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Burns' Big Banter Bonanza


NCsandhills

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hey - check out the obs thread, its wild.  people are going back to snow now in parts of ga nw of atl, moto in dahlonega is back to snow and the far nw upstate should be back to snow soon.  caa is apparently finally starting to kick in.  getting a monster sleet/zr storm imby at the moment, so the snow change (if it makes it here) cant be too fast lmao

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OK, I just came in from shoveling /brushing snow off the trampoline and I'm not worried about power outages here. The snow is like powder and blowing off the trees and all. We have almost 6 inches. There is still sleet mixed in, but that's ok. Even if the rest of the precip is sleet, I will still be happy just because my teenagers keep saying "I don't remember ever seeing this much snow!". :)

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I seriously hate ZR and IP. The way ip sounds banging against the house makes me cringe... :ee:

Thanks man. Does the closed contour off CHS mean anything, or is it really irrelevant in the context of the overall zone of lower pressure there?

I hope it gets over the GS for ya. I want to see the TNT dynamite stuff. :)

 

 

I'd say irrelevant. But it continues too show further proof my thoughts of the LP staying of the coast is true. Its just an extension of the trough of LP. Ultimately the track

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OK, I just came in from shoveling /brushing snow off the trampoline and I'm not worried about power outages here. The snow is like powder and blowing off the trees and all. We have almost 6 inches. There is still sleet mixed in, but that's ok. Even if the rest of the precip is sleet, I will still be happy just because my teenagers keep saying "I don't remember ever seeing this much snow!". :)

 

You're still seeing snow over in Kernersville?

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absolute pingerfest in Alamance Co.  Just took a walk down the block to look at the main road and it is sleeting with a force right now.  if you told me I could have about 4 more hours of this followed by ncwx's scenario of that L blowing up east and setting up a deform band for about 10 hours after that I'd take it :)

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I seriously hate ZR and IP. The way ip sounds banging against the house makes me cringe... :ee:

 

 

I'd say irrelevant. But it continues too show further proof my thoughts of the LP staying of the coast is true. Its just an extension of the trough of LP. Ultimately the track

 

If the SLP stays off the coast how quickly do you think that would crash 850's back in central Nc

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I seriously hate ZR and IP. The way ip sounds banging against the house makes me cringe... :ee:

 

 

I'd say irrelevant. But it continues too show further proof my thoughts of the LP staying of the coast is true. Its just an extension of the trough of LP. Ultimately the track

Gotcha. Makes sense.

On another note, clicking around on the NWS site, lots of obs of temps in the low 30s around me. Just north and west, temps are in the 20s. I wonder if that means temps are going to rise above freezing in the next few hours.....

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So this was a nice storm, RDU over performed, but I am getting the sense that this "historic" event is going to be that "historic"?  Anyone feeling that?  Was thinking INT/GSO would get over 10" and CLT would be 6-8" easy, the Euro was printing out 1.5" QPF consistently, even today it printed out 2"+ QPF for GSO.  That should bust, and bust bad?

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Saw a map on WRAL that showed east of Raleigh most places are approaching freezing.  Greg said he expected that trend to continue but I don't think he thought Raleigh would go above freezing.  

 

Most models had RDU approaching 31F or so tomorrow morning, HRRR get's us right to 32 and flirts with 33F.

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So this was a nice storm, RDU over performed, but I am getting the sense that this "historic" event is going to be that "historic"?  Anyone feeling that?  Was thinking INT/GSO would get over 10" and CLT would be 6-8" easy, the Euro was printing out 1.5" QPF consistently, even today it printed out 2"+ QPF for GSO.  That should bust, and bust bad?

 

Remember.....the low of the coast hasn't even formed yet.  Loooonng way to go

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HRRR does show the meek radar down in central SC

 

1ref_sfc_f02.png

 

but then fills and pivots east

 

1ref_sfc_f08.png

 

 

But then it fills in later and pivots NE.

 

 

That might be good for alot of folks. Judging by the obs thread and looking at spc aloft and alot of that in NW SC W NC N NC should begin to change back over since the 850 temps aloft are cooling.

If the SLP stays off the coast how quickly do you think that would crash 850's back in central Nc

Well its all ip here but judging by spc meso I would think no more than a couple hours of ip. Since the flow aloft at 850 is coming back in towards NC and the observations to go along with its starting to cool off aloft.

 

Gotcha. Makes sense.

On another note, clicking around on the NWS site, lots of obs of temps in the low 30s around me. Just north and west, temps are in the 20s. I wonder if that means temps are going to rise above freezing in the next few hours.....

I don't think so... not with the snowpack on the ground. 

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Well I guess all the watches and warning of impending doom weren't enough for Raleigh folks.  I'll have to give the NWS a grade of F in their primary mission of protecting life and property.   :whistle:

 

The weather in the Raleigh-Durham area caught North Carolinians off guard when it changed from a "non-precipitation event to heavy snowfall," the State Highway Patrol's Public Information Officer tells us.

by Sarah Aarthun 4:24 PM

Yeah, that change happened three days ago. WTF are they smoking?
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It's always easy to blame someone else for their own failings.

The start time for this event was actually pretty well forecast. The models were consistently showing the precip getting here between noon and 2 PM, and the NWS was saying the same. They shouldn't be blamed for their forecast actually being correct. I guess everyone figured that since the last one took forever to start, that that meant all storms would take forever to start.
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Rough est is about 120k Duke Energy customers without power ATM, mainly in NE SC and SE NC, they are starting to assign 2/15 restoration dates for many of them, other still assessing. Florence and Lumberton are still below freezing and continuing to add light to at time mod acreation. I would expect these numbers to rise as winds pick up with the coastal tracking just offshore.

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