packbacker Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Radar is showing stuff building and lifting from the the south west toward the triangle. I'm a little concerned about the upper air dynamics though. 850 line still well to the west, check out meso analysis attached: My air temp is climbing a bit above freezing now as well, 32.2. 850's collapse as the h5 low moves through, that won't be the problem, it's getting nice precip over you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Yes, of course ncweather and packbacker. Makes sense. Rotation associated with the ull appears to be just west of Charlotte at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Looks like RAH is seeing the same thing. They've downshifted to 1" to 2" thru tonight. The sun is trying to come out in Raleigh right now. It's not the temps, it's the precip banding seems to be setting up more west, kind of bummer but hard to be disappointed as we over achieved yesterday big time. Looks like RDU got 4-6", puts us right at climo for the season too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Wow! 70s in the forcast next Thu-Sat! I'm ready Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Radar showing nice returns south and east of Charlotte near the NC/SC border. I suspect that could continue and even build as it lifts toward the triangle about the time the 850s fall in line. Will be interesting later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Wow! 70s in the forcast next Thu-Sat! I'm ready Tell me about it, so glad I don't have to follow models as much anymore. I hope we torch from here on out, but unfortunately the Euro ENS day 11-15 bring back the west coast ridge, trough in the east with some blocking (uggghhh). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Tell me about it, so glad I don't have to follow models as much anymore. I hope we torch from here on out, but unfortunately the Euro ENS day 11-15 bring back the west coast ridge, trough in the east with some blocking (uggghhh).I'm all in! TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rawlee Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Radar filling in nice to the south. Think I'm the only person in N Raleigh without power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ekman Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Tell me about it, so glad I don't have to follow models as much anymore. I hope we torch from here on out, but unfortunately the Euro ENS day 11-15 bring back the west coast ridge, trough in the east with some blocking (uggghhh). Onward to severe thunderstorm season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 PB Winter is not over yet. Got atleast till the end of March before we can finally say no more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueheels2 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Radar filling in nice to the south. Think I'm the only person in N Raleigh without power. We lost power for a couple of hours last night but it was back on by 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 PB Winter is not over yet. Got atleast till the end of March before we can finally say no more snow. LOL, I am so ready for warm weather, soccer starts next week for the kids. GFS agrees too, looks like this warmup may be short lived next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Tell me about it, so glad I don't have to follow models as much anymore. I hope we torch from here on out, but unfortunately the Euro ENS day 11-15 bring back the west coast ridge, trough in the east with some blocking (uggghhh).Atleast we have 2 weeks to catch up on sleep!! Before we get one of those epic March snows! I've probably gotten 20 hours of sleep the last 5 days! Been a very fun storm to track! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rawlee Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Went down around 7. Power line snapped across millbrook rd. Closed now between Lead Mine and North Hills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rawlee Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 LOL, I am so ready for warm weather, soccer starts next week for the kids. GFS agrees too, looks like this warmup may be short lived next week. We start practice Monday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Well here comes the depressing part, clouds are breaking up and melting is fully underway..especially on the trees with a temp of 35. I don't expect melting to be as fast as it normally is on the ground with so much sleet and ice accumulation..especially compared to if it was just snow. But it will be fast none the less because of how warm temps get today and sunshine. I know this isn't a terribly cold airmass by now but since it's been cloudy all morning, hell snowing too up until about 9:45, one would think temps would not have warmed much. But in fact temps started to warm up early this morning. It was 27 at 2:30 am last night but by just before sunrise the temp had risen to 31...and that is with good snow fall up until that point. Hard to believe but looks like low 40s are in the cards today at this rate. I sure wish we would have had a cold airmass behind this like back in 11 instead of our typical break neck melting speed temps we get after most snows. On a side note, just saw a snow scrapper go down the road. Only the 2nd time i've ever seen our road get scrapped..the other time was after the jan 11 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Radar looks to be filling in pretty decently. Looking at the HRRR trends, it has generally been for less snow for Raleigh south and east, so I'm not optimistic I'll see much of anything here in the southeast part of the county. But the radar is looking ok. I'm hoping we get a 20 mile or so expansion south and east of what the guidance is showing. Right on the fringe as usual. I'd be very excited to be in the zone from CLT to RDU to INT and NE of there. That area looks good for a broad 2-3, perhaps more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 At least we won't have to worry about overcoming dry air today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Atleast we have 2 weeks to catch up on sleep!! Before we get one of those epic March snows! I've probably gotten 20 hours of sleep the last 5 days! Been a very fun storm to track! Tell me about, that and my lack of productivity at work lately hasn't been good. We start practice Monday! Next week should be warm but the week after looks cold, as of now, we are getting to end of Feb so it should be warmer even with the trough in the east and ridging in the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 And there's a sun angle thing. Night snow from here on out, or it's rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 This may be a dumb or over-asked question, but how is sleet accumulation officially recorded? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I felt like a little bust at my house, but a nice event with 3 days straight of off and on wintry precip is a win! 3 day total: 4 on Tuesday , 2-3 yesterday + 1 inch of sleet + 1/16 of zr, an inch today= end of 3 year snow drought for me, and many, many others on here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 And there's a sun angle thing. Night snow from here on out, or it's rain. LOL, ground temps too It's freezing rain at my house again, this precip is streaking north faster than models thought, should switch to sleet than to snow after noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I felt like a little bust at my house, but a nice event with 3 days straight of off and on wintry precip is a win! 3 day total: 4 on Tuesday , 2-3 yesterday + 1 inch of sleet + 1/16 of zr, an inch today= end of 3 year snow drought for me, and many, many others on here! Yeah, western NC didn't get the big totals everyone had thought but literally all of NC saw snow and good snows at that. For as much belly aching I have done this has been a pretty good winter with a +NAO too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poptones Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 agreed that we might get clipped here this afternoon (raleigh) but not the big stuff. at least for our area, yesterday totally exceeded my expectations and I'd say it kind of worked out perfectly - more snow than I thought, enough ice to beautify things without wrecking anything (except rawlee, sorry man), and no real rain to wash it all away. I'm fine with another storm (ha) but it'll be real nice for morning temps to be above freezing - golf awaits! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The SLP ended up tracking right over Hatteras, the Euro was not great when it got within 48 hours, it was tracking the SLP consistently 100 miles further west, right over Jacksonville. It was showing way to much QPF for everyone too and was to deep. Still it totally nailed this storm from 7-8 days out, it's the king again and belongs on Mt Rushmore. The GFS actually did fairly well, whether it was lucky or not but it was correct with the more eastern SLP track and didn't go as crazy with QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Tell me about it, so glad I don't have to follow models as much anymore. I hope we torch from here on out, but unfortunately the Euro ENS day 11-15 bring back the west coast ridge, trough in the east with some blocking (uggghhh). Good, maybe I'll have shot at a decent snow sometime this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Yeah, western NC didn't get the big totals everyone had thought but literally all of NC saw snow and good snows at that. For as much belly aching I have done this has been a pretty good winter with a +NAO too. Seen several foot totals from folks in this area (WNC) from social media outlets and news outlets. Not widespread totals but widespread 10 inch totals for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 RAP is definitely showing the heaviest precip staying NW of Wake County, still like Durham/Roxboro to cash in with 2-4", maybe Wake gets 1-2", probably 1" would be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Radar filling in nicely just to the west of Wake Co. We might be in a decent spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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