phil882 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Same up here! Been zr for the last hour despite what Cessarich is claiming on his Super duper doppler. Picked up 2" of snow earlier then a load of sleet. Now freezing rainm That is correct NeGa and dual pole radar is about the same concept. 50/50 snow / sleet after 4 hours of ZR! Maybe we can get a couple more inches of something out of this to lessen the sting of failure. I’m in Clemson We’ve gotten 1.8 inches of snow, followed by an inch of IP and a glaze of ice on tree’s. I’m expecting it to switch back to snow at any moment! I really feel for the guys in the upstate of SC... you guys got absolutely shafted from this event. Some thoughts since earlier today: 1) You guys literally got in the horrible spot between the strong WAA advection snows and the strong deformation snows are somehow occuring well NW of all of the model forecasts. The deformation band is in freaking E TN!!! Basically every model was too far east. This is once again another case of the inverted trough that was poorly forecasted from the models. Beware when there is a strong wedge! 2) Most of the places NE of I-85 switched over not necessarily because of the warm nose, but that there was no moisture in the snow growth region. The end result is that all the precip produced was in the lowest levels which only supported supercooled droplets. The end result is sleet and freezing rain in the cold 925 hPa temperatures. It looks like the big winners from these outcomes are the folks in TN and the folks that got the huge WAA induced snowfall earlier in the midlands and eastern NC. The losers are the upstate of SC and to a lesser extend the mountains of NC, which are just outside of the best deformation induced snowfall occurring west in TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Looking at the qpf observations from KGSO it looks like during our heavy burst this afternoon with those perfect flakes we were pushing 15:1 ratios. Overall for the snowfall it looks like we had 12-13:1. When it was ripping about 3pm this afternoon that really was just about the most perfect snow I've ever seen. Large, perfectly formed flakes floating around like feathers (and lots of them!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Sounds sweet lol! Be careful! I've got very fine flakes falling here. That band coming over the AL/GA border might provide a good 5 minutes of moderate snow. Lol got the tunes cranked and popped a beverage. Reports from Facebook indicate several power outages in the area now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I really feel for the guys in the upstate of SC... you guys got absolutely shafted from this event. Some thoughts since earlier today: 1) You guys literally got in the horrible spot between the strong WAA advection snows and the strong deformation snows are somehow occuring well NW of all of the model forecasts. The deformation band is in freaking E TN!!! Basically every model was too far east. This is once again another case of the inverted trough that was poorly forecasted from the models. Beware when there is a strong wedge! 2) Most of the places NE of I-85 switched over not necessarily because of the warm nose, but that there was no moisture in the snow growth region. The end result is that all the precip produced was in the lowest levels which only supported supercooled droplets. The end result is sleet and freezing rain in the cold 925 hPa temperatures. It looks like the big winners from these outcomes are the folks in TN and the folks that got the huge WAA induced snowfall earlier in the midlands and eastern NC. The losers are the upstate of SC and to a lesser extend the mountains of NC, which are just outside of the best deformation induced snowfall occurring west in TN. So you saying all this talk about Def band setting up late tonight and tomorrow here, not happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshWeather Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 So you saying all this talk about Def band setting up late tonight and tomorrow here, not happen? did you really expect it to? What sounds like 100 pounds of sleet banging on my window as we speak in charlotte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raysum Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I really feel for the guys in the upstate of SC... you guys got absolutely shafted from this event. Some thoughts since earlier today: 1) You guys literally got in the horrible spot between the strong WAA advection snows and the strong deformation snows are somehow occuring well NW of all of the model forecasts. The deformation band is in freaking E TN!!! Basically every model was too far east. This is once again another case of the inverted trough that was poorly forecasted from the models. Beware when there is a strong wedge! 2) Most of the places NE of I-85 switched over not necessarily because of the warm nose, but that there was no moisture in the snow growth region. The end result is that all the precip produced was in the lowest levels which only supported supercooled droplets. The end result is sleet and freezing rain in the cold 925 hPa temperatures. It looks like the big winners from these outcomes are the folks in TN and the folks that got the huge WAA induced snowfall earlier in the midlands and eastern NC. The losers are the upstate of SC and to a lesser extend the mountains of NC, which are just outside of the best deformation induced snowfall occurring west in TN. Thanks Phil! Any hope with the ULL moving through early in the morning for the Upstate of SC? I am disappointed that we did not get more snow but the sleet has been epic here. It has sleeted since 2pm today, never stopping, slowing down but at times it has been incredibly heavy. I am sure I have a 2 or 3 inches of sleet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattwis519 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Moderate snow in Cartersville for the last hour or so. Praying that band in AL clips us later tonight. We may actually hit our forecasted snow total here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 did you really expect it to? What sounds like 100 pounds of sleet banging on my window as we speak in charlotte. No I never expect it to snow here, just always hoping!! EDIT: I posted before the storm started here they forecasted 10-15 inches, I said I would be lucky to get half that and that's where I'm at 7 inches. sn/ip mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a5ehren Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Thanks Phil! Any hope with the ULL moving through early in the morning for the Upstate of SC? I am disappointed that we did not get more snow but the sleet has been epic here. It has sleeted since 2pm today, never stopping, slowing down but at times it has been incredibly heavy. I am sure I have a 2 or 3 inches of sleet! Unless it takes a hard right turn about...now, the ULL looks like it is bound for West Virginia, not the Carolinas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 2) Most of the places NE of I-85 switched over not necessarily because of the warm nose, but that there was no moisture in the snow growth region. The end result is that all the precip produced was in the lowest levels which only supported supercooled droplets. The end result is sleet and freezing rain in the cold 925 hPa temperatures. Not sure if you saw it, but this was in the aftn AFD from GSP... PRECIP TYPE IS COMPLICATED BY SUSPECT ABSENCE OF ICE NUCLEI THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON THE GFS AND NAM. GIVEN THE TREMENDOUS MOISTURE AND OVERALL COLD LLVL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...I BELIEVE THAT ICE NUCLEI WILL BE PRESENT. HOWEVER...DOPPLER VELOCITY AND DUAL POL AGREE WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH DEVELOPING AN H85 WARM NOSE OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT. THE WARMING ALONG THE EASTERN TIER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT...YIELDING A BLEND OF SLEET AND FZRA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Saving grace here is storm was pretty good. Had 4.5 yesterday. None melted and snowed from 1 or 2 am til noon. Couple more inches. Couple inches sleet. And now realize a LOT more ice than I thought lol (might be dark a while. Will post til battery dies Blowing and drifting this morning and now pouring snow again. Power outages around south Habershsm. This snow now may have been the final trigger to take out trees already covered. 6.5" snow 1.5" or so sleet, .25ish zr and a snow topper. Bout 8" of "stuff" on ground. Said 8" of stuff now turned into concrete lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lookingnorth Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 3.5-4.5 inches if snow/sleet in Chapel Hill. I'll be happy so long as I don't lose power or get any rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 So you saying all this talk about Def band setting up late tonight and tomorrow here, not happen? It will need to pivot significantly the next 3-6 hours. Not impossible, but that will also mean the wedge which has remained firmly in place will have to give way. If your temperature starts rapidly rising as the flow shifts to downslope in the lee of the Apps, then you the wedge is finally giving way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 2) Most of the places NE of I-85 switched over not necessarily because of the warm nose, but that there was no moisture in the snow growth region. The end result is that all the precip produced was in the lowest levels which only supported supercooled droplets. The end result is sleet and freezing rain in the cold 925 hPa temperatures. Looks like this is also what happened north of us in Atlanta........even under the heavier returns the sleet just wasn't that heavy. i'd see heavy returns and was really surprised that it was just basically heavy drizzle. Was it the gulf convection that prevented moisture transport into the snow growth region or were other factors involved? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 No I never expect it to snow here, just always hoping!! EDIT: I posted before the storm started here they forecasted 10-15 inches, I said I would be lucky to get half that and that's where I'm at 7 inches. sn/ip mix Sounds like you made a good call frosty...I thought you were going to get a bigger hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davenc Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 This is the most dynamic storm I've seen in many years...WOW...The sleet storm going on imby is amazing....the moisture extends clear to the panhandle ...it looks like all of it is setting up to train right up through central/western NC....had 5" snow earlier and at least 2" of sleet....can see another couple inches of sleet. Hopefully a changeover back to snow before ending....awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BG_Slick Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 sleets continues...heavy at times...23F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Not sure if you saw it, but this was in the aftn AFD from GSP... PRECIP TYPE IS COMPLICATED BY SUSPECT ABSENCE OF ICE NUCLEI THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON THE GFS AND NAM. GIVEN THE TREMENDOUS MOISTURE AND OVERALL COLD LLVL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...I BELIEVE THAT ICE NUCLEI WILL BE PRESENT. HOWEVER...DOPPLER VELOCITY AND DUAL POL AGREE WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH DEVELOPING AN H85 WARM NOSE OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT. THE WARMING ALONG THE EASTERN TIER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT...YIELDING A BLEND OF SLEET AND FZRA. I did earlier... I really have to commend the GSP NWS because they did mention this several times today as being the primary reason for why the sleet went further north than expected. What needs to be mention is that the changeover wouldn't have happened if the moisture and precipitation had kept up over the upstate. When it starting getting scattered that was a bad sign that the deep moisture was no longer there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I really feel for the guys in the upstate of SC... you guys got absolutely shafted from this event. Some thoughts since earlier today: 1) You guys literally got in the horrible spot between the strong WAA advection snows and the strong deformation snows are somehow occuring well NW of all of the model forecasts. The deformation band is in freaking E TN!!! Basically every model was too far east. This is once again another case of the inverted trough that was poorly forecasted from the models. Beware when there is a strong wedge! Phil - can you explain more about the inverted trough and strong wedge in terms of how it impacted precip amounts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow haven Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Still freezing rain here in Rockingham, nc current temp of 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
norcarolinian Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 sleet/snow mix ... windy ... 6.25" snow ... ~.5 sleet ... 20.2 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshWeather Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 its been sleeting its ass off for the last 3 hours in north charlotte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 It will need to pivot significantly the next 3-6 hours. Not impossible, but that will also mean the wedge which has remained firmly in place will have to give way. If your temperature starts rapidly rising as the flow shifts to downslope in the lee of the Apps, then you the wedge is finally giving way. Thanks for the info! I'm probably done with snow then.... as far as accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davenc Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 What I would give to be in Roanoke tonight.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I did earlier... I really have to commend the GSP NWS because they did mention this several times today as being the primary reason for why the sleet went further north than expected. What needs to be mention is that the changeover wouldn't have happened if the moisture and precipitation had kept up over the upstate. When it starting getting scattered that was a bad sign that the deep moisture was no longer there. I was looking at the modeled 850mb temps and soundings earlier on the NAM and GFS and was puzzled as to why the sleet had made it so far NW. At first glance I was thinking that the Euro and Euro Ensemble were too cold and that the warmer NAM had scored better with temperatures...but in reality, it looked like the late NAM runs trended colder toward the Euro, but that wasn't the problem, the lack of RH in the snow growth was, as you've mentioned. That's really puzzling considering how juicy this gulf low was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 +IP. Hammering. 22 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshWeather Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 man, that band that dumped all that snow in Alabama really shriveled up. I'm not seeing how this thing is gonna lay down precip for NC through the afternoon tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Setzy1517 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 +IP. Hammering. 22 degrees. This. Wind chill is definitely in the single digits at GSO as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 man, that band that dumped all that snow in Alabama really shriveled up. I'm not seeing how this thing is gonna lay down precip for NC through the afternoon tomorrow The modeling has it shriveling up as it passes over GA and then expanding over WNC in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 man, that band that dumped all that snow in Alabama really shriveled up. I'm not seeing how this thing is gonna lay down precip for NC through the afternoon tomorrow I keep watching south of ATL and west over to south of BHM and have noticed some back building. As of now it's nothing and like phil said, that ULL needs to track due east starting now. Curious to know what Robert is looking at sypnotically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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