NEGa Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 definitely has begun. moderate snow, winds gusting to 14 mph, blowing the snow off the roof (that fell earlier today). temp is 27 and dewpoints are dropping too edited to add: was able to reach my dish to brush it off some this afternoon for satellite tv. just lost signal again and cant climb up there at this point....music time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 definitely has begun. moderate snow, winds gusting to 14 mph, blowing the snow off the roof (that fell earlier today). temp is 27 and dewpoints are dropping too edited to add: was able to reach my dish to brush it off some this afternoon for satellite tv. just lost signal again and cant climb up there at this point....music time LIght icing has begun here, and at 3 am, KCHS has dropped to 32 as well. Light ZR currently here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 LIght icing has begun here, and at 3 am, KCHS has dropped to 32 as well. Light ZR currently here. thats wild man! isnt this your second one within a couple of weeks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
knee deep to a grasshopper Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 SItting here in the catbird seat waiting to get CRUSHED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Coming to you live at 4:50, because my roommate is the loudest snorer ever. It's pretty commonplace for me to be up 1-2 hours every night from this crap. Radar looks good. What a moist storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Coming to you live at 4:50, because my roommate is the loudest snorer ever. It's pretty commonplace for me to be up 1-2 hours every night from this crap. Radar looks good. What a moist storm. Just don't look at the GFS or NAM. Go all-in with the 4dvar models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Just don't look at the GFS or NAM. Go all-in with the 4dvar models. I don't know James, looks like we will have to contend with that warm nose. How bad is the nam and gfs? Lots of freezing rain? Looking for the worst case scenario to be prepared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I don't know James, looks like we will have to contend with that warm nose. How bad is the nam and gfs? Lots of freezing rain? Looking for the worst case scenario to be prepared. The 06z NAM is a total disaster. It's way warmer than every other model at 850 mb and barely gives us any snow before the raging sleet storm. Given that it had us as all-snow at 00z, I find that hard to believe. The 06z GFS appears to be suffering from some horrible convective feedback issues which just destroy the QPF field. I would not at all be surprised if we change over to sleet for a few hours, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 GOOD MORNING VIET NAM!!! Oh wait. Sorry. Flashback. Good morning anyway. Lets get ready to rock and roll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Also, Pack, the 06z RGEM hammers us and looks almost identical to the Euro. I'll still split the Euro/RGEM vs. UKMET track and call it a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The 06z NAM is a total disaster. It's way warmer than every other model at 850 mb and barely gives us any snow before the raging sleet storm. Given that it had us as all-snow at 00z, I find that hard to believe. The 06z GFS appears to be suffering from some horrible convective feedback issues which just destroy the QPF field. I would not at all be surprised if we change over to sleet for a few hours, though. There is no flippin way qpf is going to be diminished with how the radar looks right now. Nam looks plain wonky, gfs looks like takes a nice track, I mean 998 off ilm? Looks nice, but you're right it diminishes qpf and I don't buy that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 There is no flippin way qpf is going to be diminished with how the radar looks right now. Nam looks plain wonky, gfs looks like takes a nice track, I mean 998 off ilm? Looks nice, but you're right it diminishes qpf and I don't buy that.Cheer yourself up with the 06z RGEM. It even gets Raleigh with the deformation band.BTW, JBurns, you missed the most epic Euro run I've ever seen for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Cheer yourself up with the 06z RGEM. It even gets Raleigh with the deformation band. BTW, JBurns, you missed the most epic Euro run I've ever seen for our area. I'm on my phone right now, is there any good place to look at it on my phone? While were on the topic, what exactly is the rgem? It sounds like it's been accurate, I just don't know exactly what it is/who makes it. Sounds related to the ggem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
honeygrl Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 It looks/sounds like mostly sleet here in Athens for now. The sleet was so loud on my window that i couldn't sleep. Any chance it could all turn to snow before daylight and end up with us getting mostly snow and sleet and not all that yuck freezing rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'm on my phone right now, is there any good place to look at it on my phone? While were on the topic, what exactly is the rgem? It sounds like it's been accurate, I just don't know exactly what it is/who makes it. Sounds related to the ggem? It is the regional version of the GGEM that goes out to 48 hours. Meteocentre has good maps for it. I would link you, but I'm also on my phone and when I try to paste something in the post box on this forum, it always screws it up for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Also, Pack, the 06z RGEM hammers us and looks almost identical to the Euro. I'll still split the Euro/RGEM vs. UKMET track and call it a day. Yeah, the GFS fizzled the precip, even though the heaviest axis looks to come up I-85 between CLT and GSO and on NE from there. The precip should be exploding at that point. Looks like we know the track looks to be inside of Hatteras around the sounds it looks like. It looked last night like the canadian stayed OFFSHORE. I don't think we will see a drastic shift now. Our temperatures are really cold, low to mid 20's during our event. We are in for a show! Get some thundersnow and there will be some insane rates. Bring it on!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nckhawk Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Thoughts and prayers for those under ZR siege. Wanted to ask for recommendations on the best site for low pressure track? I've gone as far as watching the sea buoy reports but wanted to know if anyone has rolled the data up into a nice visual web-based product that is available to the general public? Best of luck to everyone in the coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Cheer yourself up with the 06z RGEM. It even gets Raleigh with the deformation band. BTW, JBurns, you missed the most epic Euro run I've ever seen for our area. I was here and read your posts. Even if I had missed it I don't mind missing a model run. There are worse things to miss. For instance. After staying up all night there is a 60% chance you will be asleep at the height of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 It is the regional version of the GGEM that goes out to 48 hours. Meteocentre has good maps for it. I would link you, but I'm also on my phone and when I try to paste something in the post box on this forum, it always screws it up for some reason. Ok, thanks. I'll just take your word that the 6z is fantastic haha. I'm pretty conked as far as model watching is concerned over the past 2-3 weeks. Bring on radar trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
10below Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Looks like dry air is eating up the precip in this area. I don't like the look of the radar right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Ok, time for some banter! 1) I don't understand the validity of the SREF models. There is so much variability. With about 6 hours before the storm starts, the members range from .28" to 15" of snow. The spread between them is pretty even as well. Its not like the .28 or 15 are gross outliers. The math teacher in me can't figure out how this can be used to make a meaningful forecast. Look at the EPS members which are strongly correlated to each other and tell me how the SREF plumes are not a joke! 2) I can't stand when the TV Weatherfolks hedge there bets by only showing one particular model. Worse is when they stop the animation before the storm is over so they don't show the entire totals! I would rather not show any models at all if you are not going to tell the whole story. Seems very misleading to me. Now that the NWS has jumped in with high accumulation forecasts, the TV folks are showing the entire run. That's all for now....I hope I don't how to rant about warm noses later! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Would like to add a #3 to packfan: It is absolutely frustrating when people post the entire discussion from a particular NWS office. Just post the important parts instead of just copy and pasting the entire discussion. It's not like we can't go and read it ourselves. I just dislike all of the unnecessary scrolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
10below Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Ok, time for some banter! 1) I don't understand the validity of the SREF models. There is so much variability. With about 6 hours before the storm starts, the members range from .28" to 15" of snow. The spread between them is pretty even as well. Its not like the .28 or 15 are gross outliers. The math teacher in me can't figure out how this can be used to make a meaningful forecast. Look at the EPS members which are strongly correlated to each other and tell me how the SREF plumes are not a joke! 2) I can't stand when the TV Weatherfolks hedge there bets by only showing one particular model. Worse is when they stop the animation before the storm is over so they don't show the entire totals! I would rather not show any models at all if you are not going to tell the whole story. Seems very misleading to me. Now that the NWS has jumped in with high accumulation forecasts, the TV folks are showing the entire run. That's all for now....I hope I don't how to rant about warm noses later! Forget the models... look at the current radar. Precip is getting dried up on the current radar in the triad . That may change but right now I dont look for this to be a huge hit around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Forget the models... look at the current radar. Precip is getting dried up on the current radar in the triad . That may change but right now I dont look for this to be a huge hit around here. #4) Jumping off cliffs because it's not currently snowing is also pretty annoying, especially when it isn't even modeled or predicted to start for several more hours in the Triad. Calm down and relax. Just because it isn't snowing currently at your house, doesn't mean the storm is a bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Would like to add a #3 to packfan: It is absolutely frustrating when people post the entire discussion from a particular NWS office. Just post the important parts instead of just copy and pasting the entire discussion. It's not like we can't go and read it ourselves. I just dislike all of the unnecessary scrolling. this! And the same ones get posted multiple times. Especially the rah afd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 GOOD MORNING VIET NAM!!! Oh wait. Sorry. Flashback. Good morning anyway. Lets get ready to rock and roll. Don't you mean,,,Good morning civil war!??jkGood luck today! Sleet is going to temper my run for a personal best snow, but 6-12+ of sleet and snow, I will take! Yes it is agonizing being on the extreme northern edge of the precip shiel now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
10below Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 #4) Jumping off cliffs because it's not currently snowing is also pretty annoying, especially when it isn't even modeled or predicted to start for several more hours in the Triad. Calm down and relax. Just because it isn't snowing currently at your house, doesn't mean the storm is a bust. Never said it was a bust, but looking at current radar it does look as if alot of the precip trying to build up here is getting eat up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Forget the models... look at the current radar. Precip is getting dried up on the current radar in the triad . That may change but right now I dont look for this to be a huge hit around here. Well, the models and radar currently match, so it's a little early to be be calling it a bust. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Never said it was a bust, but looking at current radar it does look as if alot of the precip trying to build up here is getting eat up. Please re-read the part where I said it isn't even modeled to start for several more hours in the triad. This storm is evolving how we all thought t would. The only reason you don't have snow falling is because the precipitation just hasn't made it's way that far north, YET. It's not a dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 this! And the same ones get posted multiple times. Especially the rah afd. I agree. I did post the one from Raleigh yesterday afternoon. I was the first to post it, trimmed it to only the discussion of the storm, and bolded the important sentences. Unlike others, I read every post in the thread, so I would have enough sense to delete it if it had already been posted. I have to do that sometimes when others post a graphic before I do. Folks should read everything before posting... It's going to be a crazy day!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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