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The Big One - Observation


JoshM

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Check out this garbage. Here is the latest rap analysis for athens. The one below is the 3 hour forecast from the last run. :axe:

SFC  998   214   0.0  -1.5  89  1.6  -0.6  68   8 273.3 273.9 272.6 282.6  3.42
  2  950   608  -2.7  -2.8  99  0.1  -2.7  77  28 274.5 275.0 273.1 283.4  3.26
  3  900  1036  -2.3  -2.7  97  0.4  -2.4  86  33 279.2 279.8 276.1 288.9  3.48
  4  850  1492  -0.4  -0.5 100  0.0  -0.4 106  21 285.7 286.4 280.4 298.0  4.35
  5  800  1978   0.1   0.0  99  0.1   0.1 182  12 291.3 292.1 283.4 305.1  4.78
  6  750  2495  -0.6  -0.7  99  0.1  -0.6 231  19 295.9 296.8 285.4 310.2  4.85
  7  700  3045  -3.0  -3.2  98  0.2  -3.1 239  24 299.2 300.0 286.1 312.1  4.31
  8  650  3628  -6.0  -6.9  94  0.8  -6.4 245  28 302.1 302.8 286.4 312.9  3.51
  9  600  4252  -8.9 -10.2  90  1.3  -9.4 252  36 305.8 306.3 287.1 315.0  2.93
 10  550  4922 -12.3 -13.7  89  1.5 -12.8 250  51 309.5 310.0 287.8 317.2  2.40
 11  500  5645 -16.4 -18.0  87  1.6 -16.9 244  66 313.1 313.4 288.5 319.2  1.86
 12  450  6428 -21.6 -23.6  84  2.0 -22.1 244  74 316.1 316.3 288.8 320.3  1.26

Last runs 3 hour forecast..which it had been trying to show this for many runs in a row.

Date: 3 hour  valid 10Z WED 12 FEB 14
Station: KAHN
Latitude:   33.95
Longitude: -83.32
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  0 1000   188                                                                 
SFC  996   217  -0.2  -1.0  94  0.8  -0.6  58  11 273.2 273.8 272.8 282.8  3.56
  2  950   598  -3.3  -3.5  98  0.2  -3.4  63  32 273.9 274.4 272.5 282.3  3.10
  3  900  1025  -2.8  -3.1  98  0.3  -2.9  79  34 278.6 279.2 275.6 288.0  3.38
  4  850  1481  -0.1  -0.2  99  0.1  -0.1 109  19 286.1 286.9 280.7 298.7  4.44
  5  800  1967  -0.0  -0.2  99  0.1  -0.1 177   8 291.1 291.9 283.3 304.8  4.72
  6  750  2483  -0.7  -0.8  99  0.1  -0.8 236  12 295.8 296.7 285.3 309.9  4.80
  7  700  3033  -2.8  -3.0  98  0.2  -2.9 240  16 299.4 300.2 286.2 312.5  4.37
  8  650  3618  -5.6  -6.1  96  0.5  -5.8 239  22 302.7 303.4 286.8 314.1  3.74
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I'm in Fannin County Ga, right on the TN border. We expected this to start off with snow this far north, and that was the forecast, but right now we're getting a mix of both ice pellets and freezing rain, and it seems to be accumulating.

 

It was a little warmer here than a lot of other northern counties when it started for some reason, so I'm not sure if people in the surrounding counties are experiencing the same thing or not. The temp here has dropped a couple of degrees since it started. Hopefully we can get some snow in here eventually. 

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I've got 33 and moderate rain. No icing and only about 5 or 6 sleet pellets on the deck. This is busting big time on southwest side of town! We won't have a thing to worry with later this morning.

I don't believe the southwest side of atlanta was expected to get to freezing this soon. I certainly didn't expect it too until later this morning. Temps dropped quickly in town itself so it's coming i'm afraid.

 

It might be only temporary but there might be a southward push to the sleet/freezing rain/snow line from the gainesville area to just north of athens and over to hartwell.  at least it appears that way on the radar. in fact IF it keeps moving it could get here within an hour. Again could be temporary or I'm misreading it one. Will find out if it gets here (knocks on wood)

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I've got 33 and moderate rain. No icing and only about 5 or 6 sleet pellets on the deck. This is busting big time on southwest side of town! We won't have a thing to worry with later this morning.

 

It was not really supposed to get to you yet. The wedge is now just getting going.

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 Here in Dunwoody, down to 31.6 (lowest yet) and ZR now with thin ice buildup on above ground surfaces that I checked. Still no IP but I'm not giving up. I'm looking at those brighter returns to the WSW and hoping they will finally lead to a change to IP, but they seem to be diminishing as they approach the GA/AL line.

 

In Dunwoody, it is 31.5 at 4:25 AM. Although I saw a little bit of sleet on the railing, it is mainly still ZR though a good bit lighter for now, which may be a short term saving grace. Nevertheless, the trees have a pretty good glaze now and they sound icey when the winds blow.

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glad to see a lot of yall getting below freezing :thumbsup: the temp has dropped most in the last hour or so than i think it did all day. 26.3 with moderate snow

 

went out the front for a peek and the road is snow covered - and any and all slush is ice now (i know its not a blizzard but it sure does look and feel like one :snowman:

 

oops forgot to ask - is that radar thing showing the rain/snow line on an iphone app by any chance? or is it one of the modes? i have several radar programs and guess i could have it and just dont realize it

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I don't know who I was foolin' I can't sleep, I'm too wired.

 

I'm noticing a light glaze of icicles forming on the powerlines outside my house...Uh oh. :yikes: I can't tell if the same is occuring on the trees since it's too dark out. Also the winds continue to howl, gusts near 30 mph.

 

Weather station at the fire station a block away from my house says the temp is 29.3°F

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Light snow here with a dusting on the ground.

 

Phil has sort of ruined the storm for me at the moment, as I can’t help but sit here watching that C.C. Radar and agonize over the snow/sleet line creeping up.

 

 I was counting on a worst case scenario staying snow until 11am, now it looks like I could switch to sleet by maybe 9:00 or 10:00am.  

 

 

On the bright side, the snow/sleet line has held stationary for the last 40 minutes.

 

On the bad side, I can’t get decent enough rates to capitalize on it. :axe:

 

Oh well,

 

I told myself from the beginning that I would be happy with whatever fell knowing that at the very least it’s all frozen in some form or another.  I need to get back in that mind set. The NAM is still spitting out over 1.5 inches of frozen liquid here.  

 

 

Haha not trying to ruin the event for anyone... just trying to provide the tools that might help make better forecasts! There is going to be a fine line between those that have mixing issues (I-85 and southward) and those that stay all snow. The Blue Ridge stands the best chance to stay all snow, but the northernmost SC counties (Oconee, Pickens, Greenville, Spartanburg) on their northern edges should also stay mostly snow, even as the 850 hPa line creeps up. The CC radar product is just a really cool tool to be able to see where the line is in real time without having to rely on surface observations which only updating sparingly. 

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I don't know who I was foolin' I can't sleep, I'm too wired.

 

I'm noticing a light glaze of icicles forming on the powerlines outside my house...Uh oh. :yikes: I can't tell if the same is occuring on the trees since it's too dark out. Also the winds continue to howl, gusts near 30 mph.

Same here. I'm more awake now at 430am than I was at 130.

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It looks like the snow line might be trying to nudge back south... can anybody confirm?

 

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=GSP-N0C-1-6

 

Yea it looks like that nice 35-40 dbz band had high enough rates that it was able to overcome the weaker WAA taking place currently. Temporary southward push of the snow/sleet line... 

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I don't know who I was foolin' I can't sleep, I'm too wired.

 

I'm noticing a light glaze of icicles forming on the powerlines outside my house...Uh oh. :yikes: I can't tell if the same is occuring on the trees since it's too dark out. Also the winds continue to howl, gusts near 30 mph.

 

Weather station at the fire station a block away from my house says the temp is 29.3°F

 

What part of Atl are you in?

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Haha not trying to ruin the event for anyone... just trying to provide the tools that might help make better forecasts! There is going to be a fine line between those that have mixing issues (I-85 and southward) and those that stay all snow. The Blue Ridge stands the best chance to stay all snow, but the northernmost SC counties (Oconee, Pickens, Greenville, Spartanburg) on their northern edges should also stay mostly snow, even as the 850 hPa line creeps up. The CC radar product is just a really cool tool to be able to see where the line is in real time without having to rely on surface observations which only updating sparingly. 

lol,

 

I am just messing with you.  I appreciate all the information you’ve been giving us, and you are right, the CC radar is a pretty nice feature to watch. 

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I don't know who I was foolin' I can't sleep, I'm too wired.

 

I'm noticing a light glaze of icicles forming on the powerlines outside my house...Uh oh. :yikes: I can't tell if the same is occuring on the trees since it's too dark out. Also the winds continue to howl, gusts near 30 mph.

 

Weather station at the fire station a block away from my house says the temp is 29.3°F

Where exactly do you live in Atlanta?

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