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The Big One - Observation


JoshM

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I feel you. It literally looks like we're gonna be halfway done by the time we get below freezing  <_<

 

33.2 and rain rain rain

 

 

 

32.8°. This is agonizing to say the least. All this wasted QPF

 

:( that sucks big time :axe:  we all know the agony of waiting for the temp to hit that magical freezing mark and watching it drop by tenths of a degree for hours :fulltilt:

 

i hope it changes over there soon!!

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First few snow/freezing rain reports coming into GA now.

 

Here's our storm!

J9Yxj2p.png

 

 

 

Gonna go sleep now, long day ahead tomorrow! 

 

 

Edit: I must say, reports coming in from N Louisiana im seeing .50" and 1" freezing rain reports in areas. Just insane to think its the start and areas to the east will top that... 

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 Here in Dunwoody (north of ATL), it dropped to 33.3 for the lowest so far with the continued very light rain, which has been going for 1.5 hours. It has crept back up to 33.6 as of ~1 AM.

 

 As of 1:45 AM, a new lowest at 32.5 here in Dunwoody. It is dropping fairly quickly now. Rain continues but not as light. Will it go over to ZR soon?

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If it doesn't change over to sleet soon, lots of places in the ATL metro might be looking at ZR within the next few hours. 

 

I may be looking at ZR within the next half hour to an hour with this faster fall. 32.5 in Dunwoody with rain but has fallen about a degree in less than an hour, the fastest since yesterday. Come on IP!

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After starting off as sleet, it actually went to rain/freezing rain...now it's back to heavy sleet again. I never would have suspected rain with the sounding that the models showed overnight. Not sure if that means it's warmer than model projections or what but it's over now...maybe a flake mixed in at times now. rap insists on it changing to snow here within the next hour or 2.

 

Its ironic since burns just said him and brad mits are saying they are seeing evidence of it being colder than expected so they are upping totals. I  tell you burns and company are brave calling for 6 to 10 inches of snow as far south as northern atlanta based on his crappy computer models. there is absolutely nothing out there that shows that..like I said..*cough*..brave.

 

Yea its not changing over anytime soon looking at the CC from the ATL radar... snow line is well N at the moment.

 

FFC.N0C.20140212.0651.gif

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32 with continued light rain here.  No sleet, and no sign of accretion yet.  Won't be long though.  I'm rather impressed with how far south the near freezing temps have already pushed into central Ga.

 

Here= Loganville, Ga.  Midway between Atlanta and Athens along Hwy. 78

 

 

i am familiar with loganville - you appear to be right at the freezing line.  should be below you soon i would think

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25/14, Mostly Cloudy.  We've been stuck at 25 for four hours now.  I'd expect us to drop another few degrees by dawn, but we'll see.

 

I'd have to think it's almost certain that we'll be overcast by dawn, so the sun shouldn't be able to warm us up much.  Radar trends would seem to indicate a start time sometime around 8-9 AM, but we'll see.  Virga shouldn't be too much of an issue.

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i am familiar with loganville - you appear to be right at the freezing line.  should be below you soon i would think

Yeah, I'm right at 32 now.  Untested zr thermometer, so it could be off a little.

 

I came very, very close to moving to Habersham when we relocated here.  Sort of wishing I did right about now lol.

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Again using Correlation Coefficient is a great way to find where the snow/sleet line is at. Where mixing occurs, the correlation coefficient drops off significantly (below .9) as mixed precipitation snow/sleet/freezing rain occurs. Amounts from .9 to 1 can depict rain, snow, or sleet but only if all of the hydrometeors are of the same composition. 

 

codnexlab.NEXRAD.GSP.N0C.20140212.701.02

 

Right now that line is on the southern edge of Abbeville County on the SC/GA border. Points southward are sleet/freezing rain while points northward are mainly snow at this point. The first 6-12 hours should see this line rise actually as the 850 hPa low remains to our east and warm air advection wins over dynamical cooling to inch the sleet line northward towards the I-85 corridor. 

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25/14, Mostly Cloudy.  We've been stuck at 25 for four hours now.  I'd expect us to drop another few degrees by dawn, but we'll see.

 

I'd have to think it's almost certain that we'll be overcast by dawn, so the sun shouldn't be able to warm us up much.  Radar trends would seem to indicate a start time sometime around 8-9 AM, but we'll see.  Virga shouldn't be too much of an issue.

 

Can I trade you 5° please? :)

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25/14, Mostly Cloudy.  We've been stuck at 25 for four hours now.  I'd expect us to drop another few degrees by dawn, but we'll see.

 

I'd have to think it's almost certain that we'll be overcast by dawn, so the sun shouldn't be able to warm us up much.  Radar trends would seem to indicate a start time sometime around 8-9 AM, but we'll see.  Virga shouldn't be too much of an issue.

 

unlike virtually all other wedge events here, this is the first time that as soon as the echos started overhead the snow was making it to the ground.  there was no virga from what i could tell (if it was would have been a few minutes most).  dewpoint in the uppers 20s here, though. yours might be quite a bit lower now that i think about it

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