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The Big One - Observation


JoshM

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Do you have any reason to believe we might go back to ZR for a little while? It's mentioned in my forecast so I'm curious to hear your opinion.

I suppose it is possible if precip. gets much lighter. But overall I have no reason to not think that the majority continues as sleet for a good number of hours to come. I'm still thinking we will end up with a nice IP accumulation before the snow toward the end. I was so happy to see the sleet when I awoke because it was still ZR when I had gone to sleep.

Edit: 29.1, about coldest yet

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29 degrees Dew pt 27

 Similar conditions as Larry.

  
Look forward to seeing the snowflakes fly tonight!   Do we have any new data showing how high the winds will be? 

 

Totally respect all of you who have contributed over the last several day on this storm, and for the entire winter season! You seriously are awesome! 

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Apparently KATL is reporting 0.27" of ZR to this point. Seems like they are right on the ZR/IP line, then.

I'm 2 miles N of KATL and I think I've seen a bit less than that....but there are lots of power outages just to my south which would support some higher accumulations. I've been mostly sleet since about 6 AM.

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mcd0089.gif

 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0089   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   0744 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH/CENTRAL GA AND SC/WESTERN NC   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION    VALID 121344Z - 121815Z   SUMMARY...A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY ACROSS   PARTS OF GA/CAROLINAS THIS MORNING. CONSIDERABLE ICE ACCUMULATIONS   ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO OCCUR ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL GA   INTO THE PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN OF SC...WHILE AT LEAST MODERATE SNOW   WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY COMMON IN UPSTATE AREAS AND NEAR THE   APPALACHIANS.   DISCUSSION...IN GENERAL ASSOCIATION WITH AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE   TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY...EARLY MORNING SATELLITE/RADAR   IMAGERY INDICATE AN EVOLVING BAROCLINIC LEAF STRUCTURE AND EXTENSIVE   MID-HIGH CLOUD/PRECIPITATION SHIELD FROM PARTS OF AL/GA INTO THE   CAROLINAS. THIS PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN/NORTH OF A STRENGTHENING   LOW-LEVEL JET/WARM CONVEYOR IMPLIED PER WSR-88D VWP/12Z RAOB DATA.   AS SIGNIFICANT UVV/S OVERSPREAD THE REGION...COLD AIR DAMMING WILL   CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT WINTER PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING   ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN GA INTO THE CAROLINAS. AS A ROUGH   SOUTHERN DEMARCATION OF THE MOST IMPACTFUL ICE/SNOW THIS   MORNING...THE SURFACE WET BULB 32F LINE AS OF 13Z CONTINUES TO MAKE   A SLOW/STEADY SOUTHWARD ADVANCEMENT /APPROX 25 MILE CHANGE PER HR/.   AT 13Z...THE 32F WET BULB LINE EXTENDS FROM W/SW OF THE ATLANTA   METRO AREA...SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL GA...PARALLELING   I-16 TO NEAR MACON/STATESBORO GA TO NEAR-IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS OF   THE CAROLINAS.   THE 12Z OBSERVED /PARTIAL/ SOUNDING FROM ATLANTA GA SAMPLED A WARM   LAYER AROUND 850 MB/1200 M AGL CONDUCIVE FOR FULL/PARTIAL MELTING   ATOP A SUB-FREEZING /AROUND -4C AT 500 M/ NEAR-SURFACE LAYER. THIS   SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN/SOME SLEET WITHIN A   CORRIDOR ACROSS NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL GA INCLUDING   I-20 INTO THE PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN OF SC. THE 12Z OBSERVED   SOUNDING FROM CHARLESTON SC FEATURED A FULL-MELTING CONDUCIVE LAYER   BASED AROUND 500 M ATOP A VERY SHALLOW NEAR/SUB-FREEZING LAYER.   TO THE NORTH...SNOW /WITH SOME SLEET MIXED IN/ SHOULD GRADUALLY   INCREASE THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH AT LEAST   MODERATE SNOW BECOMING MORE COMMON PARTICULARLY ACROSS EXTREME   NORTHEAST GA/FAR NORTHERN SC INTO NC INCLUDING THE I-85 CORRIDOR.   GIVEN INCREASING SATURATION/UVV AND A RELATIVELY FAVORABLE DENDRITIC   GROWTH PROFILE...LOCALIZED SNOW RATES COULD REACH 1 IN/HR BY LATE   MORNING.   ..GUYER.. 02/12/2014
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Snow just started here. Let's get this party started! 

 

Been looking out the window at my office all morning waiting to see the flakes.  boss made us come in because "we're not getting anything until this afternoon" according to her.  I'll be gone by luncch at the latest.  Bonus was my normally 30 minute commute took about 17 minutes this morning. 

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Snow just started here. Let's get this party started!

Awesome. Took a little while longer than I thought it would when I went to bed after the Euro last night. Dew point was 28 and wasn't thinking we'd get below 20 for it. 5 hours later I wake up and it had plummeted to 14! Should start any time now where I am to your nw.

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I have had steady sleet and gusty winds.  Would really like some snow on top of the sleet.  hoping to get some soon maybe.   At times radar looks like it should be snowing here but nothing other than sleet.  It is 27.5 here down a degree just 3 miles north of Loganville.

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So you've had about 2" of new snow today if I'm seeing that right? I've only got .75" here continuing with the miniscule sized flakes. Just not a lot of moisture up this way. Thankfully Phil eased my mind some!

i think that is accurate. i tried to measure a few places on the driveway and on top of the previous snow and came up with 1.75-2"

 

of course i have no idea of compaction and honestly at this point i have come to the conclusion unless we just get some heavy snow without the winds getting an accurate measurement just may not be possible today lmao

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