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February 13-14 Potential Snowstorm II


earthlight

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To continue discussion from the previous thread..

 

It's going to be a really interesting northwestern edge that's for sure. The mid level winds are really pressing on the development of the cold conveyor belt/associated precipitation. But if the models are correct, this could be some of the heaviest snow we have seen in this area in a while. The modeled lift and dynamics are extremely impressive within the banding and although the snow growth and accumulation rates may not be "perfect" based on the thermal profiles, there is going to be some epic paste-snow in these bands should they develop.

 

The mid level setup on the models right now argues for a deformation band from DC to PHL and then moving northeastward to NJ/NYC/LI. But that can change. For now..it looks really impressive.

 

f84.gif

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Am I right that the system appears to be developing a bit slower than was forecasted yesterday, with the heaviest precipitation occuring (in NYC) late morning through evening on Thursday vs. early morning through afternoon on Thursday? If so, then it would be the evening rush hour on Thursday that would be impacted more than the morning rush?

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Just think what a band like this would do to Thursday travel from NC/VA border up to NYC. Schools closed is given with current thinking but are emergency mangers going to tell 20 million people not to go to work Thursday? NAM has large 2" qpf, even knocking that down 2/3 you get 12-18" snow right over I-95 during the day with 2-4" snowfall rates! Easy to picture cars stranded somewhere due to timing of storm.

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The NAM is showing one of the most impressive banding signals in this area in a few years. As of now we have to take it as eye candy only given that the NAM is well out of its "useful" range. But very impressive..

namNE_700_vvel_078.gif

It is the NAM but even if you cut down on its overall intensity it would still yield an easy MECS from PHL-NYC and LI up to SNE. Easily 12"+

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The NAM is showing one of the most impressive banding signals in this area in a few years. As of now we have to take it as eye candy only given that the NAM is well out of its "useful" range. But very impressive..

 

 

attachicon.gifnamNE_700_vvel_078.gif

 

Lifting is even more impressive at 500mb. But like you said, it's just eye candy now.

 

2ep62o9.jpg

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There are differences on the West Coast, but you can't simply toss the comparison to Jan 26-27 2011 at this point as shown on most forecast models. A very similar evolution with a phased shortwave trying to amplify up along the East Coast. Intense banding, lift and dynamics -- as its stands now this looks a tick farther west of that event. But you can compare the east coast on these two maps for yourself.

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/WRF_12z/f78.gif

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2011/012621.png

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Lifting is even more impressive at 500mb. But like you said, it's just eye candy now.

 

2ep62o9.jpg

just to the south of NYC ... been the favored area this year, and wouldnt be surprised to see coastal areas south of NYC cash in once again as I expect the extreme dynamics to overcome the marginal temps... 

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There are differences on the West Coast, but you can't simply toss the comparison to Jan 26-27 2011 at this point as shown on most forecast models. A very similar evolution with a phased shortwave trying to amplify up along the East Coast. Intense banding, lift and dynamics -- as its stands now this looks a tick farther west of that event. But you can compare the east coast on these two maps for yourself.

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/WRF_12z/f78.gif

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2011/012621.png

 

We want to see H5 and H7 lows closing off to the south and east of us, to get a setup like 1/26-27/11.

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all we need is 3.5" Thursday in KNYC to give us 30" since 1/21...That's a lock on some models but it's still to far out for any snow amounts....I think we could get at least another inch of liquid from this and at least 50% of it snow...All snow would push this winter into the historic category...

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all we need is 3.5" Thursday in KNYC to give us 30" since 1/21...That's a lock on some models but it's still to far out for any snow amounts....I think we could get at least another inch of liquid from this and at least 50% of it snow...All snow would push this winter into the historic category...

 

Well according to the 00z ECMWF Ensembles, there's a greater than 95% chance of 3", and a greater than 80% chance of 6" 

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