audioguy3107 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Please say this is sarcastic? The thing hasn't even started yet? Really man. C'mon. 37 here I know right? Nothing has changed, not sure where the bust talk came from. I have been skeptical from the getgo about accumulating snow in Atlanta proper during this first wave unless you're way up in the northern burbs. Looks like a wait and see for areas like Cumming, Buford, Kennesaw, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saltslugs Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Down to 34.9 in Dalton, some very light precip visible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossthread Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Just outta curiosity, For KILM.... It's Forecasted the 850(s) freezing line roughly from Florence/ (Whiteville) Dillion/Lumberton I-95 corridor, BEFORE, ALONG THIS LINE ,,, making a SHARP *RIGHT**,,, (Lumberton/FayettNam/Benzon?) sharp se right, SouthEast ward, Towards Topsail~Morehead City and the *DownEast Sections of SE NC....... Possibly 850's make a run towards KILM/MB/OIB/Murells inlet area(s) down this way... WE ARE with-in "spitting Distance" What a Forecast, I feel for ya'll Mets out there ATM... Our local NWS... Short term /6 am Tuesday morning through Wednesday night/...as of 3 PM Monday...an extremely difficult forecast is unfoldingfor the Tuesday-Wednesday time period. A stalled front acrossnorthern Florida will develop several areas of low pressure inresponse to three discrete upper level disturbances passing acrossthe area. This will result in a extended period of wintry weatherincluding the potential for a very damaging ice storm acrossportions of eastern South Carolina...and large accumulations ofsnow and sleet across interior southeastern North Carolina.The first disturbance will spread an area of mainly low-levelisentropic lift across the area Tuesday morning. This will lead tomixed precipitation as a weak warm nose between 800-850 mbpartially melts falling snow into rain...but only a marginallycool/dry layer below the warm nose exists to refreezehydrometers. Surface air temperatures initially above freezingmay begin to slide during the afternoon as evaporational coolingstrengthens...but it would be appear most of this first wave ofprecipitation should lead to little significant accumulation south of aline from Darlington to Dillon...Lumberton...Elizabethtown andBurgaw. Across this northern tier upwards of 1.0 to 1.5 inches ofsnow mixed with sleet could accumulate by evening.Tuesday night we will actually be in a lull between upperdisturbances and could lose saturation within the criticaldendritic growth zone aloft for much of the night. This will leadto much lighter precipitation amounts and a transition over tolight rain/freezing rain. Then before daybreak Wednesday the nextupper disturbance will arrive with deep moisture and liftreturning. Look for widespread light to moderate sleet/freezingrain across the area Wednesday...capped off with snow during themorning hours north of Florence and Whiteville.Freezing rain accumulations across the Pee Dee region of easternSouth Carolina could become extreme during the day Wednesday withupwards of three-quarters of an inch of ice possibly accumulatingon elevated surfaces. The impacts to electrical infrastructure andtrees could be significant...and residents need to prepare for thepotential of extended power outages.In terms of model preferences...it is interesting how similar the12z NAM...GFS...Canadian models were with their track for thesurface low up the coast Wednesday night. Given this similarity itis odd that there is so much variation with the magnitude of thewarm nose aloft and subsequent precipitation types. The NAM is byfar the coldest model for the eastern Carolinas...due in part tothe fact it brings such dry air below 900 mb into the equation...lockingin a very cold airmass all the way down to the coast Tuesday nightinto Wednesday. The GFS and especially the Canadian are muchwarmer in the 850-1000 mb layer...up to a 6 degree c differencecompared to the NAM. Given the similarity in surface low positionthis forecast incorporates a blend of the NAM/GFS...with latermodel runs hopefully shedding light onto this difficult forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguysc Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 34.9 North of Gaffney near SC/NC line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Please say this is sarcastic? The thing hasn't even started yet? Really man. C'mon. 37 here I know right? Nothing has changed, not sure where the bust talk came from. I have been skeptical from the getgo about accumulating snow in Atlanta proper during this first wave unless you're way up in the northern burbs. Looks like a wait and see for areas like Cumming, Buford, Kennesaw, etc. Please dont feed the trolls. 39.6° Overcast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Curious if any of these brighter echos have flakes mixed in........anyone up toward the Rome/Cartersville area seeing anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 my 4th time attempting to post in the obs. thread I have light snow falling in Oconee!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 my 4th time attempting to post in the obs. thread I have light snow falling in Oconee!! sweet! whats your temp? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 my 4th time attempting to post in the obs. thread I have light snow falling in Oconee!! Congrats, hopefully a sign of things to come! What is your temp? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 sweet! whats your temp? sitting at 38 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 sitting at 38 thanks - send it down this way lol - seems like the wind has picked up the last couple of hours, so hopefully things are starting to get going. radar looks decent at this point in alabama Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Fayetteville NC....35*, light rain/drizzle. Anyone know if, with these latest trends, we here in the Sandhills stand a better chance at more snow? Or is it still looking like mostly ice and rain, with little snow? Also, I'm curious as to why it is 38 in GA and snowing, but 35 in NC and raining. -_- Reminds me of the last system on 1-28 when it was 23* and sleeting for 4 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Fayetteville NC....35*, light rain/drizzle. Anyone know if, with these latest trends, we here in the Sandhills stand a better chance at more snow? Or is it still looking like mostly ice and rain, with little snow? Also, I'm curious as to why it is 38 in GA and snowing, but 35 in NC and raining. -_- Reminds me of the last system on 1-28 when it was 23* and sleeting for 4 hours... Upper atmosphere magic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Upper atmosphere magic. That upper atmosphere magic shiz need to chill before I bust a cap on its azz. Aha. Do I sound like I'm from Fayetteville yet? Anywas...still 35, wet outside but not precipitating. Bout to turn in for the night....tomorrow's (er...8 hour away) class hasn't been cancelled yet, so meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Big flakes reported in Cullman, AL. Sleet in Paulding county GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NE Cherokee County Ga- 34.7 and light rain started about 20 minutes or so ago. Forecast low for the night was 35 so will be interesting to see how much more it falls. We are usually several degrees below forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Just for fun I decided to take a look at the RAP. Actually looks pretty impressive for the upstate. I'm sure it's overdone but still.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 After staying stuck in the 38-39 range for 4 hours, my temp. here in Dunwoody on the northside of Atlanta (yes, I drove from Savannah late yesterday due to a dental appointment today although I might have done it without the dental appointment lol) has finally dropped some to 37.6 as steady rain finally got started. 850's are now dropping as the rain increases. I must say that the radars look pretty impressive. I'm expecting largely an isothermal setup as long as there is steady and decent intensity precip. So, if the precip. continues at a decent pace and IF 850's can go down to ~0C to +0.5Cas per the Euro, Dunwoody could get very close to 32-33 by 7-9 AM. Now, if the Euro is too cold at 850 and they bottom out at , say 1 C, then the lowest would probably only get down to 34-5ish imo. Let's see what happens overnight. Suddenly dropped to 37.0 and now 36.7 at 1:20 AM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 After staying stuck in the 38-39 range for 4 hours, my temp. here in Dunwoody on the northside of Atlanta (yes, I drove from Savannah late yesterday due to a dental appointment today although I might have done it without the dental appointment lol) has finally dropped some to 37.6 as steady rain finally got started. 850's are now dropping as the rain increases. I must say that the radars look pretty impressive. I'm expecting largely an isothermal setup as long as there is steady and decent intensity precip. So, if the precip. continues at a decent pace and IF 850's can go down to ~0C to +0.5Cas per the Euro, Dunwoody could get very close to 32-33 by 7-9 AM. Now, if the Euro is too cold at 850 and they bottom out at , say 1 C, then the lowest would probably only get down to 34-5ish imo. Let's see what happens overnight. Suddenly dropped to 37.0! Man it's good to have you back for this. It's sort of sucked having you down in savannah. Temp finally has dropped to 39 here after the rain started... after being stuck in the 40s. The last 2 model runs have warmed ever so slightly here that the rain/snow line literally could be 5 miles north of me or south of me. (it only moved 10 to at most 20 miles north vs earlier runs). I mean it literally could not be any closer. I'm not sure what to expect to be honest as a huge portion of the column cools to 0c to 0.1/0.2c on the nam/rap. (gfs is warmest and probably would be rain until the end) I don't think i've ever seen precipitation with a sounding like what is being shown so I have no idea if I should be expecting a mix, a cold rain, sleet, snow or what. My luck it will be a cold rain...especially since the radar looks really good. This first system has been pretty much overlooked despite the models putting down 0.4 to 0.60 liquid..that is a good 2 to 4 inch snowfall in some locals imo and would be a big story any other time but you hardly see anyone talking about it. It's crazy. Plus given these marginal temps I bet the flakes are huge. I sure hope I don't miss out on it but i might...by 5 miles..ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Man it's good to have you back for this. It's sort of sucked having you down in savannah. Temp finally has dropped to 39 here after the rain started... after being stuck in the 40s. The last 2 model runs have warmed ever so slightly here that the rain/snow line literally could be 5 miles north of me or south of me. (it only moved 10 to at most 20 miles north vs earlier runs). I mean it literally could not be any closer. I'm not sure what to expect to be honest as a huge portion of the column cools to 0c to 0.1/0.2c on the nam/rap. (gfs is warmest and probably would be rain until the end) I don't think i've ever seen precipitation with a sounding like what is being shown so I have no idea if I should be expecting a mix, a cold rain, sleet, snow or what. My luck it will be a cold rain...especially since the radar looks really good. This first system has been pretty much overlooked despite the models putting down 0.4 to 0.60 liquid..that is a good 2 to 4 inch snowfall in some locals imo and would be a big story any other time but you hardly see anyone talking about it. It's crazy. Plus given these marginal temps I bet the flakes are huge. I sure hope I don't miss out on it but i might...by 5 miles..ugh. Thanks, Chris. Still 36.7 at 1:55 AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 33/21 OV. The dew point is plummeting as N winds kick in, bringing in colder, drier air. My Td dropped 9 degrees Fahrenheit in the last hour! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 34.5 here just SW of Kennesaw. Just woke up from a little 2.5 hour nap to check in and see where we were. Anybody in North Georgia have any sleet yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Hey Lookout or Buckeye, is there a way y'all can turn on the locations for posters or is this not do able? Its going to get difficult tomorrow and Wednesday to identify were people are from when they post OBS'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 A few wet flakes mixed in during a band of increased rates about 15 minutes ago. Temp down to 33.6! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Temps are way to warm for most to get anything from this first fetch of moisture. Hope the temps this evening are not hard to come by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguysc Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 33.3 IMBY North of Gaffney, SC about 2 miles from the SC/NC line right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 It could be close to a mix here or it's doing it at times..rain sounds "sloppy" like before a changeover. I haven't stood outside long enough to see it and the precip is pretty light at the moment. Down to 36 with winds pretty strong out of the northeast. just east of here over in greenwood it's already snowing...where the boundary layer is colder thanks to our developing wedge. So it appears all that is left to cool off here is the boundary layer. Models show that happening in the next few hours so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Lots of flakes mixing in now! It's a shame it wasn't cold enough for all snow from the get go. This system is juicy! 33.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Wet flakes falling here now. 36 degrees 32 Dewpoint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hartweather Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 A few flakes mixing with rain... very light!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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