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February 13-14 Potential Snowstorm II


earthlight

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Why couldn't this be 24 hours out instead of 60 :(....Euro with its more NW track should likely win, though the NAM 700mb makes a lot of sense with how it is modeled. 

Thats only been this winter...with theses types of storms its usually too amped... This run goes right over the SST boundary I have been talking about. So i actually like this track

post-4195-0-46515300-1392065401_thumb.gi

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We all know the NAM will slowly continue to trend NW...if i'm sitting 20+miles NW of the major cities I'm drooling right now. 

At this range the NAM actually tends to be too amplified. But you can see how the kicker arrives at a great time to push the storm east a little. If the kicker is slower, it likely would have been warmer and the low more tucked in. Coastal areas need an aggressive kicker to keep this all snow and remove the threat of a dryslot.

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We will really have to wait to get better sampling from the N SW tomorrow morning . Lets hope the changes are negligible .

Sometimes small changes 48 hours out don't turn out to wreck the entire solution as they would have  if there was an error 120  hours out .

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John, take a look at the Euro Individual members on WxBell. 

 

Some of them are seriously tucked into the coast. 

 

As one of my great professors always taught me, toss the outliers at each end (not saying they are outliers relative to other guidance) but toss the furthest west/east and then smooth the average and see what you get.

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We all know the NAM will slowly continue to trend NW...if i'm sitting 20+miles NW of the major cities I'm drooling right now.

In this set up it is not that simple. The incoming kicker and westerly flow will only allow for so much of a westward trend. I actually tend to think that we will see a tick southeast over time, but yes it is possible this ends up a little more tucked in than the NAM.

Even the warmer models give us all a foot of snow...I don't think there should be any panic in here at all.

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