) doesn't make them wrong. They don't make it snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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