snowinnc Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 HRRR has 1-2" per hour snow from about 5-8" for RDU, we probably flip to ice around 8-9pm than maybe to rain about midnight, will see. I do remember that model doing very well because it kept reducing my totals so I chose to ignore it. Every other model kept saying 4-6 while the HRRR said 1-2. It was spot on with my 1 1/2 inches. I was pretty irritated then but now I would be thrilled! Let's go HRRR!!! Bring it home to RDU!!! I'm keeping the faith! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Looks like the GFS has the heaviesy totals just to our west. Can't see the county map yet. I can't tell if it moved east or west. Just saw the county map Wow posted. The gradient running through Wake would definitely imply rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 From reports of where snow has started in NC, it sounds like it gets heavy pretty quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 God I can't wait to strap on my snowboard and ride the huge hill I've been staring at, running on, and longing to ride since I moved into this house a year ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 From reports of where snow has started in NC, it sounds like it gets heavy pretty quickly. Indeed. It been snowing for about 45 minutes and I have 0.85" on my freshly cleared car. It's getting very heavy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 That be me, lol I've lived through many snow busts and when you talking 12+ inches it's really high potential busts. that's just mo! I believe it when I stick a ruler in the ground to measure. lol Just call me skeptical.......... \ EDIT: I'm ready to enjoy, got kids sleds ready gas in the Polaris Ranger ready to ride!!! Im with you Frothy! Your concerns are warranted, don't mind the internet smarta**es. Heck last time I had a winter storm warning we didn't see a flake! Haven't had 5" of snow in 3 years. So when you're in the bullseye youre expectations are tempered but you want to believe so badly. Hopefully it will pan out for us in the snow drought zones! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Office closing at 12. Whoop whoop! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Im with you Frothy! Your concerns are warranted, don't mind the internet smarta**es. Heck last time I had a winter storm warning we didn't see a flake! Haven't had 5" of snow in 3 years. So when you're in the bullseye youre expectations are tempered but you want to believe so badly. Hopefully it will pan out for us in the snow drought zones! Everyone is right. The storm isn't busting, it's right on schedule. However, some people will come in low and some will overperform and it's just about impossible to tell until it happens. I really don't think anyone in the modeled sweet spot will come out with less than 6-8" though and that's not so bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherheels Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Hey Brick - You going to the game tonight? Seeing some really cheap tix on craigslist... lower levels for $75... not too bad. Of course you'll probably miss the heart of the storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Hey Brick - You going to the game tonight? Seeing some really cheap tix on craigslist... lower levels for $75... not too bad. Of course you'll probably miss the heart of the storm... I wish. I don't want to risk the drive. And that's still a little expensive for my blood. Hopefully, I'll be able to watch it at home, as long as they still have the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Well that's per HRRR, RAP has us flipping to rain around 7pm (yikes). HRRR has rain right through Wake County about 10-11pm, but it's very close to being frzn. Will see, I do think we go to rain for a bit, hopefully not long or hopefully we dry slot. Don't believe the RAP for surface temps. It's got us getting above 35 at hour 4 and it's not going to come close. Current temp at RDU is 27 with a dew point of 10. No rain tonight, if anything a horrible ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thess Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I've been being a good lurker and not posting due to my near total ignorance. However, watching the storm approach, I could really use some advice... ...is noon too early to start drinking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'm convinced the Triad is going to get hammered. The RGEM, NAM, and GFS have raised my confidence. The Euro was amazing, but borderline last night and I expect it to tick east here in a couple hours (not that it really matters). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Isn't the RAP usually pretty useless for temperatures? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Hiatt Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I've been being a good lurker and not posting due to my near total ignorance. However, watching the storm approach, I could really use some advice... ...is noon too early to start drinking? No....noon is not too early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Isn't the RAP usually pretty useless for temperatures? Yes, good for h5 trends under 12hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Ok, thanks to all mets and non mets for explaining the eroding precip shield!! Because exactly as stated, blossoming precip all over GA and upstate! Back to go time. 12 inches or bust! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ekman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Hey Brick - You going to the game tonight? Seeing some really cheap tix on craigslist... lower levels for $75... not too bad. Of course you'll probably miss the heart of the storm... I'm hoping it's another "students admitted with ID" game, like the Maryland game back in 2000. Heels will need all the help they can get tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'm hoping it's another "students admitted with ID" game, like the Maryland game back in 2000. Heels will need all the help they can get tonight. I was thinking the same thing. That would be awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Just saw the county map Wow posted. The gradient running through Wake would definitely imply rain. The GFS temps are fine, but for example, it has RDU with 0.7" of precip, all frozen before 12z tomorrow, front end 2-3" rest sleet/frzn. For GSO it only has 0.85" of precip before 12z tomorrow then it has another 0.8" of precip after 12z tomorrow, so half the precip they get is tomorrow afternoon. We get another 0.5" of precip tomorrow afternoon too. Maybe the GFS is correct with lighter precip for all of us through 12z tomorrow. RGEM has about 1.2" of precip for us through 12z tomorrow, so not that far off from the GFS, usually the lighter precip models win. Will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I've been being a good lurker and not posting due to my near total ignorance. However, watching the storm approach, I could really use some advice... ...is noon too early to start drinking? Hell naw its five o clock somewhere. Plan on catching me a good buzz too and watch the flakage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'm hoping it's another "students admitted with ID" game, like the Maryland game back in 2000. Heels will need all the help they can get tonight. I am considering just showing up. I know it's the Duke game but if no one is there the scalpers will have to unload the tickets cheaply. It would be a rough drive from here though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
norcarolinian Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'm convinced the Triad is going to get hammered. The RGEM, NAM, and GFS have raised my confidence. The Euro was amazing, but borderline last night and I expect it to tick east here in a couple hours (not that it really matters). I am gonna hold you to this man!! btw thanks for keeping it real for all of us GSO/INT folks!! greatly appreciated! (packfan too) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I am gonna hold you to this man!! btw thanks for keeping it real for all of us GSO/INT folks!! greatly appreciated! (packfan too) There are a handful of folks whose posts I look for because they make good contributions to our forum. I could name several, but James is one of them for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ekman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I am considering just showing up. I know it's the Duke game but if no one is there the scalpers will have to unload the tickets cheaply. It would be a rough drive from here though... Doesn't help you if you're not a student, but IC just retweeted this: Retweeted by InsideCarolina Sherrell D. McMillan @rellevent21 1h For UNC students RT .@TylerTew: Due to weather keeping ticket holders away, the standby line will guarantee you a spot in the Dean Dome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 There are a handful of folks whose posts I look for because they make good contributions to our forum. I could name several, but James is one of them for me. I second this! Thanks alot for everything you do for us in the triad area! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Can you believe the way the precip is bending around the triangle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'm about to get clobbered in just a few minutes....maybe half an hour? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Typical RAP bias after 12 hours, you can see as new RAP model runs come in theSLP is ticking farther east each run, I think once it gets inside 9 hours it will be fairly accurate, IMO. 15z RAP at roughly midnight 11pm tonight, has SLP off the coast in the Atlantic 10z RAP at 11p tonight had the SLP tracking just NW of Hilton Head Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldamon Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Can you believe the way the precip is bending around the triangle? Force field is about to fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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