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Burns' Big Banter Bonanza


NCsandhills

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Long time lurker...just wanted to provide my feedback to anyone who is curious...I'm in west Wilson, NC (halfway between Raleigh and Greenville)...we have nothing but snow so far and about 6 inches of it.

Hey neighbor! Wow...Got a lot more than us here in town, it sounds like. You should be changing over soon. Almost all sleet now here close to downtown :(

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Veronica, what part of Wilson Co.? are you in?  I'm right here off 95 and we have a lot more than 3 inches.

I am near Recreation Park w the train...I really couldn't a great measurement out on the deck so it may be a little more but it averaged to around 3. Wind has really been whipping so I'm sure that's not helping. Definitely almost all sleet now. Still some big flakes mixed tho.

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Who, everyone that lives in the mtns?  I think it's inland too, if inland means over HAT, but if inland means over Jacksonville, ain't happening.  One reason I have hardly posted in the storm thread, if you disagree with the Euro it's treated like blasphemy.  The Euro actually ticked east a little and the deform band was east too, should be interesting to see how this turns out.  I think we will get 3-4" with some ice, nice storm for us, if we stay all frozen this will be one of my favorite storms in quite a long time (although this is the first storm in quite a long time :-)

 

Yes, the Euro has ticked east some.  It was hammering Mt. Airy and the northern foothills with the deformation band yesterday, which it's now mostly moved over the N/NW Piedmont.

 

 

How much of the deformation band makes it into the triangle?

 

 

Not much.  A few tenths of QPF or so.

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Yes, the Euro has ticked east some.  It was hammering Mt. Airy and the northern foothills with the deformation band yesterday, which it's now mostly moved over the N/NW Piedmont.

 

 
 

 

Not much.  A few tenths of QPF or so.

 

 

 

Also that comment PB made. Thats true. I'll go against the euro. I'll go ahead say it again.... No way the SLP is hitting land other than FL. The inverted trough axis off the coast of Jacksonville, FL GA, SC,NC simply does not support it.

 

With that said. Thats the reason why probably of the so call tick east of the euro like SJ said is occuring. 

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huge bust so far in the upstate.....so far only 0.13 inch of liquid at the GSP airport as of 2:52. and nothing currently falling

 

Most models showed us with over 1.25 total for the storm. Radar has a huge dry slot right now.

 

I realize that this storm has not wrapped up yet but all projected totals are ramping down. Very dissapointing.

 

edit.....sleeting like crazy.....NO SNOW FOR YOU!!

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I dunno...I had switched over for a while and now I'm back to pretty heavy snow. Keep switching back and forth. There is still sleet mixed in but when the rates pick up, I'm going back into at least half and half territory.

 

Edit - back to moderate sleet.

I hope so. :)

I agree with Cary, too. I hope we get dry-slotted at just the right time to avoid the ZR.

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I live on Glenwood in Raleigh. My son is towing folks up the hill to St. Mary's in his 96 5 speed Disco. The RWD BMWs and Mercedes are the ones having the hardest time. Things are moving albeit slowly. I think many of these are the folks who had to stay at work (banks, grocery stores, etc..). If the sleet / ice come in on top of this they are screwed. Head east low pressure....head east.

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huge bust so far in the upstate.....so far only 0.13 inch of liquid at the GSP airport as of 2:52. and nothing currently falling

Most models showed us with over 1.25 total for the storm. Radar has a huge dry slot right now.

I realize that this storm has not wrapped up yet but all projected totals are ramping down. Very dissapointing.

edit.....sleeting like crazy.....NO SNOW FOR YOU!!

I'm not giving up yet but it's gonna have to really come down over here in Oconee to get to 8" which is the low end of what we were forecast. Heck I'd be happy with 5 or 6".

A nice deform band with 2" per hour rates would do the trick.

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Little over 3" at my house in Apex, absolutely pouring snow, we might get to 4".  Went out sledding with the kids. Was surprised how fluffy the snow is, thought it would be much wetter.

 

Are you "ALL IN" yet, packbacker?  Looks like you will probably end up with at least 5 inches of accumulations.  Do you think you can fight off the freezing rain?

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RAH just updated this for tomorrow.

 

THU: ROUND TWO. TEH AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION HEAD OVER THE MID-
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WELL-DEVELOPED AS A
TRAILING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AMPLIFIES SOUTHEASTWARD AND MERGES/CAPTURES THE LEAD ONE(S) OVER THE
GULF COAST...AND THE ASSOCIATED STRONG DYNAMIC MID-UPPER LEVEL
FORCING FOR ASCENT OVERSPREAD THE STILL SATURATED LINGERING CAD
REGIME OVER CENTRAL NC. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED PROGRESSIVELY
WETTER...PARTICULARLY THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF...WITH AN ADDITIONAL
ONE INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT OVER THE NW PIEDMONT TO HALF IN THE
TRIANGLE TO TENTH OR SO IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. NOT READY TO
BITE OFF ON SUCH AGGRESSIVE TOTALS GIVEN THAT THIS FORCING WILL BE
LACKING THE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT CHARACTERIZED
BY THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION SHIELD...BUT THE MODELS TRENDS ARE
INDEED ALARMING. WE HAVE FOLLOWED WPC QPF GUIDANCE WHICH INDICATES
ABOUT A THIRD TO HALF OF THE TOTALS OUTLINED ABOVE. MOST OF THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WITH PERHAPS A RAIN/SNOW
MIX IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO
AROUND OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING. AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW
WILL CONSEQUENTLY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE PIEDMONT
...RANGING TO A

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