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The Big One - Observation


JoshM

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The biggest problem I see for ATL now is that the dry slot may have allowed some warming in the mid levels that may cause this next round to be mainly FZRA and not sleet

Let's hope not.. There is a lot of moisture ramping up and incoming. There is already a noticeable amount of ice in the trees and it is freezing drizzle now.

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Snow began to fall just after 12 PM IMBY here in NE Hickory.  It was very light at first, and then began to pick up in intensity around 12:25 PM.  Steady snow now falling outside.  It has had no problem accumulating on grass, trees, shrubs, and elevated surfaces.  The rates aren't quite high enough yet to get it to stick to the road.  The ground is definitely cold enough to receive it, though.  The temperature is 27 F, and it has been that cold or colder since roughly sun down yesterday.  And, so it begins...

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 Here in Dunwoody, just north of Atlanta, there has been freezing drizzle for awhile making the sleetcover really slick. It is now 29.3 and just a little above the lowest to this point. I measured just under 1" of sleet. Based on reliable model consensus, I would have expected roughly 2" of sleet by about now with more to come. There was a little lost to rain and some lost to ZR to this point. There is some glaze on all objects/trees/bushes. However, regarding total liquid equivalent, I doubt we're too far below model projections though I can't confirm that at this time.

That's what I'm seeing in my slightly different part of Dunwoody as well. I'm thinking we lost some to rain last night - it wasn't below freezing until a decent while after I went to bed (1:00am or so).

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If you're in metro Atlanta I wouldn't worry. The radar appears to be redeveloping nicely now,

 

 Consistent with this, the 0Z Euro still had nearly another 0.60" of qpf still to go for much of the Atlanta area after 1 PM today, which includes ~3" of legit. snow from ~0.30" qpf (i.e., with 850's all at or below 0C) after ~7 PM today. So, that would mean ~0.30" of IP/ZR qpf to go. IF there is to be ~0.30" of qpf to go before the snow, that would roughly mean 1.2" of additional IP if it were to be just about all IP. That would mean another ~4" of IP/S to go with the nearly1" already on the ground for a total of ~5", which would certainly still be a major storm in my book. So, we appear to still have a long way to go.

 

 I'm now at 29.1 with freezing drizzle continuing.

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Good lord, I've had this incessant freezing mist for lack of better words for the last 2 hrs.  I may hit half the forecasted totals by March 31 at this rate!  Anywho, down to about 26 degrees and holding steady....radar should begin lighting up through the rest of this evening in NE Georgia.....looking forward to hopefully being on the NW side of the 850 MB low track.....now I'm just holding my breath for snowflakes instead of stinging ice pellets (better than FRZ rain though).  Hopefully we're just far enough NE to stay out of that.

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