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The Big One - Observation

JoshM

By JoshM,
in Southeastern States

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audioguy3107

audioguy3107

Posted
Posted

Please say this is sarcastic? The thing hasn't even started yet? Really man. C'mon. 37 here

I know right? Nothing has changed, not sure where the bust talk came from. I have been skeptical from the getgo about accumulating snow in Atlanta proper during this first wave unless you're way up in the northern burbs. Looks like a wait and see for areas like Cumming, Buford, Kennesaw, etc.

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crossthread

crossthread

Posted
Posted

Just outta curiosity, For KILM....

It's Forecasted the 850(s) freezing line roughly from Florence/ (Whiteville)  Dillion/Lumberton I-95 corridor, BEFORE, ALONG THIS LINE ,,, making a SHARP *RIGHT**,,, (Lumberton/FayettNam/Benzon?) sharp se right,      SouthEast ward, Towards Topsail~Morehead City and the *DownEast Sections of SE NC.......

 

 

 

Possibly 850's make a run towards KILM/MB/OIB/Murells  inlet area(s) down this way... WE ARE with-in "spitting Distance"

 

What a Forecast, I feel for ya'll Mets out there ATM...

Our local NWS...

 

Short term /6 am Tuesday morning through Wednesday night/...
as of 3 PM Monday...an extremely difficult forecast is unfolding
for the Tuesday-Wednesday time period. A stalled front across
northern Florida will develop several areas of low pressure in
response to three discrete upper level disturbances passing across
the area. This will result in a extended period of wintry weather
including the potential for a very damaging ice storm across
portions of eastern South Carolina...and large accumulations of
snow and sleet across interior southeastern North Carolina.

The first disturbance will spread an area of mainly low-level
isentropic lift across the area Tuesday morning. This will lead to
mixed precipitation as a weak warm nose between 800-850 mb
partially melts falling snow into rain...but only a marginally
cool/dry layer below the warm nose exists to refreeze
hydrometers. Surface air temperatures initially above freezing
may begin to slide during the afternoon as evaporational cooling
strengthens...but it would be appear most of this first wave of
precipitation should lead to little significant accumulation south of a
line from Darlington to Dillon...Lumberton...Elizabethtown and
Burgaw. Across this northern tier upwards of 1.0 to 1.5 inches of
snow mixed with sleet could accumulate by evening.

Tuesday night we will actually be in a lull between upper
disturbances and could lose saturation within the critical
dendritic growth zone aloft for much of the night. This will lead
to much lighter precipitation amounts and a transition over to
light rain/freezing rain. Then before daybreak Wednesday the next
upper disturbance will arrive with deep moisture and lift
returning. Look for widespread light to moderate sleet/freezing
rain across the area Wednesday...capped off with snow during the
morning hours north of Florence and Whiteville.

Freezing rain accumulations across the Pee Dee region of eastern
South Carolina could become extreme during the day Wednesday with
upwards of three-quarters of an inch of ice possibly accumulating
on elevated surfaces. The impacts to electrical infrastructure and
trees could be significant...and residents need to prepare for the
potential of extended power outages.

In terms of model preferences...it is interesting how similar the
12z NAM...GFS...Canadian models were with their track for the
surface low up the coast Wednesday night. Given this similarity it
is odd that there is so much variation with the magnitude of the
warm nose aloft and subsequent precipitation types. The NAM is by
far the coldest model for the eastern Carolinas...due in part to
the fact it brings such dry air below 900 mb into the equation...locking
in a very cold airmass all the way down to the coast Tuesday night
into Wednesday. The GFS and especially the Canadian are much
warmer in the 850-1000 mb layer...up to a 6 degree c difference
compared to the NAM. Given the similarity in surface low position
this forecast incorporates a blend of the NAM/GFS...with later
model runs hopefully shedding light onto this difficult forecast.
 

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Thrasher Fan

Thrasher Fan

Posted
Posted

Please say this is sarcastic? The thing hasn't even started yet? Really man. C'mon. 37 here

 

 

I know right? Nothing has changed, not sure where the bust talk came from. I have been skeptical from the getgo about accumulating snow in Atlanta proper during this first wave unless you're way up in the northern burbs. Looks like a wait and see for areas like Cumming, Buford, Kennesaw, etc.

 

Please dont feed the trolls.

 

 

39.6°   Overcast

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NCsandhills

NCsandhills

Posted
Posted

Fayetteville NC....35*, light rain/drizzle. Anyone know if, with these latest trends, we here in the Sandhills stand a better chance at more snow? Or is it still looking like mostly ice and rain, with little snow?

 

Also, I'm curious as to why it is 38 in GA and snowing, but 35 in NC and raining. -_- 

Reminds me of the last system on 1-28 when it was 23* and sleeting for 4 hours...

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Thrasher Fan

Thrasher Fan

Posted
Posted

Fayetteville NC....35*, light rain/drizzle. Anyone know if, with these latest trends, we here in the Sandhills stand a better chance at more snow? Or is it still looking like mostly ice and rain, with little snow?

 

Also, I'm curious as to why it is 38 in GA and snowing, but 35 in NC and raining. -_- 

Reminds me of the last system on 1-28 when it was 23* and sleeting for 4 hours...

 

Upper atmosphere magic. :)

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NCsandhills

NCsandhills

Posted
Posted

Upper atmosphere magic. :)

That upper atmosphere magic shiz need to chill before I bust a cap on its azz. Aha. Do I sound like I'm from Fayetteville yet? :P

 

Anywas...still 35, wet outside but not precipitating. Bout to turn in for the night....tomorrow's (er...8 hour away) class hasn't been cancelled yet, so meh.

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

 After staying stuck in the 38-39 range for 4 hours, my temp. here in Dunwoody on the northside of Atlanta (yes, I drove from Savannah late yesterday due to a dental appointment today although I might have done it without the dental appointment lol) has finally dropped some to 37.6 as steady rain finally got started. 850's are now dropping as the rain increases. I must say that the radars look pretty impressive. I'm expecting largely an isothermal setup as long as there is steady and decent intensity precip. So, if the precip. continues at a decent pace and IF 850's can go down to ~0C to +0.5Cas per the Euro, Dunwoody could get very close to 32-33 by 7-9 AM. Now, if the Euro is too cold at 850 and they bottom out at , say 1 C, then the lowest would probably only get down to 34-5ish imo. Let's see what happens overnight.

 

Suddenly dropped to 37.0 and now 36.7 at 1:20 AM!

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Lookout

Lookout

Posted
Posted

 After staying stuck in the 38-39 range for 4 hours, my temp. here in Dunwoody on the northside of Atlanta (yes, I drove from Savannah late yesterday due to a dental appointment today although I might have done it without the dental appointment lol) has finally dropped some to 37.6 as steady rain finally got started. 850's are now dropping as the rain increases. I must say that the radars look pretty impressive. I'm expecting largely an isothermal setup as long as there is steady and decent intensity precip. So, if the precip. continues at a decent pace and IF 850's can go down to ~0C to +0.5Cas per the Euro, Dunwoody could get very close to 32-33 by 7-9 AM. Now, if the Euro is too cold at 850 and they bottom out at , say 1 C, then the lowest would probably only get down to 34-5ish imo. Let's see what happens overnight.

 

Suddenly dropped to 37.0!

Man it's good to have you back for this. It's sort of sucked having you down in savannah.

 

Temp finally has dropped to 39 here after the rain started... after being stuck in the 40s. The last 2 model runs have warmed ever so slightly here that the rain/snow line literally could be 5 miles north of me or south of me. (it only moved 10 to at most 20 miles north vs earlier runs).  I mean it literally could not be any closer. I'm not sure what to expect to be honest as a huge portion of the column cools to 0c to 0.1/0.2c on the nam/rap. (gfs is warmest and probably would be rain until the end)  I don't think i've ever seen precipitation with a sounding like what is being shown so I have no idea if I should be expecting a mix, a cold rain, sleet, snow or what. My luck it will be a cold rain...especially since the radar looks really good.

 

This first system has been pretty much overlooked despite the models putting down 0.4 to 0.60 liquid..that is a good 2 to 4 inch  snowfall in some locals imo and would be a big story any other time but you hardly see anyone talking about it. It's crazy.

 

Plus given these marginal temps I bet the flakes are huge. I sure hope I don't miss out on it but i might...by 5 miles..ugh.

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

Man it's good to have you back for this. It's sort of sucked having you down in savannah.

 

Temp finally has dropped to 39 here after the rain started... after being stuck in the 40s. The last 2 model runs have warmed ever so slightly here that the rain/snow line literally could be 5 miles north of me or south of me. (it only moved 10 to at most 20 miles north vs earlier runs).  I mean it literally could not be any closer. I'm not sure what to expect to be honest as a huge portion of the column cools to 0c to 0.1/0.2c on the nam/rap. (gfs is warmest and probably would be rain until the end)  I don't think i've ever seen precipitation with a sounding like what is being shown so I have no idea if I should be expecting a mix, a cold rain, sleet, snow or what. My luck it will be a cold rain...especially since the radar looks really good.

 

This first system has been pretty much overlooked despite the models putting down 0.4 to 0.60 liquid..that is a good 2 to 4 inch  snowfall in some locals imo and would be a big story any other time but you hardly see anyone talking about it. It's crazy.

 

Plus given these marginal temps I bet the flakes are huge. I sure hope I don't miss out on it but i might...by 5 miles..ugh.

 

Thanks, Chris. Still 36.7 at 1:55 AM.

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Lookout

Lookout

Posted
Posted

It could be close to a mix here or it's doing it at times..rain sounds "sloppy" like before a changeover. I haven't stood outside long enough to see it and the precip is pretty light at the moment. Down to 36 with winds pretty strong out of the northeast.

 

just east of here over in greenwood it's already snowing...where the boundary layer is colder thanks to our developing wedge.  So it appears all that is left to cool off here is the boundary layer. Models show that happening in the next few hours so we'll see.

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