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The Big One - Observation


JoshM

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Nice storm, but not even close to historical.  Just under 5" north of GSO before IP hit 3-4 hours earlier than modeled on the 12Z NAM & GFS.  After 20 years of living here, wraparound is always a longshot, so will not hold my breath on any additional accumulation tomorrow.  Nice storm, but nothing close to the anticipated epic event thus far.

Oh it's been epic alright; epic failure, epic bust, epic let down...  :snowing:  precipitation really breaking up in NGA, Upstate. Other than a few more pellets, that does it for the historical storm of 2014. Maybe two and a half with sleet here in easley :ski:

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RAH had us at 6-10...seems to be right on track.  It had epic "potential" if everything went perfectly, but how often does that happen?  I guess there's a reason we have had a ton of 8-10" events in the past but only a few ever much larger than that.

Very true.  I was buying in to the higher totals on the Euro and today's US models.  Should know better - we'll end up with the low end of RAH's 6-10.  Climo for this area is a much better predictor than any computer model.

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1 1/2" Sn with maybe pushing close to 1" of sleet.

 

Hoping to cash in later tonight as the system moves through. <- Per GSP and Roberts thoughts.

Thanks, Strong!  What kind of totals do you have?  Sleeting to beat the band right now with lots more downstream apparently.

 

NE Hickory, NC.

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Very true.  I was buying in to the higher totals on the Euro and today's US models.  Should know better - we'll end up with the low end of RAH's 6-10.  Climo for this area is a much better predictor than any computer model.

We might pile up the sleet tonight and the deformation band holds potential tomorrow.  Their 6-10" call looks good, IMO.

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1 1/2" Sn with maybe pushing close to 1" of sleet.

 

Hoping to cash in later tonight as the system moves through. <- Per GSP and Roberts thoughts.

 

I thought you'd have more than that, as I'm sure you did too.  I admire your positive attitude through it all.  Others could learn something by following your example.  I too was hoping for much more snow, but I'm going to be satisfied with this storm because it's the biggest I've experienced since Christmas 2010.  I hope you get nailed by that ULL in the morning.

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Thanks man. After following winter storms closely for years, I have learned it is always better to be positive even if you hate the outcome! Life is better that way! With that said. Hope the boom comes down in the morning!!

I thought you'd have more than that, as I'm sure you did too. I admire your positive attitude through it all. Others could learn something by following your example. I too was hoping for much more snow, but I'm going to be satisfied with this storm because it's the biggest I've experienced since Christmas 2010. I hope you get nailed by that ULL in the morning.

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Ok wow. My obs this evening were skewed. My deck was protected by the house. Went out to investigate power situation. Neighborhood dark. My lab did not break thru ice when she went out. Maybe .2 to .25 limbs and trees leaning from snow and ice and the kicker? Radar empty but holy moly it is snowing to beat the band. It is just pouring. The glacier description is the best to describe lol.

Have phone and iPad to use til they need charging but otherwise my power has been out 15-20 min and after seeing roads and snow am thinking might not be fixed in 30 min or so.

Of course being a wx weenie at heart it is AWESOME out there. Everything is glowing, trees are creaking and snow is a flying :lmao:

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Ok wow. My obs this evening were skewed. My deck was protected by the house. Went out to investigate power situation. Neighborhood dark. My lab did not break thru ice when she went out. Maybe .2 to .25 limbs and trees leaning from snow and ice and the kicker? Radar empty but holy moly it is snowing to beat the band. It is just pouring. The glacier description is the best to describe lol.

Have phone and iPad to use til they need charging but otherwise my power has been out 15-20 min and after seeing roads and snow am thinking might not be fixed in 30 min or so.

Of course being a wx weenie at heart it is AWESOME out there. Everything is glowing, trees are creaking and snow is a flying :lmao:

Sounds sweet lol! Be careful!

 

 

I've got very fine flakes falling here. That band coming over the AL/GA border might provide a good 5 minutes of moderate snow. 

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10" in Roanoke County VA here as of 1030 and it is easily about 2" an hour right now under a heavy band. Bright orange and red returns coming north out of southern va this looks to mean business when it rolls through. Anyone have an idea when this deform band will set up shop toward morning for my area? My wife's work still wants to open unreal!!

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Strangest freezing rain I've ever seen. We've had light rain drizzle for a couple hours now -- temp is holding steady right at 32. Cars are glazed over, covered porch deck is just wet though, satellite dish has gone out from ice, I guess. When the wind gusts, you can hear the rain slapping on the 80' pines which really sounds like sleet, but it's all liquid. Water is dripping off the side porch roof - I guess just running off the glazed surface of the snow up there. Interestingly, with as much water that is dripping, and all the glazing on the cars and all, there aren't any icicles.

 

Really bizarre to observe.

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