Shawn Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0087 You beat me to the punch Shawn. Haha As I thought everything trended north temp wise by about 25-50 miles from guidance. This is not going to end up good imby or in KCAE. I'll tell you guys; I've never seen sleet and ZR so hard in my life.. accumulate.. and start turning the cement to ice. This is actually; not cool at all. This is just the beginning.. ... ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 HRRR doing good thus far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 NEGa, how wet is the snow you are experiencing? Is it sticking to everything or is it more dry and fluffy? its much drier than this morning. the winds are gusting to 14 mph now, and the snow from this morning is being blown off the roof. trees are swaying too lol its easy to tell whats falling and whats blowing, believe it or not. blowing snow is like dust, the flakes are nickel size. its pouring down. temp 27 dewpoints falling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I would have to say yes, at least in the mid levels. There was a solid snow or mostly snow/sleet sounding on every model each run here for the overnight hours to about 8 or 9am here. Obviously that's not the case. Also, the radar pattern seems to suggest that the heaviest precip. for later this morning may be headed north of where it was modeled. It was originally modeled to be heaviest south of Macon. Then it moved north to Macon or even slightly above there as the latest Euro just showed. It has been moving northward slowly through the day. And now look in SW AL where the heaviest returns are aimed: toward the southern burbs of ATL or ~50 miles north of Macon. Am I seeing that right? Opinions? 32.0 here in Dunwoody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 its much drier than this morning. the winds are gusting to 14 mph now, and the snow from this morning is being blown off the roof. trees are swaying too lol its easy to tell whats falling and whats blowing, believe it or not. blowing snow is like dust, the flakes are nickel size. its pouring down. temp 27 dewpoints falling Thanks. I'm hoping the snow here isn't too wet. We might have power outages galore if it is, especially with the projected wind gusts. Good night, everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Very impressive amount of wind associated with this storm already. Atl 16 sustained gust to 28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The warm nose is very strong...I think it's going to surprise people who thought they'd stay out of the ice or sleet for the most part. honestly i dont know that i have ever been in a really big se snowstorm that didnt change over to sleet or freezing rain or freezing drizzle at some point. would love to stay all snow, but i am not expecting it. would love to be wrong of course lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Also, the radar pattern seems to suggest that the heaviest precip. for later this morning may be headed north of where it was modeled. It was originally modeled to be heaviest south of Macon. Then it moved north to Macon or even slightly above there as the latest Euro just showed. It has been moving northward slowly through the day. And now look in SW AL where the heaviest returns are aimed: toward the southern burbs of ATL or ~50 miles north of Macon. Am I seeing that right? Opinions? 32.0 here in Dunwoody. Dead on the money. Same thing occurred with the storm a couple weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Also, the radar pattern seems to suggest that the heaviest precip. for later this morning may be headed north of where it was modeled. It was originally modeled to be heaviest south of Macon. Then it moved north to Macon or even slightly above there as the latest Euro just showed. It has been moving northward slowly through the day. And now look in SW AL where the heaviest returns are aimed: toward the southern burbs of ATL or ~50 miles north of Macon. Am I seeing that right? Opinions? 32.0 here in Dunwoody. Larry, To me that huge slug of moisture in Alabama south of I-20 there, has a bullseye on ATL, maybe just barely south of ATL to cross and head right towards AHN from a SW to NE transition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Also, the radar pattern seems to suggest that the heaviest precip. for later this morning may be headed north of where it was modeled. It was originally modeled to be heaviest south of Macon. Then it moved north to Macon or even slightly above there as the latest Euro just showed. It has been moving northward slowly through the day. And now look in SW AL where the heaviest returns are aimed: toward the southern burbs of ATL or ~50 miles north of Macon. Am I seeing that right? Opinions? 32.0 here in Dunwoody. Typical NW trend right at the end. Never seems to fail. Still stuck at 32 here. No signs whatsoever of ice accretion thus far. Here= Loganville, Ga. Midway between Atlanta and Athens along Hwy. 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 3:05 AM FFC radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterhawk Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Sleet now mixing in; you can hear the tree branches with the ice on them in the wind; really picking up.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Also, the radar pattern seems to suggest that the heaviest precip. for later this morning may be headed north of where it was modeled. It was originally modeled to be heaviest south of Macon. Then it moved north to Macon or even slightly above there as the latest Euro just showed. It has been moving northward slowly through the day. And now look in SW AL where the heaviest returns are aimed: toward the southern burbs of ATL or ~50 miles north of Macon. Am I seeing that right? Opinions? 32.0 here in Dunwoody. I had alluded to this point earlier speaking of the axis of heavy precip per GGEM looking to come more north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Typical NW trend right at the end. Never seems to fail. Still stuck at 32 here. No signs whatsoever of ice accretion thus far. Here= Loganville, Ga. Midway between Atlanta and Athens along Hwy. 78 How naive of me to forget about the NW trend....the bulleyes was showing SE of Atlanta. With NW trend, it puts the bulleyes right back on it. Now I'm skeptical of much snow at all on the backside... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evil Elvis Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Steady rain, occasional sleet, 34 degrees and anxious in Peachtree City, GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Let me get this right as a general consensus.. there are areas of N. GA that are ZR? Areas that were supposed to be starting as sleet/snow or ZR.. or just plain rain such as ATL? If I am reading right; WOW. I know my forecast is off from models starting as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Temp is dropping like a rock. 30.6 and a heavy band of moisture coming. Hoping that will be sleet or snow... anything but ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterhawk Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Taller bushes starting to droop from the ice and getting worse; fail on the wrong side for this one.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Taller bushes starting to droop from the ice and getting worse; fail on the wrong side for this one.. I have a tree cracking. :/ Oh lord. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterhawk Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Let me get this right as a general consensus.. there are areas of N. GA that are ZR? Areas that were supposed to be starting as sleet/snow or ZR.. or just plain rain such as ATL? If I am reading right; WOW. I know my forecast is off from models starting as snow. I'm in the Northern 'burbs and we were supposed to get sleet/snow. Barely any sleet and getting yucky ZR... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 If Atlanta stays as ZR for any substantial length of time this is going to be a complete disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Calm down everyone. the temps are still going to drop.... HRRR has them dropping throughout the rest of the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterhawk Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 If Atlanta stays as ZR for any substantial length of time this is going to be a complete disaster. Radar trends show convection starting to fire along the gulf near LA, it was talked about but not modeled that I'm aware of. Appears bulk of moisture may be going more south at least for AL/GA. Not sure where this will lead but the Northern 'burbs ZR isn't good; ATL itself is still above freezing so short-term the city appears to be just rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 If Atlanta stays as ZR for any substantial length of time this is going to be a complete disaster. Yep. I good sign for atlanta will be if folks like me go over to sleet since me, athens, gainesville, etc are deeper into the wedge. If so, that means the boundary layer is cold enough to refreeze the melted flakes/rain. If areas that are deeper into the wedge can't make it then atlanta sure won't. Because right now the only thing that is going to save us is if this goes to sleet. however later in the day, it's going to change back to freezing rain as the warm layer is simply to huge to overcome. I'm really at a loss to explain how or why so much rain/freezing rain has started here since even if there was a warm nose only around 800mb and just barely above freezing it should have refrozen/it should be sleet. The fact it's not means either this precip is very low based in it's formation (doesn't start as snow) or the warm layer is much deeper, closer to the ground (preventing refreezing to sleet before hitting the ground, or what level(s) it is, is simply much warmer than expected. i don't like this..at all. I'm hoping at least those heavy returns up stream will mean mostly or all sleet as they would surely be able to pass through the cold layer fast enough to not melt all the way, allowing them to refreeze as it hits the cold boundary layer from 900mb and below...or maybe even be heavy enough to at least cool down the warm layer enough to not allow so much melting. Just anyway to get us away from being freezing rain is what i'm praying for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Calm down everyone. the temps are still going to drop.... HRRR has them dropping throughout the rest of the night. You know very well that we here in the Midlands will get some major WAA here soon to make sure to not get snow. Hope you mean for the Northern zones. Crazy though! Hope N. GA doesn't end up all ZR like our areas in SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterhawk Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Yep. I good sign for atlanta will be if folks like me go over to sleet since me, athens, gainesville, etc are deeper into the wedge. If so, that means the boundary layer is cold enough to refreeze the melted flakes/rain. If areas that are deeper into the wedge can't make it then atlanta sure won't. Because right now the only thing that is going to save us is if this goes to sleet. however later in the day, it's going to change back to freezing rain as the warm layer is simply to huge to overcome. I'm really at a loss to explain how or why so much rain/freezing rain has started here since even if there was a warm nose only around 800mb and just barely above freezing it should have refrozen/it should be sleet. The fact it's not means either this precip is very low based in it's formation (doesn't start as snow) or the warm layer is much deeper, closer to the ground (preventing refreezing to sleet before hitting the ground, or what level(s) it is, is simply much warmer than expected. i don't like this..at all. I'm hoping at least those heavy returns up stream will mean mostly or all sleet as they would surely be able to pass through the cold layer fast enough to not melt all the way, allowing them to refreeze as it hits the cold boundary layer from 900mb and below...or maybe even be heavy enough to at least cool down the warm layer enough to not allow so much melting. Just anyway to get us away from being freezing rain is what i'm praying for. This has all the makings of an EPIC Fail; and I hate to say something like that so early.. edit - for some of us.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 You know very well that we here in the Midlands will get some major WAA here soon to make sure to not get snow. Hope you mean for the Northern zones. Crazy though! Hope N. GA doesn't end up all ZR like our areas in SC. I just took a look at a few stations and some have DP and Temp rapidly falling from a NE to SW fashion. Now is where the read CAD begins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'll admit, I got so caught up on the ice potential, I neglected to take notice to the strong winds until today (well Tuesday). It's whipping out there. Conditions will continue to deteriorate rapidly here in Atlanta. And with that I'm off to bed for a couple of hours, it's pretty anti-climatic here atm besides wet roads from what I can tell. I'm sure that will change by 6am. 32.4°F DP: 28°F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 This has all the makings of an EPIC Fail; and I hate to say something like that so early.. edit - for some of us.. I'm still holding out hope for my 6 to 10 inches of snow glen burns and company have been forecasting for us all night....yeah right lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 This has all the makings of an EPIC Fail; and I hate to say something like that so early.. edit - for some of us.. Yeah I was just thinking this. I'm not convinced we see very much snow except in the deform band (and even that isn't a given). WSB is still showing 5-9 inches of snow and sleet for the northern burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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