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Burns' Big Banter Bonanza


NCsandhills

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  On 2/13/2014 at 1:01 PM, Cold Rain said:

He Grit, I got a shade over 4 and then sleeted for a good while. Changed to zr in the evening and got that most of the night. It did not accrue well, but there is some on the trees, and they're not dripping, so I guess we're 31 or 32...certainly not lower than that. All in all, a good storm for me. Puts me over climo, I guess, and ends the RDU snow rought. We had 1"/hr rates for a couple of hours.

I thought you guys averaged around 80" a year? At least the way brick talks big storms are common from Nov to February for the rdu area.
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  On 2/13/2014 at 1:13 PM, packbacker said:

Well the 11z HRRR just puts down 4-5" over your house and there is a big precip holes over my house between western Wake and Pittsboro. Woohoo snowhole back in effect!

I don't know how much I trust those models' high-res details. I'd imagine we're looking at precision, but not accuracy.
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  On 2/13/2014 at 1:13 PM, packbacker said:

Well the 11z HRRR just puts down 4-5" over your house and there is a big precip holes over my house between western Wake and Pittsboro. Woohoo snowhole back in effect!

Check please! Two would be a big win. I know it won't turn out exactly as it shows, but it'll be nice to see one more snowfall before winter is over.

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  On 2/13/2014 at 1:18 PM, WidreMann said:

Power outage map: https://www.progress-energy.com/app/outagemaps/carolinas.aspxThere's 1 person without power in Durham county. Poor guy (or gal).EDIT: here's the Duke power map: https://www.duke-energy.com/north-carolina/outages/current.aspThat makes 21 folks in Durham without power. Major ice storm!

A saw some green flashes last night around 2:30 am. Prolly flashed about 4-5 times.

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  On 2/13/2014 at 12:34 PM, packbacker said:

After lunch, you look to be in a great spot too, was surprised is so aggressive with potential accumulations for today. Maybe they lower them, it sounds to high.

 

Thats what I don't understand either. NWS going 3-6 with the ULL but that radar looks like crap

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  On 2/13/2014 at 1:52 PM, Cold Rain said:

That band is building all the way down into SC. Hopefully, that trend will continue.

 

That is nice but everything lifts NE, we have to hope to get clipped by it, probably why WRAL has 1-3" for the NW side of Wake, although I haven't seen there map, but just a guess.

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  On 2/13/2014 at 2:10 PM, packbacker said:

That is nice but everything lifts NE, we have to hope to get clipped by it, probably why WRAL has 1-3" for the NW side of Wake, although I haven't seen there map, but just a guess.

Yeah. I just got a chance to look at the 11z HRRR. It has less snowfall generally across our area. Not too concerned about the local maxes, but the general trend was less. WRAL's latest futurecast model run looked a little more robust than the last run though.

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  On 2/13/2014 at 2:42 PM, Dunkman said:

I really dont see how I get more than 1-2 from this in high point. Precip looks more meager than some of the simulated radar I saw. We shall see.

 

Radar looks awesome for the triad, that is all going to lift NE and it's moving slowly and it should be great rates.

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  On 2/13/2014 at 2:38 PM, Cold Rain said:

Cool deal! Thanks.

 

The last 4 runs of the HRRR have been very consistent about having the heaviest snows 20 miles east/west of I-85/I-40 split, Wake County is fringed with the heavy (3") snows on the HRRR, hopefully we can see 1-2". 

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  On 2/13/2014 at 2:47 PM, Jet Stream Rider said:

Radar is showing stuff building and lifting from the the south west toward the triangle. I'm a little concerned about the upper air dynamics though. 850 line still well to the west, check out meso analysis attached:

 

My air temp is climbing a bit above freezing now as well, 32.2.

 

850mb.gif?1392302676498

Looks like RAH is seeing the same thing. They've downshifted to 1" to 2" thru tonight. The sun is trying to come out in Raleigh right now.

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