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The Big One - Observation


JoshM

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still a bunch of sleet falling.  it looks like it really wants to go to snow with flakes now and then but so far no changeover back to snow

 

As long as that deform band keeps heading due east and fills in in Alabama and western Ga., I'll feel pretty good.  If that somehow doesn't make it over here and I don't see any snow tonight, I have to admit at being just a little disappointed.  That said, I'll go measure how much sleet we have....should be close to 3 inches by now.

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Heavy sleet here but snow is starting to mix in.  Went out and measured. Had 3 inches on the concrete deck and 5 inches on an elevated flat surface. 

 

That's good news if the snow/sleet line is working back south.  I guess it's rate-dependent, but still.  We're going to get hammered during the evening, most likely, so the rates will be there.

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Well, every Metro area Met that I've seen/heard still is calling for this to last into the day tomorrow, so I'm just going to stop worrying about the radar returns. Perhaps I'm the only one that thinks they don't look too promising for SW NC.

 

For now, I'll just enjoy the incessant hissing of 95% IP and hope for the best when it comes to a transition/deform band tonight!

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27° in Dacula and a light freezing drizzle.  Most unreal storm I can remember.  So much sleet for me and so little snow.

 

 If the impressive sleet here on the northside of ATL were to continue til the ~6PM changeover time to snow per 12Z Euro/GFS when 0C 850 finally gets here, that could mean an impressive ~3" of IP for the entire storm and put us not far below 2/1979 and 1/1988, each of which had ~4" of sleet at KATL officially. That being said, I suspect KATL, itself, will end up with less IP than Dunwoody. I'll be measuring later. I was at 1.5" of as of 3 PM and bet I'm over 2" by now. This is already the most impressive sleetstorm on at least the northside of ATL since 1/1988!

 After that, expect snow on top of the IP.

 Based on the overperformance of this storm for the last three hours here combined with the underperformance of late morning during the lull, I now believe it has just about met overall expectations here to this point!

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Just started to hear the ice in the snow. Right at 4.75. Little ice might help the sledding we just got in from round 1. Work is closed tomorrow. Hopefully we can get the snow machine ramped up latter tonight. When you see those huge flakes the icy mix is not far behind.

 

Now is about the time where the 850 mb 0C isotherm is going to start pivoting from more E-W to N-S.  This is going to be interesting.  I hope we stay on the west side of the line for most of the time.  It's going to be close.  I fully expect to mix, but I'd hate to waste too much QPF as sleet.

 

Things appear to be mostly lining up with the 12z Euro's depiction of the snow/sleet line so far, from what I can tell.

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that one on the sc/nc line is nasty looking. this is composite radar, the ref doesn't pick it up due to the mountains.

 

This just came through Spartanburg.  All heavy sleet.  I'm sure it will be dumping snow in the mountains.  Our warm layer cant be that big because we are sub freezing 850 through the surface according to mesoanalysis.

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About 6 inches in Hillsborough so far and per radar it looks like we're in a good spot right now-hopefully the sleet will hold off for a while. Still amazed by all of this.

4" in downtown Hillsborough. 

 

Drove from apex -> Hillsborough. 3.5 hours. an hour of that was going from 40 to downtown via nc86

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