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The Big One - Observation


JoshM

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@30??? No way that happens. We never have a system slow down when it is headed to DC.......ever! This system will accelerate NE and be hanging out with the Bostonians @30. Somebody will have to splain to me how I will be getting 30 straight hours of snowfall in the triad.

 

The main storm will zoom up the coast...correct.  It's the upper level system crossing the region overnight into tomorrow continuing the snow....

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Yep my gut's telling me we're busting a bit up here.

 

On the one hand, I'm glad that if this is overall less severe than forecast in ATL/NGa, there won't be as much damage, fewer/shorter outages, etc.  That's really good for people.

 

On the other hand, with the NWS and media still using words like "catastrophic" etc., should this really bust like it appears it may be in process of doing, it's frustrating, and not because I'm pouting about not getting the precip.  It's because next time, business owners and officials will be less likely to pay attention and let people stay home.

There is supposed to be some redevelopment..i just find it hard to picture it being enough to even get me close to those extreme amounts that were earlier forecast. 

 

Right now I have some odd precipitation that is so heavy it's actually reducing visibility. It's sort of like drizzle except it's frozen. There is a ton of it though...so much so it looks really foggy.. but it's only because of that precip. It's actually accumulating at a decent rate amazingly.

 

I wish I could get into that deformation zone. Looked good on earlier runs but not so much anymore. Par for the course this season. To be honest, nothing has really gone well for me with either of these two system (nor our other snow several weeks back). Keep finding ways to get screwed after what looked like very promising events. Although I am happy with the snow I got today..just wish i had gotten a lot more after the last two screwjobs..including the one yesterday where I was missed by literally just a few miles. I've never missed getting snow by such a tiny little difference. I know it has to happen to someone, someplace, and sometimes but for it to happen like that..well that blows big ones.

 

 

edit to add..wow it's gotten even whiter outside. It looks like a super duper thick  mist but it's frozen. I'm sure it's pretty common to folks up north or something but I don't think I've ever seen anything quite like this. Visibilities are down to less than 1/8th of a mile with it...maybe even 1/16th.

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The main storm will zoom up the coast...correct.  It's the upper level system crossing the region overnight into tomorrow continuing the snow....

 

Hi, the triad folks on here would love to hear your analysis/predictions.  Looks to me like the 12z models look a little more snowy and a shorter period of sleet/freezing rain due to a track just inside of Hatteras vs last night's runs.  What are your opinions if you have time to answer?  Thanks! 

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Burg, Casey the GFS has finally caught on with that band and subsequent snow totals thru 33 it only took for the event to be underway but nonetheless ;). Burg I'm really pulling for you man you guys deserve a good one down there. Keep me posted!

 

Thanks. This certainly looks like the big one and I like the trends. I am less worried about sleet mixing in here. I'll certainly give you updates throughout the day. 

 

:snowing:

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My feeling is that ATL area has received about as much liquid equivalent precip as model consensus had to this point and vast majority wintry. It looks like better part of inch so far in/near city and still about another 0.70" to go per 0Z Euro. Too much negativity as per usual/human nature. Be happy ATL north didn't get widespread outages. I sure am happy about that and am satisfied so far plus possibility of 2-4" snow later with deformation is comforting. :) We'll see if verifies.

Edit: although total liquid seems about right, there's less IP than I expected because some lost to R/ZR. But total liquid about right IMO and this lull looks about right to me.

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There is supposed to be some redevelopment..i just find it hard to picture it being enough to even get me close to those extreme amounts that were earlier forecast. 

 

Right now I have some odd precipitation that is so heavy it's actually reducing visibility. It's sort of like drizzle except it's frozen. There is a ton of it though...so much so it looks really foggy.. but it's only because of that precip. It's actually accumulating at a decent rate amazingly.

 

I wish I could get into that deformation zone. Looked good on earlier runs but not so much anymore. Par for the course this season. To be honest, nothing has really gone well for me with either of these two system (nor our other snow several weeks back). Keep finding ways to get screwed after what looked like very promising events. Although I am happy with the snow I got today..just wish i had gotten a lot more after the last two screwjobs..including the one yesterday where I was missed by literally just a few miles. I've never missed getting snow by such a tiny little difference. I know it has to happen to someone, someplace, and sometimes but for it to happen like that..well that blows big ones.

 

 

edit to add..wow it's gotten even whiter outside. It looks like a super duper thick  mist but it's frozen. I'm sure it's pretty common to folks up north or something but I don't think I've ever seen anything quite like this. Visibilities are down to less than 1/8th of a mile with it...maybe even 1/16th.

 

We've got a fine mist also; not near like what you have.

 

I'll believe it's going to snow when it actually starts to fall which is hard to fathom at this time; Phil's been spot on though so holding out hope.  Would've liked to see his forecast at the beginning to save some pain. 

 

Wifey still won't tell me where the knives are...

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