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The Big One - Observation


JoshM

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I've been worrying about that for days and had a bad feeling it could negatively effect those downstream. I know for almost certainty I'm not going to pick up nearly as much as the models have been showing. Pretty much every model gave me 2 inches or more. I've had about 0.45 to 0.50 i'm guessing  so far and it's extremely hard to believe i pick up anything close to 1.5 for the rest of the system. In fact most of the total precip was supposed to fall by 18z today. .  If I manage 0.80 by tonight, that would normally be a good total for a winter event. But that pales in comparison to the 2, 2.5, and even close to 3 inches the models have been given my location for days. One can only assume that the convection has played a role, as I feared it might.

 

Maybe some of us can make up for some lost ground with the deformation axis but I'm not sure it will even come far enough south to give me anything more than a flurry. Would be a disappointing storm if it under performs this much for my location. Although  I am happy about not getting destructive ice. ..which for a while last night I seriously began to think that was going to be the case when the best i could get going was a rain/freezing rain/sleet mix.

 

Maybe it will redevelop and fill in though..Will be interesting to see how the rest of the storm goes and for the rest of you too.

 

Yep my gut's telling me we're busting a bit up here.

 

On the one hand, I'm glad that if this is overall less severe than forecast in ATL/NGa, there won't be as much damage, fewer/shorter outages, etc.  That's really good for people.

 

On the other hand, with the NWS and media still using words like "catastrophic" etc., should this really bust like it appears it may be in process of doing, it's frustrating, and not because I'm pouting about not getting the precip.  It's because next time, business owners and officials will be less likely to pay attention and let people stay home.

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.25" of ice here, Significant amounts of tree branches snapping off, power still on here but power has been going out in many areas. This is already far worse than the 1/29 event.

It's 97,000 now on GA power which is remarkable given the light precip rates it might be 250,000 already with heavy FZRA.

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It's 97,000 now on GA power which is remarkable given the light precip rates it might be 250,000 already with heavy FZRA.

 

It's not too remarkable when two things are considered - we have a lot of soft wood trees here generally speaking, and it doesn't take much to hurt them; and, more importantly, we haven't had any icing in years so they haven't been "pruned" by mother nature in quite some time.  There's definitely some low hanging fruit, so to speak.

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the heavier returns moving into ne are actually a combination of snow, sleet and freezing rain imby right now lol. temp 21

 

went ahead and took some measurements, which ranged from 7.5" up to 9" thinking that yesterdays snow was 4.5" when it stopped, and about 4" in the evening. 

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Deform band really gets cranking @30 up central NC. Totals are going to be crazy on the GFS.

@30??? No way that happens. We never have a system slow down when it is headed to DC.......ever! This system will accelerate NE and be hanging out with the Bostonians @30. Somebody will have to splain to me how I will be getting 30 straight hours of snowfall in the triad.

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Over an inch of liquid since midnight, but temperature fall was delayed; just now reached 31 here in Newnan.  Very little icing apparent even in trees...most rain fell with temp 32.5 to 35.  Much greater ice just too my east and north with numerous friends reporting power outages (Fayette/ So Fulton/ Douglas/ Paulding counties).  Current temp is 31.1...the low for the day.  Rainfall since midnight 1.02".

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GFS is sweet for north GA folks!!!  

thats for sure (so is the rap). shows some sleet and freezing rain and then back to snow. if the deform band sets up we are in big time rate business :)

 

grew up in ga and am well used to mixing, besides i am one of the weirdos who doesnt mind ice lol  so snow to ice to snow, possible heavy, is fine by me :snowman:

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Moderate-heavy snow falling in Fay. Already a half inch on my car (which i cleared off completely this morning on my way to food lion). should be an interesting day. roads are already turning white. i'm nervous, because at 3PM i have to drive my girlfriend to work...and pick her up at midnight. going to drive 10mph. lol.

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