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The Big One - Observation


JoshM

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Well after being teased and teased all morning it's finally all snow here. Up until now it would be sleet, sleet/snow and back again a dozen times. But finally switched over completely a few minutes ago with the huge flakes everyone else has been getting all morning. Absolutely beautiful...flakes don't get much better looking. Picked up  about a half inch of sleet before the changeover. There is a west to east band of precip that goes from here to athens to north of atlanta..if that holds together and moves over me I could still end up with a a little accumulation.  Which I would be grateful to get  after so much agonizing this morning. But clearly I won't get too much. Disappointing to miss it by probably no more than 10 miles all morning.

 

That is if i stay all snow but Hopefully I'll stay snow to the end  but I wouldn't be shocked if it changed back to sleet or mix back with it since I've been right under the very narrow transition zone all morning. Hell I thought about not even posting about it out of fear of jinxing myself back to sleet or something. In fact, there is some sleet mixing back in and the flakes are smaller :axe: . That might be because returns are weaker now or at least I hope.  Speaking of that, they have decreased a lot before getting here all morning..just like with the last storm. Ugh.

 

Temp is 33

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 I'm a few miles NW of you where 850's likely slightly colder. Now 34.9 and back to all IP now as of 9:40 AM. IP/S mix lasted only a few minutes.

 

Here in Dunwoody, it changed back from IP to a IP/S mix at 11 AM though the temp. has now increased from ~35 to 35.8.

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It is absolutely sickening watching all of this melt!  It has been coming down steady since before 6 am here in Easley and I would think around 3 inches so far but it is melting faster than it falls. If we had this storm a few weeks ago instead of the other one, it would really be epic!!!

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temp has been just under 30 for a while.  for a minute i was wondering if the heavier returns were going to be sleet - instead of sleet its very heavy snow falling :snowing:

 

hoping to make 4" for round 1 lol.  just lost satellite signal :yikes: and will see if can clean the dish off

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I'm officially saying this event is overperforming in Charlotte. Eyeball test looks like close to 1.5 or 2".

NICE! I'm saying an inch here on my side of town, heavier returns setup just to the south and east of 85, right over Uptown and south of there. No complaining from me though as I've got a better chance of no to little mixing here than there tomorrow.

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temp has been just under 30 for a while.  for a minute i was wondering if the heavier returns were going to be sleet - instead of sleet its very heavy snow falling :snowing:

 

hoping to make 4" for round 1 lol.  just lost satellite signal :yikes: and will see if can clean the dish off

You sure are primed to get nailed with the second system. I don't think you are going to have any issues with mixing so a foot of snow is within reach. I'm jealous since I will be dealing with a lot of sleet here. I am hoping though that there will be a front end dumping as the precip moves in. Models look cold enough here for that to happen. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if that snow is extremely heavy and will put down a couple of inches per hour before going to sleet. Just need it to do that for a few hours and I'll be happy with whatever follows (except tons of freezing rain). There is an outside chance that dynamical cooling could offset the warm advection for a little while but no way to know that right now.

 

Models continue to slam me and others around here overall  though with a lot of guidance showing 2 inches liquid. Hopefully the nam is wrong because it looks like a lot of freezing rain here for a time with a thicker warm nose.

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Gettins are REAL good in southern pines, snow like I haven't seen in a long while!

 

 

Just had a Good 10 min burst of heavy snow at Ft Bragg.

Same in western Fayetteville. Still a pretty decent burst, flakes are smaller but still coming down moderately almost heavy. Visibility is pretty low. Backyard getting covered, so is my car and the roofs! At least the streets are holding out. although on 1-28 my neighborhood roads were completely fine compared to surface streets

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