JoshWeather Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The modeling has it shriveling up as it passes over GA and then expanding over WNC in the morning. the same modeling that has been wrong about most everything except that there is something falling from the sky? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenae72 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 22 degrees, wind gusts picking up, IP Kernersville, nc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 back to mod snow. sleet is gone for first time since about 715 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Sleet is just pounding the house right now (Concord), amazing! Oh if only this would have been snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Hardest sleet of the night right now temp up to 26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 the same modeling that has been wrong about most everything except that there is something falling from the sky? True enough, but it isn't unexpected for that to happen. Radar trends are starting to look a little better for here. We can probably do some good pinging for a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshWeather Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I do think this is the band that would have gotten the I-85 corridor their foot of snow if it were all snow. However, we instead have to deal with sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 back to mod snow. sleet is gone for first time since about 715 Phil don't seem to positive on the Deformation band in NC? says it's in TN. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriadDeac Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 NW High Point 22.1 Heavy sleet, maybe the heaviest yet (Certainly the loudest) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Huge dry slot sw NC all precip drying up in Ga, Al. too # not liking the look of things. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowinnc Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 6" snow + 1/2" sleet in North Raleigh. We are supposed to get another inch or two tomorrow but honestly this has been such a great storm I would be totally fine with what we have as long as the rain doesn't wash too much of it away. It really overperformed for us, which I don't ever remember happening. I feel REALLY badly for everyone in the Triad/Upstate SC. When you are told many, many , many times that you should get at least 10 to 12 inches and you get half of that it must be a real bummer. I hope you guys get nailed by the deformation band tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 True enough, but it isn't unexpected for that to happen. Radar trends are starting to look a little better for here. We can probably do some good pinging for a few hours. You should do well the next 6-7 hours with sleet, probably not what you wanted but it will be a skating rink tomorrow, then we need to figure out where that ULL is tracking tomorrow and that it closes off at the right time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Phil don't seem to positive on the Deformation band in NC? says it's in TN. Thoughts? i think it will pivot through tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 i think it will pivot through tomorrow morning. Thanks, but I don't like that huge dry slot to our SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Haven't taken a ruler out to measure, but I'd say I had about 3" of snow, 1" ip, and a glaze of fzra all compacted into about 3". I guess I should be happy with that considering the last couple winters here. Although to be modeled in the jackpot zone and end up in the screw zone makes me want to I will def keep this storm in the back of my mind in the future and remember the warm nose that edges in during a large storm like this, not to mention the moisture robbing convection. If only we could have gone with the original big overrunning event I think we could have jackpoted in the Upstate. It was impressive seeing this much sleet, prob some of the most I have ever seen with a storm. I'm not hold out much hope for the deformation band, but you never know. Maybe I'll wake up to a nice surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherheels Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Officially eclipsed 6" here in the heart of the triad. Not too shabby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Phil - can you explain more about the inverted trough and strong wedge in terms of how it impacted precip amounts? Sure... so there are favored regions of confluence that are produced when you have a wedge occurring in the presence of a rapidly intensifying cyclone at the surface and aloft. The wedge naturally forces an inverted trough along TN where downsloping produces lee cyclogenesis. As the upper-level cyclone ramps up, the heights start to crash and force lift, and the first place the lift is favored is where this confluence axis sets up just to the west of the inverted trough produced by this downsloping flow. When temperatures are cold enough, you get some decent snow events this way. Earlier today most of these locations were getting rain, but as the CAA started to ramp up behind on the edge of this inverted trough, everyone transitioned over to snow. Unfortunately if not your not in the deformation band, you might find yourself in the "dry slot" which commonly occurs between the deformation band and the WAA induced snowfall in the front end of the vent. Since the confluence favored the band further west due to the inverted trough... the deformation band set up further west than expected, something that wasn't necessarily well forecasted by the models. Thanks for the info! I'm probably done with snow then.... as far as accumulations. I wouldn't say done... but you probably won't get under the very heaviest rates of the deformation band, but maybe side-swiped as it goes by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 WxSouth precip in west NC should redevelop overnight . #tnwx eastern is in for slamming all night. Quite a bit more to come. some 18" totals likely WxSouth Not trusting any model right now on that upper low in Northern Alabama. It has nearly stalled. Means big snow #etnwx #tnwx #wncwx all night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Thanks, but I don't like that huge dry slot to our SW the radar will beging to orient north to south as we go through the night. it will fill in again over nga/sc and western NC. how heavy this band is i can't tell you, but the dynamics will be solid as the trough continues to sharpen and 5h low cuts off. We have had storms in the past totally dependent on this portion of the storm. i feel pretty confident an additional 3-6 is possible tomorrow morning over the foothills/n piedmont Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Phil don't seem to positive on the Deformation band in NC? says it's in TN. Thoughts? I mean you can see the hole starting to appear in the WNC mountains... the strong band over TN isn't pivoting yet and we need this to shift more N/S to really get in on the action in WNC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 up to 33 degrees in Wake Forest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 the radar will beging to orient north to south as we go through the night. it will fill in again over nga/sc and western NC. how heavy this band is i can't tell you, but the dynamics will be solid as the trough continues to sharpen and 5h low cuts off. We have had storms in the past totally dependent on this portion of the storm. i feel pretty confident an additional 3-6 is possible tomorrow morning over the foothills/n piedmont How much you up to? I had 7 but sleeted last 3 hours or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Sure... so there are favored regions of confluence that are produced when you have a wedge occurring in the presence of a rapidly intensifying cyclone at the surface and aloft. The wedge naturally forces an inverted trough along TN where downsloping produces lee cyclogenesis. As the upper-level cyclone ramps up, the heights start to crash and force lift, and the first place the lift is favored is where this confluence axis sets up just to the west of the inverted trough produced by this downsloping flow. When temperatures are cold enough, you get some decent snow events this way. Earlier today most of these locations were getting rain, but as the CAA started to ramp up behind on the edge of this inverted trough, everyone transitioned over to snow. Unfortunately if not your not in the deformation band, you might find yourself in the "dry slot" which commonly occurs between the deformation band and the WAA induced snowfall in the front end of the vent. Since the confluence favored the band further west due to the inverted trough... the deformation band set up further west than expected, something that wasn't necessarily well forecasted by the models. Thanks for the explanation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I mean you can see the hole starting to appear in the WNC mountains... the strong band over TN isn't pivoting yet and we need this to shift more N/S to really get in on the action in WNC. Okay thanks, for explaining it. I appreciate it #88 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 You should do well the next 6-7 hours with sleet, probably not what you wanted but it will be a skating rink tomorrow, then we need to figure out where that ULL is tracking tomorrow and that it closes off at the right time I've accepted the pingers for the rest of the night. I'll take them in stride. It's better than nothing and I've got 6" on the ground, so there's really nothing to complain about. The roads are a total disaster (having IP rather than SN probably made them worse, in fact) and it looks like a four-day weekend is on tap. If we really go crazy with the sleet, we might be able to make it to 7" or 8". 8" would be a nice benchmark as I haven't gotten that much snow since January 2002. Either way, we verified our Winter Storm Warning for 6-10". The ULL definitely interests me tomorrow. As HKY_WX says, we've had storms totally dependent on this portion of the storm in the past (ex: 1/17/13, IIRC?). The HRRR definitely paints a pretty picture. It's a wild card, but I think we'd all be very excited about the possibility if we didn't already get a major winter storm the day prior. I'm looking forward to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Temps rising quickly throughout Wake County. Now I'm seeing upper 20s and 30s south of Durham. Looks like about 1/10" glaze out there with very light freezing drizzle at the moment. Amazing how quickly the ZR warms the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Sledding will be fantastic for the kids for 2-3 days at this point. So for those wanting more, you are really deciding on whether you want to be functional by Saturday or Monday. I need my kids back in school and my boat in the water. This has been awesome, i will hit the hills tomorrow, but i have enough at 6.5" of combo snow. This stuff wont melt! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 How much you up to? I had 7 but sleeted last 3 hours or so. i have about 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshWeather Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Seems the winners of this storm will be Eastern Tennessee. Not sure anyone even talked about them for the last week. How about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 i think you guys are jumping the gun a little bit. let this play out tomorrow and i think most will be happy by the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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