Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,607
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

The Big One - Observation


JoshM

Recommended Posts

Had 32 deg & heavy IP at midnight. Continued until 7AM when snow started.  Snow stopped about 9AM and temp has dropped to 27 deg. About 1" of sleet on ground and maybe .75" of snow on top.  Wind gusts to 20mph or so, but looks like this will be a bust for me.  Radar looks pretty clear.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 3k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Guys, look west... More rain out that way for us in Alabama and Georgia. This was expected for us in Columbus, but it's a little drier than thought. We'll see things pick up before things are through.

Exactly!  I didn't expect the dry slot as much either...BUT models do regenerate qpf once that sfc low starts to kick in.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We're sitting at 33 with light rain.  Radar estimates show 1-1.5" of rain has fallen so far so we're fortunate that the temperature has stayed above freezing.  The closest 32 degree reading is showing up in Macon.  The 32 degree wetbulb line is scheduled to continue its southwestward march, so any precip that comes in this afternoon could be of the frozen variety.  

 

The revised NWS forecast is giving us a chance for up to .20 accumulation for ice with the greater chances as you go north towards Macon and northeast towards Interstate 16.

 

With this lull coming up in the precip, I'm curious to see how that will affect our temperatures. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just off 78 4 miles east of the city. 

 

Walked outside to make sure the pool pump was running, and observed only light zr 20 minutes or so ago.  Has been primarily sleet for most of the night though. 

Cool well sounds like we have a good spread across this area as we can see basically what is occurring on either side.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Phil, can you give me the link for the correlation coefficient radar site?  I looked around a bit at that nextlab website but couldn't find the type of radar you are using.  I'm looking to see if they have it for the Raleigh station and others.  Thanks!

 

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=GSP-N0C-0-6

 

College of Du Page really has some top rate graphics.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Around 3:30am the rain/sleet/ZR mixture started falling for real. I went to bed.

 

Woke up at 9:30 to a thin layer of ice on everything.  The smaller pine trees are already drooping.  The taller ones are swaying in the breeze.

 

We've had a couple of power blips, enough to reset the appliance clocks.

 

No precip at this time.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

 

Nice Greg,

 

Looks decent for GVL too,  We might have shot at 5 to 6 inches

 

Still possible for sure! It encourages me to see the SREF printing out good snow for NE AL still as well (a little wiggle room). WAA kicked my ass here until about 7am. Missed a lot of good stuff in that first batch this morning. Ended up with at least half an inch of ZR/IP.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Those in GA. Just talked to Robert he said the lull is due to the convection robbing moisture. Big wild card in this. 

I've been worrying about that for days and had a bad feeling it could negatively effect those downstream. I know for almost certainty I'm not going to pick up nearly as much as the models have been showing. Pretty much every model gave me 2 inches or more. I've had about 0.45 to 0.50 i'm guessing  so far and it's extremely hard to believe i pick up anything close to 1.5 for the rest of the system. In fact most of the total precip was supposed to fall by 18z today. .  If I manage 0.80 by tonight, that would normally be a good total for a winter event. But that pales in comparison to the 2, 2.5, and even close to 3 inches the models have been given my location for days. One can only assume that the convection has played a role, as I feared it might.

 

Maybe some of us can make up for some lost ground with the deformation axis but I'm not sure it will even come far enough south to give me anything more than a flurry. Would be a disappointing storm if it under performs this much for my location. Although  I am happy about not getting destructive ice. ..which for a while last night I seriously began to think that was going to be the case when the best i could get going was a rain/freezing rain/sleet mix.

 

Maybe it will redevelop and fill in though..Will be interesting to see how the rest of the storm goes and for the rest of you too.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's robbing moisture with that orientation (SW to NE)? That feature has been modeled well I thought?

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/news/hrrr_current_se.gif

 

The early frames of the HRRR show the scattered precip for this area and then filling in later.

I admit im worried up here because I've seen this story before. But this is modeled to play out this way and has been so I hesitate to meltdown and listen to the voices of reason!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

My exact thought too, the orientation actually looks good to me. Legit -SN here, just TINY flakes

 

This looks great to me... That slug of convective precip will stall and move up the E half of NC while precip fills in west of it as the coastal revvs up.  Near exactly as modeled.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...