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The Big One - Observation


JoshM

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SJ, just walked the dog and noticed a clear sky and stars everywhere! Dropped to 29 as well. Couldnt ask for q better pre-storm setup. This is going to be beyond amazing. Daylight snow too!

 

Yes, I see that now.  That should allow for some good radiational cooling tonight.  Surface temperatures will certainly not be an issue, which is going to be a relief.  Now, we just need to make sure those 850s don't screw us.  :gun_bandana:

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Worried about areas with high dewpoints that saw precip today. Will strong CAA help to slide temps down as we go through the night and the morning, or is this about it? Currently 30/29.

 

Up the road from you (so to speak), our dew point is 11; temp is 22.1

 

northern Granville County, NC / southern Halifax County, VA

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i think my brain is mushy after the  model watching last couple of days and then this mornings surprise around here lol. the temps and dewpoint have been steady most of the day.  noticed that all the fog is completely gone and went out to check, seems like the winds are picking up again (this time not from precip) and temp is down to 28.3 (of course that could just be due to the sun going down). i am not sure if my sensor is acting up or what, but the dewpoint has been fluctuating the last 15-20 min between 31 and 28.  maybe the wedge is just starting to filter in? i honestly have seen so many models i can remember about when the CAD was expected to build in other than sometime tonight.

 

nice to see the radar starting to get active over alabama again :devilsmiley:

 

 

 

Temp.:  22.1

DP:  11

 

northern Granville County, NC / southern Halifax County, VA

 

wow now that is a low dewpoint!  send it on down our way lol

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Waiting game now. 34.4 at west side of AHN, dp at 32.

 

That is right about what CAE is as well.  CLT is 33/29, so there isn't much drier air available until you get way up into NC and Virginia, why I personally think it will be very wet in a lot of areas tonight into tomorrow morning.

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I was surprised too but I checked a few nearby official sites (Danville and Henderson) and they are down to the teens too.

 

thats great to hear for those of us waiting/hoping/counting on a great CAD to build in (which may be happening).  after your post i started checking the dewpoints...they are in the teens around the nc/va border; lower 20s towards middle nc (winston-salem) and upper 20s around gsp. 

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thats great to hear for those of us waiting/hoping/counting on a great CAD to build in

 

Just for fun...

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=36.55179504378&lon=-78.79559322609566#.UvrPi-_-s5s

 

Check out the link...just to the south (inside NC) and just to the east of Virgilina, you'll get 3 different forecast amounts (albeit the difference between the two on the VA side of the border aren't as different as they are from the Raleigh forecast.

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Just for fun...

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=36.55179504378&lon=-78.79559322609566#.UvrPi-_-s5s

 

Check out the link...just to the south (inside NC) and just to the east of Virgilina, you'll get 3 different forecast amounts (albeit the difference between the two on the VA side of the border aren't as different as they are from the Raleigh forecast.

lol - sounds like around here sometimes.  its always interesting to see what the counties that are adjacent to each other, but fall under different nws offices, put out as their respective forecasts.  there are different amounts around here like in the link for your area lol

 

my dewpoint is still fluctuating a lot. guess i will traipse around the house and see whats going on

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Dewpoint has fallen into the upper 20's here finally.  Looks like the real drier air is still making its way down from the northern part of South Carolina.....DPs up in to southern Virginia are in the teens.  Perhaps its just taken a little longer for the high to get in position not to mention the saturation that occurred earlier today with the first wave.  Anywho, makes me feel much better being at freezing and DPs in the 20's before the precip moves in.  

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Dewpoint has fallen into the upper 20's here finally.  Looks like the real drier air is still making its way down from the northern part of South Carolina.....DPs up in to southern Virginia are in the teens.  Perhaps its just taken a little longer for the high to get in position not to mention the saturation that occurred earlier today with the first wave.  Anywho, makes me feel much better being at freezing and DPs in the 20's before the precip moves in.  

 

That definitely spells trouble up that way.  CHS is now reporting 35F, the same as CAE, pretty remarkable.  It wouldn't surprise me in the least if CHS drops right on by CAE, Columbia is a special special place.

 

Edit:  The dewpoint at CHS is also 32F, could get ugly pretty close to the coast as well.

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Dewpoint has fallen into the upper 20's here finally.  Looks like the real drier air is still making its way down from the northern part of South Carolina.....DPs up in to southern Virginia are in the teens.  Perhaps its just taken a little longer for the high to get in position not to mention the saturation that occurred earlier today with the first wave.  Anywho, makes me feel much better being at freezing and DPs in the 20's before the precip moves in.  

 

ditto on the temps and dewpoints.  this is unusual in that we arent counting on evap cooling and low dewpoints.  still this is the se and you can never be too careful

 

looks like the dewpoints are at or below 32 for most of n central and ne ga and the upper 20s in sc and low 20s/teens in nc.  the temps are also now at or below freezing for the vast majority of locations.  this is certainly good to see finally.

 

my temp is now an even 28, and all the slush/wet spots are icy.  at least it should start sticking as soon as it starts falling :lol:

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We are down  to 19F with a Td of 9 at Virgilinia, VA/NC

 

NWS Blacksburg wrote (at 730PM) that they were a little worried about warmth coming into the southside of VA/ northern NC (east of Danville) but that was before the NAM was released.   Maybe splitting hairs?  Anyway, cold air is definitely filtering south along the US 501 and 15/360 corridors north of I-85. 

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ditto on the temps and dewpoints.  this is unusual in that we arent counting on evap cooling and low dewpoints.  still this is the se and you can never be too careful

 

looks like the dewpoints are at or below 32 for most of n central and ne ga and the upper 20s in sc and low 20s/teens in nc.  the temps are also now at or below freezing for the vast majority of locations.  this is certainly good to see finally.

 

my temp is now an even 28, and all the slush/wet spots are icy.  at least it should start sticking as soon as it starts falling :lol:

Temp is down to 32 here.  One part of the reason I think the models are driving the temperature down is because right above the surface it's so cold. Athens is -6c by sunrise at 950mb. I think some of the cold simply "works down".

 

At any rate, precip breaking out fast now..rain being reported down near columbus.

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Temp is down to 32 here.  One part of the reason I think the models are driving the temperature down is because right above the surface it's so cold. Athens is -6c by sunrise at 950mb. I think some of the cold simply "works down".

 

At any rate, precip breaking out fast now..rain being reported down near columbus.

 

think i can finally say that the wedge is doing its wedge thing finally lol.  just took the dog out and the ne winds are noticeable along with some decent gusts which is i think happened before they stopped years ago lol (j/k)

 

there filtered moon and a few stars in and out of the clouds, temp down to 27 so drier, colder air definitely coming down.  it appears parts of the upstate had a lot of snow but it didnt accumulate much.  still 4" here so that should help others father downstream i hope

 

mby hasnt really had the 'cad' feeling like it does tonight for a change.  whew :lol:

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NWS Jackson pulled WSW south. For my friends to west.


000
FXUS64 KJAN 120243 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
843 PM CST TUE FEB 11 2014

.UPDATE...EXPANDED WINTER STORM WARNING FURTHER SOUTH BASED ON
OBSERVATION AND RADAR DATA. THIS EXPANSION INCLUDES PORTIONS OF THE
JACKSON METRO AREA. ALSO EXPANDED AND EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FURTHER SOUTH AND THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WARMING IN THE COLUMN...
FROM NEARING SURFACE LOW OVER THE GULF...LOOKS TO OCCUR OVER E MS/AL
AND NOT PIVOT SO MUCH WESTWARD INTO THE REST OF MS. 
OTHER THAN SOME
SLIGHT MOVEMENT IN TEMPERATURE OVER THE EAST...ELSEWHERE THEY HAVE
NOT BUDGED MUCH FROM THE AFTERNOON./26



4zq78.jpg

image2.gif

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
826 PM CST TUE FEB 11 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING FOR
AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE
PARKWAY...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI OUTSIDE OF THE WINTER STORM
WARNING...

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>029-032-
034>037-040>043-047-048-053-059-060-121030-
/O.CON.KJAN.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-140212T1800Z/
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CHOCTAW-
WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-
MADISON MS-WARREN-HINDS-CLAIBORNE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROSSETT...NORTH CROSSETT...HAMBURG...
WEST CROSSETT...DERMOTT...LAKE VILLAGE...EUDORA...BASTROP...
OAK GROVE...EPPS...LAKE PROVIDENCE...RAYVILLE...DELHI...
TALLULAH...WINNSBORO...JONESVILLE...HARRISONBURG...NEWELLTON...
ST. JOSEPH...WATERPROOF...VIDALIA...FERRIDAY...WEST FERRIDAY...
CLEVELAND...INDIANOLA...RULEVILLE...GREENWOOD...GRENADA...
VAIDEN...NORTH CARROLLTON...CARROLLTON...WINONA...EUPORA...
MABEN...MATHISTON...ACKERMAN...WEIR...GREENVILLE...BELZONI...
ISOLA...DURANT...TCHULA...LEXINGTON...PICKENS...GOODMAN...
KOSCIUSKO...MAYERSVILLE...ROLLING FORK...ANGUILLA...YAZOO CITY...
RIDGELAND...MADISON...CANTON...VICKSBURG...JACKSON...
PORT GIBSON...FAYETTE...NATCHEZ
826 PM CST TUE FEB 11 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST
WEDNESDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST
WEDNESDAY.

* TIMING: THROUGH MID DAY WEDNESDAY

* MAIN IMPACT: FREEZING RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL RESULT IN
  ACCUMULATING ICE ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
  CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS A RESULT. POWER LINES MAY ALSO
  BECOME COATED IN ICE...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME POWER OUTAGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF ICE ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR
IMPOSSIBLE. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. 

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