Cold Rain Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I guess you referring to me But I find that hard to believe. Its still in the GOM with a trough axis across N FL east past JAX,FL. Jet Stream Rider's map looks like it might be reforming off SAV? And Pack posted in the storm thread that the Rap is coming east....over HAT at 18hrs now. That's good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbubba Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 After about 4-5 inches of snow here about five miles South of Raleigh, the sleet has started. That was some of the heaviest snow I've seen in years! I wish it could have continued another hour or two but we have to take what Mother Nature gives us and go with it. My yard looks like a scene from Dr. Zhivago. I've got my fingers crossed, hoping we won't have a replay of the 2002 Ice Storm. I don't think we'll see .67 inches of ice accrual like we did then but things are going to be touch and go when it comes to power outages. RWS thinks now we might get around .25 of an inch when all is said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Dry slot inbound. Gulf convection? No, maybe later tonight after mid-night, it will be close. Right now the deform band is starting to develop over northern AL, GA, SC and over the foothills, if you loop the image you can see it, it should start filling in nicely and than move NE, whoever gets under that will be crushed, all the snow we got is from over-running from the gulf low, not even the coastal yet. I really hope we stay sleet. The 18z RGEM came out, went east, just a hair east of HAT, the precip metogram is really ugly for FRZN for RDU, I sure it's wrong. Hardly any rain on the RGEM too. It could get ugly tonight. http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southeast.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Also, 18z GFS is way east of previous runs, it's east of HAT by a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Also, 18z GFS is way east of previous runs, it's east of HAT by a little bit. LOL at that model. Convective feedback again. That's just terrible. It's been rendered pretty useless after the short-range for three of the last four runs because of convective feedback. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 LOL at that model. Convective feedback again. That's just terrible. It's been rendered pretty useless after the short-range for three of the last four runs because of convective feedback. Precip wise, but not track, I agree it's probably to far east, but every model this afternoon has moved the SLP east, you should be pumped for tonight, no taint, deform band up your backside, get your shovel ready! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Precip wise, but not track, I agree it's probably to far east, but every model this afternoon has moved the SLP east, you should be pumped for tonight, no taint, deform band up your backside, get your shovel ready! Oh, yes, I agree. Looks like the lack of QPF as a result of the convective feedback screws up the temperature field, too. I just got back in from shoveling the first 4" about 30 minutes ago. Fun. EDIT: At least the GFS still shows the strong deformation band coming through, so it's not completely useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 No, maybe later tonight after mid-night, it will be close. Right now the deform band is starting to develop over northern AL, GA, SC and over the foothills, if you loop the image you can see it, it should start filling in nicely and than move NE, whoever gets under that will be crushed, all the snow we got is from over-running from the gulf low, not even the coastal yet. I really hope we stay sleet. The 18z RGEM came out, went east, just a hair east of HAT, the precip metogram is really ugly for FRZN for RDU, I sure it's wrong. Hardly any rain on the RGEM too. It could get ugly tonight. http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southeast.php . Gotcha. Looks like the returns to our south are lightening up, though. Precip looks to drop off pretty quickly soon. I'm with you on the zr thing. These east ticks are encouraging though. I would assume that increases our chances of more substantial back-end snow tomorrow, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Dry slot inbound. Gulf convection? It is developing... I95 bound?!? I think Not much on convection even though the a squall line west FL from a latitude of Orlando South. Yeah essentially off Sav/Jax with the developing LP Bodes well longer in the future... less ice and shifts the heaviest snow axis further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 It is developing... I95 bound?!? I think Not much on convection even though the a squall line west FL from a latitude of Orlando South. Yeah essentially off Sav/Jax with the developing LP Bodes well longer in the future... less ice and shifts the heaviest snow axis further east. Thanks man. Maybe we can keep the column deep enough here to keep it sleeting, which it's doing very lightly at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Thanks man. Maybe we can keep the column deep enough here to keep it sleeting, which it's doing very lightly at the moment. Looking at things, I am kind of hoping now this thing does track inland and we get dry slotted, with 5" of snow and some sleet this is a nice storm be nice if it stopped now and we didn't have to deal with freezing rain tonight. See if RAP starts ticking back west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'm amazed. We are down to 21F here and the snow is heavy and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Looking at things, I am kind of hoping now this thing does track inland and we get dry slotted, with 5" of snow and some sleet this is a nice storm be nice if it stopped now and we didn't have to deal with freezing rain tonight. See if RAP starts ticking back west. I am pulling for it far enough east to give us a sleet storm all night with a change back to heavy snow tomorrow. Come on man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Hey PB I noticed the heavy returns around RDU fading some. Has the sleet line stopped advancing north just south of RDU via your radarscope? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I think you all may be ok and turn back to snow. But i think central greenville co south rides the sleet train all the way to the station....unfortunately. Don't have a good feeling...A lot of frz rain here now. We're past sleet! Could go down as 2nd biggest bust since I've lived here. Thankful for my 2" but it's gonna have come down in loads to get to 8-12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mello Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I got yo sleet. Hours and hours of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Don't have a good feeling...A lot of frz rain here now. We're past sleet! Could go down as 2nd biggest bust since I've lived here. Thankful for my 2" but it's gonna have come down in loads to get to 8-12". ugh ditto here....just went out after a quick bite and its moderate freezing rain, glazing everything already. can hear it in the trees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Hey PB I noticed the heavy returns around RDU fading some. Has the sleet line stopped advancing north just south of RDU via your radarscope? No, I am all sleet, I think there will be a lull, RDU may get dry slotted, it's going to be very close, and if so it may be a blessing, I think I got about 5" of snow with sleet, wouldn't mind being done. Radar is filling in nicely to our SW, depends on where the dry slot is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Don't have a good feeling...A lot of frz rain here now. We're past sleet! Could go down as 2nd biggest bust since I've lived here. Thankful for my 2" but it's gonna have come down in loads to get to 8-12". Wow I cant believe your getting fzrn. Gotta say I thought this equaling 2011 was a shoe in at the very least, but unless things change soon this could be my biggest disappointment ever. Trying to stay positive though, hopefully we will change back to snow and get some heavier rates coming through. We haven't even had more than a few minute spurts of heavy precip so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Harv311 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Oh, yes, I agree. Looks like the lack of QPF as a result of the convective feedback screws up the temperature field, too. I just got back in from shoveling the first 4" about 30 minutes ago. Fun. EDIT: At least the GFS still shows the strong deformation band coming through, so it's not completely useless. if this is right int and geo is slammed keep shifting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateSCBud Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Yeah GSP has failed on this storm. Chris Justus keeps saying the heaviest snow is yet to come, just don't think it will be enough to reach the forecasted totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Yeah GSP has failed on this storm. Chris Justus keeps saying the heaviest snow is yet to come, just don't think it will be enough to reach the forecasted totals Just got lowered to 2-4 tonight. Oh well, I guess normally I would be happy with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nam0806 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I see a lot of people starting to call this storm a bust. Just to give an idea of where I am located, it's Clemson, SC. I think that is in the eye of the beholder. Of course it's not as much as forecasted - YET. I'm not saying it will or will not get better, but if the storm were to end right now - I'd be content. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Wow I cant believe your getting fzrn. Gotta say I thought this equaling 2011 was a shoe in at the very least, but unless things change soon this could be my biggest disappointment ever. Trying to stay positive though, hopefully we will change back to snow and get some heavier rates coming through. We haven't even had more than a few minute spurts of heavy precip so far. Neither can I and probably any of us ne ga to the upstate. Ton of precip to go and it's 26 so Things are icing up fast. Barring a miracle we could still maybe to to snow but haven't second thoughts on our heavy snow band. Pretty sure the 10"+ amts off the table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateSCBud Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I see a lot of people starting to call this storm a bust. Just to give an idea of where I am located, it's Clemson, SC. I think that is in the eye of the beholder. Of course it's not as much as forecasted - YET. I'm not saying it will or will not get better, but if the storm were to end right now - I'd be content. I'd be content too. I just hate it for future storms. People here actually took this storm seriously and prepared. I just wonder if next time they won't do the same because this one wasn't as bad as was forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'd be content too. I just hate it for future storms. People here actually took this storm seriously and prepared. I just wonder if next time they won't do the same because this one wasn't as bad as was forecasted. Concerned about that myself. Right now totals are nowhere anywhere near what was being forecast by every met with a soapbox in ATL. On the one hand, I am so happy about that because the amounts of frozen rain that were being suggested would have just destroyed tens of thousands of trees and property and probably hurt some people. On the other hand, I worry that next time, nobody will listen. Then again, it's clear that neither Charlotte nor Raleigh listened. And now they are the butt of jokes on this evening's ATL local news, complete with traffic cam photos of the disaster traffic in both cities. Heh. So even though ATL didn't get what they said we would, the fact that we avoided another 24 hour traffic jam means people will probably call this a success and move on with life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I see a lot of people starting to call this storm a bust. Just to give an idea of where I am located, it's Clemson, SC. I think that is in the eye of the beholder. Of course it's not as much as forecasted - YET. I'm not saying it will or will not get better, but if the storm were to end right now - I'd be content. It depends on where you are. In central NC, we got a lot more snow than expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowinnc Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 So will the sleet in RDU turn back to snow soon or is it still looking like the changeover will be much later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nam0806 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'd be content too. I just hate it for future storms. People here actually took this storm seriously and prepared. I just wonder if next time they won't do the same because this one wasn't as bad as was forecasted. I would say it's probably best to be prepared and not get anything than the other way around. I get your point though and people should prepare good or bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Just went out to check conditions. Switched quickly from moderate big flake snow to sleet and freezing rain! Surprised there is any liquid but I saw it on bare wood decking after I swept it. Then just as quick to moderate sleet, mixed with snow. Accumulation is 3-4 inches estimated, blowing and drifting. 23.2 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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