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The Big One - Observation


JoshM

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I did earlier... I really have to commend the GSP NWS because they did mention this several times today as being the primary reason for why the sleet went further north than expected. What needs to be mention is that the changeover wouldn't have happened if the moisture and precipitation had kept up over the upstate. When it starting getting scattered that was a bad sign that the deep moisture was no longer there. 

Phil, did the storms along the gulf coast today and this evening in fla. also help to cut off the moisture flow and help shaft us here in the upstate of sc as well?

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Phil, did the storms along the gulf coast today and this evening in fla. also help to cut off the moisture flow and help shaft us here in the upstate of sc as well?

 

Earlier this morning... it certainly could have had an impact. However, the problem since then has been the fact most of the forcing for lift was north and west (outside of the wedge) after the initial shot of WAA induced snowfall hit.

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well.......looks to be about over in the upstate.  Total precip at GSP was 0.8 inches but the big loser was at Greenville downtown airport (KGMU)......a whopping 0.49 inches and all sleet.  I think I saw where it was GOM convection that robbed alot of our moisture transport.

 

Don't get me wrong I am grateful for any winter weather I can get and it has been a blast tracking this storm since last week, but I be lying if I said I was not terrribly disappointed in the results in MBY after watching model after model spit out snow accumulations of anywhere from 8 to 12 plus inches.  At this time I have about 3 inches of slop on the ground.

 

I'll lick my wounds for a few days and jump back on the horse, but this one stung a bit.

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Whats terrible is that there is really NO way to know for sure if the GOM will rob moisture transport.  It did today for sure!!  from my area to atlanta and south, BUT the worst looser was the upstate.  I feel really bad about that.  I know there is NOTHING you can do, but it stings....

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Earlier this morning... it certainly could have had an impact. However, the problem since then has been the fact most of the forcing for lift was north and west (outside of the wedge) after the initial shot of WAA induced snowfall hit.

Phil, thanks for still providing some insight on NC being that you're not here anymore. So, what do you think about tomorrow....column cold enough for snow throughout the state and where do you think the best rates may be? Thanks!

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Earlier this morning... it certainly could have had an impact. However, the problem since then has been the fact most of the forcing for lift was north and west (outside of the wedge) after the initial shot of WAA induced snowfall hit.

 

 

So in other words the upper air support went west the surface went east with pretty much a void in the middle for snowfall. Only to leave ip/zr.

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Man, GSO and INT are getting destroyed by heavy sleet right now.  If only this was snow...  I haven't seen sleet like this in years.  Maybe PD II, but I'm not even sure that compared.  Radar indicates the best is yet to come.

 

yeah this is awesome man.... 6.5" snow ... working on over 1" of sleet ... now if we can just put 3-4" more of snow on top tomorrow morning ...

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Man, GSO and INT are getting destroyed by heavy sleet right now.  If only this was snow...  I haven't seen sleet like this in years.  Maybe PD II, but I'm not even sure that compared.  Radar indicates the best is yet to come.

 

I have never experienced sleet like that in my life. It only lasted about 15 minutes here between Asheboro and Denton, but that was intense. :yikes:

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Wow, that sleet meant business earlier. Easily an inch or more in sleet and the wind making it come down in sheets actually drifted it up in spots. 3-4" snow/sleet total is what I'll go with based on measurements earlier today/tonight and just a min ago. Definitely have some 6" spots around the front of the house and I'm sure in the back too. If we can get lucky enough to snag a quick 2-4" in the morning/afternoon like the HRRR is showing (actually shows 8-10 but it has to be smoking crack) I'll be ecstatic.

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Intermittent light ZR. Temps are steady. I think the warming must be due to the coastal front and other synoptic or mesoscale features, and not due to the latent heat of fusion. I don't think we've had heavy enough ZR to significantly raise temperatures. Since the 925mb low will be passing by just to the east shortly, we should stay below freezing here in Durham all night. Given the precip over central SC, I suppose we could reach the forecast 1/2" of ice, but I have my doubts. I expect to wake up with the power still on.

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