raysum Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 QPF Totals: GSO: 2.0" (probably all-snow, but it's very borderline for a few hours) INT: 2.0" (probably all-snow) MWK: 2.2" (Big Frosty is crushed......) GSP: 1.7-2.0" (All-snow) CLT: ~2.0" (Definitely mixing, but still crushed) RDU: 1.5" (First ~0.6" is snow) CAE: 2.0" This is the greatest Euro run of my life. Even if it's overdone........ Wow Copied from forecast and discussion. I can only hope for that here in Spartanburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Euro pings me a couple hours between 30-36..honestly about 20 miles to my west max it would stay all snow. Guessing my 850s are.5 + maybe less than that between 30-36. Not going to complain, at least it isn't freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Okay, Raleigh gets 0.6" QPF or so before the changeover. 850s warm to 7C by hr 36, but crash back below 0C by hr 42. Insane... Raleigh does flip to 35 and rain after that... Does it ever switch back over to snow in Raleigh or does it get hit at all by the deformation band? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The euro is the most incredible model run I've seen in my lifetime for snow in WNC, I'm speechless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Does it ever switch back over to snow in Raleigh or does it get hit at all by the deformation band? It does, but the heaviest portion of the deformation band pivots over GSO over towards Mt. Airy, so Raleigh doesn't get a lot from that. Surface temperatures are kind of iffy by then, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 It does, but the heaviest portion of the deformation band pivots over GSO over towards Mt. Airy, so Raleigh doesn't get a lot from that. Surface temperatures are kind of iffy by then, too. Thanks and one more question any idea on how much ZR before we switch over to rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 so the cad warm bias Euro gets my highest panel of 850 to a whopping 1......I will freakin' take it. Hoping that deform band pivots just far enough back to include MBY in the boom... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jalba Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Anyone get the QPF for HKY on the Euro? I did see the Snow map on the other topic, which showed 16" which for HKY im pretty sure stays all snow. Just wanted to see the liquid amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The euro is the most incredible model run I've seen in my lifetime for snow in WNC, I'm speechless No doubt! Buries my parents up in Northern Catawba County, shoot all of the county just about, in 16". If winds are again modeled strong, there will be widespread damage to trees and powerlines even with it being all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterhawk Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 It does, but the heaviest portion of the deformation band pivots over GSO over towards Mt. Airy, so Raleigh doesn't get a lot from that. Surface temperatures are kind of iffy by then, too. Curious if you're seeing deformation still over GA prior to upstream? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Hour 33 on the Euro is really warm at 850, at least on the wundermap. It is like 1C in Winston, 2-3C in High Point and Greensboro, and 4C in Burlington. It quickly cools by hour 36 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 what's the word on wind in Central NC during the show? I am fired all the way up about this storm but will be PISSED if I lose power right before the dook/Heels game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Dammit I was about to go to sleep as soon as I saw the euro!!! No chance now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Thanks and one more question any idea on how much ZR before we switch over to rain? Not much... there's not a lot of icing that I can see in E NC. The warm nose is piping hot in the mid-levels (850s of 7-8C at one point). A lot of areas get icing, but temperatures warm into the mid-30s fairly quickly with that monstrous low pressure system just off to the east (and the 850 low passing well to the west). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 How much of a warm bias does the euro have usually in cold air damming situations if any? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 LOL, I guess DT went to bed. I was hoping for an *ALEEEEEEEEET* *ALEEEEEEEEEEEEEET* after that Euro run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterhawk Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Friday night possible event here too; we'd be excited about that 1-3" possibility but that's chump change now.. WOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 LOL, I guess DT went to bed. I was hoping for an *ALEEEEEEEEET* *ALEEEEEEEEEEEEEET* after that Euro run. he must have lol. either that or threw his computer out his window earlier i was thinking about trying to sleep a bit but looked out a little while ago and flakes were already flying ahead of schedule. thinking sleeping about now is probably not likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 They irony of watching curling and waiting for an ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 They irony of watching curling and waiting for an ice storm. Hopefully you weren't watching the US team lose to Britain by a landslide...that was depressing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Hopefully you weren't watching the US team lose to Britain by a landslide...that was depressing... How the hell can you give up 7 points on one end?!?! They only throw 8 stones per end!!! Terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I think I'm going to stay up for RAH's discussion. What are they going to make of the Euro? I need to be up, anyways. I'm trying to finish up my Statement of Purpose for graduate school. I should have been working on it for the last few hours, but then the Euro happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I think this place might be a lot quieter tomorrow as grids start to go across SC and GA Shame.....would be fun to have everyone enjoy this together. Just hold it together for the UNC/Dook game TAPCO, you hear me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Well, I was able to get 2 hours of sleep anyways. I woke up, checked the radar and that’s game over for my sleep. Looks like it will start here in the next 30 minutes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I think this place might be a lot quieter tomorrow as grids start to go across SC and GA Shame.....would be fun to have everyone enjoy this together. Just hold it together for the UNC/Dook game TAPCO, you hear me? ?? Well, I was able to get 2 hours of sleep anyways. I woke up, checked the radar and that’s game over for my sleep. Looks like it will start here in the next 30 minutes! at least you were smart and got a little sleep i looked outside right before laying down and saw the first flakes starting. that did it for me. it started quite a bit ahead of schedule we are into stead light snow now, and i am stoked for the heavier returns near gainesville to make here (should be not too long.) i hope whatever it is makes thur morning unworkable around here. i am going to need to crash at some point haha what is yalls temp over that way now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 ?? power grids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 ?? at least you were smart and got a little sleep i looked outside right before laying down and saw the first flakes starting. that did it for me. it started quite a bit ahead of schedule we are into stead light snow now, and i am stoked for the heavier returns near gainesville to make here (should be not too long.) i hope whatever it is makes thur morning unworkable around here. i am going to need to crash at some point haha what is yalls temp over that way now? I’m sitting at 31 over here. I’m hoping that we will drop a little more once the snow gets cranking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtomlinwx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 We are getting a better handle on things and I feel pretty confident in this forecast for most areas. Unfortunately, Raleigh is still in a position very difficult to forecast, but I give my best guess below and I feel relatively good about it.Raleigh: Snow begins between 11AM and 2PM tomorrow. 2-4" of snow accumulates before switching to freezing rain sometime tomorrow evening/night. Freezing rain falls through the night. Ice accumulations between 0.25-0.5" This is enough to down power lines. Freezing rain may change to plain old rain for awhile, but, honestly, I don't see this happening, at least not for long enough to make a huge difference. Storm ends with a quick 1-3" of snow on the backside. Precip finishes by mid-late afternoon Thursday.Statesville: Snow starts between 10AM and 1PM tomorrow and continues through at least noon Thursday. Some sleet may mix in overnight Wednesday, but total accumulations should be between 8-12"Charlotte: Snow begins between 9AM and Noon. 3-6" of snow accumulates before switching to sleet and freezing rain. Up to 0.25" of freezing rain and 1" of sleet expected. An additional 1-2" of snow could occur Thursday before the storm exits by noon.Greensboro: Snow begins between 11AM and 2PM tomorrow. Snow should mix with sleet overnight. Some freezing rain not out of the question. Storm ends as snow and exits by mid-afternoon Thursday 6-10" of snow, Trace-0.2" of freezing rain.Concord: Snow begins between 10 AM and 1PM tomorrow. Snow will mix with sleet and freezing rain overnight. Solid snow returns to end the system by early afternoon Thursday. 4-8" of snow and 0.1-0.25" of freezing rain. Greenville: Plain old rain for most of the system. Some sleet may mix in at onset of precip (around noon).New Bern: Rain. Some sleet could mix in at the beginning (10AM - noon timeframe). Enjoy today's 9" while it lasts!Boone: Snow begins by early-late afternoon and goes strong through Thursday afternoon. 8-12"+Lenoir/Hickory: Snow begins sometime between 10AM and 1PM. Should stay all snow. 8-12" **Let me be clear, this is going to be a major storm for many people. It has been several years since we have seen an event of this magnitude, so please be prepared: **Checklist of things that need to be done by tomorrow at 11AM (should have already been done):1. Fill gas tank2. Get enough food and drinking water to last you for at least 2 days. Remember, if power goes out, you will not be able to prepare many foods, or even heat up a can of soup! Kind of a"duhh," but often overlooked or forgotten.3. Have some cash. Winter storms often affect store's abilities to process credit/debit transactions.4. Have flashlights and fresh batteries. 5. Charge devices, such as cell phones, laptops, etc. 6. Once the storm sets in, stay put. Roads are expected to become extremely dangerous, and in some places, impassable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 power grids. jeesh do i feel sheepish DUH lol I’m sitting at 31 over here. I’m hoping that we will drop a little more once the snow gets cranking. glad you are already below freezing now. should all stick this time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Rut roh ... and so it begins. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0087.html http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0087.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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