jburns Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Thanks for the Feedback guys I actually live in Brown Summit, but work in Fayetteville during the week. I will wait until the morning for a final decison. I am amazed that no one asked what you will be driving. We will argue for hours over a 5 mile difference in a model but don't care about the difference between a Prius and a Hummer when sending someone out into a snowstorm. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Agreed! Just comparing Lanie Popes timing and her estimates were significantly off given the actuals we are seeing on radar. This thing is easily 4-6 hours early....or...this is the finger we've been waiting for? It seems every event, winter weather wise always starts earlier and winds down earlier than models lead you to believe. I'm not hallucinating when I say this. I've seen it countless times. I'll bet by sunrise snow is falling in Montgomery, stanly counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 NW of GSO, 30-40 miles CMC during the height of the storm http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2014021200/I_nw_r1_EST_2014021200_025.png Classic setup. Parent high in favored position. Low pressure organizing in the GOM poised to move up the east coast and deepen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I am amazed that no one asked what you will be driving. We will argue for hours over a 5 mile difference in a model but don't care about the difference between a Prius and a Hummer when sending someone out into a snowstorm. lol Very true, I should have said I'd be comfortable driving it in my awd suv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 We might just be getting the finger! If we get an extra 4 or 5 hours of snow / sleet from this finger, but can only help totals. Just imagine, you get the finger first and deform band to finish, epic! New meaning to giving you the finger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 It seems every event, winter weather wise always starts earlier and winds down earlier than models lead you to believe. I'm not hallucinating when I say this. I've seen it countless times. I'll bet by sunrise snow is falling in Montgomery, stanly counties. Agreed......... As a side note, wouldn't it be nice if this busted in the positive direction? 850s go colder... QPF ends up higher... I don't know the last time we had a positive bust here or in much of the NC Piedmont. Maybe Snowmageddon IMBY as I got 2-3" from that on the front-end, which I believe wasn't forecasted well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 thanks superjames- you kick ***. I've been waiting for your posts about GSO peeps throughout this entire chase. Looks like us were in for a classic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 It seems every event, GOOD winter weather wise always starts earlier and winds down earlier than models lead you to believe. I'm not hallucinating when I say this. I've seen it countless times. I'll bet by sunrise snow is falling in Montgomery, stanly counties. just a slight edit lol. seems like the ones that end up being pretty good and producing come in early...and hopefully this one does to help keep the "its a bust" freakout posts to a min. even when a bust is being proclaimed before the storm gets going lol Agreed......... As a side note, wouldn't it be nice if this busted in the positive direction? 850s go colder... QPF ends up higher... I don't know the last time we had a positive bust here or in much of the NC Piedmont. Maybe Snowmageddon IMBY as I got 2-3" from that on the front-end, which I believe wasn't forecasted well... the last two snow events over performed in parts of n ga to a degree. we just need a storm that is an over producer for everyone. if this storm gets cranked like all those "rain and 33" storms with 1-2" qpf we should be in for a wild ride Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Busick Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I am amazed that no one asked what you will be driving. We will argue for hours over a 5 mile difference in a model but don't care about the difference between a Prius and a Hummer when sending someone out into a snowstorm. lol Jeep wrangler 3 inch lift with 35 inch tires 4wd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
newcomb68 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Agreed......... As a side note, wouldn't it be nice if this busted in the positive direction? 850s go colder... QPF ends up higher... I don't know the last time we had a positive bust here or in much of the NC Piedmont. Maybe Snowmageddon IMBY as I got 2-3" from that on the front-end, which I believe wasn't forecasted well... What is your temp reading there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seasonsoflove Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Hoping we don't bust for more! 1"+ ZR is more than enough. Not gonna lie, guys. I'm kind of scared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 does seem to be a little of schedule. was trying to figure out timing for a possible nap. gave up on that idea and will just zone in the chair in front of the fire lol. what is your dewpoint? its below freezing here, so you are close to that magical mark as well. if your dewpoint is a little lower when the precip arrives should be frozen.Unfortunately , my dp is 31. Supposedly we are going to get the temps to fall tomorrow to mid- upper 20s with the strengthening storm and heavy precip! Also 20-30mph winds! Will be a memorable day, unless its just rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 What is your temp reading there? I don't have a home thermometer, but the airport is 25/14 and I doubt I'm more than a degree or two off that (I'm close to the airport). This is a time where I'm glad I live on the western edge of Guilford County! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Hoping we don't bust for more! 1"+ ZR is more than enough. Not gonna lie, guys. I'm kind of scared. you will be fine. i have been in one of those storms. living in a house, i will admit i didnt like losing a lot of trees. it was a mess for a while afterwards. power was out for about 4 days. other than no coffee ha just made it a party and jammed out to music lol (i do have a couple of fireplaces) being a wx weenie i will also admit while i would prefer that much ice away from mby it was the most awesome ice storm i have ever been in. that is a boat load of ice and the sights and sounds were amazing. Unfortunately , my dp is 31. Supposedly we are going to get the temps to fall tomorrow to mid- upper 20s with the strengthening storm and heavy precip! Also 20-30mph winds! Will be a memorable day, unless its just rain! from what i have seen i would be stunned if its rain at this point - you are close but also dont have but less than a degree to drop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 This overrides a blizzard warning in the graphical... BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDCIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGESOUTH CAROLINA EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY COLUMBIA SOUTHCAROLINARELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC1054 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE SOUTHCAROLINA EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY COLUMBIA SOUTH CAROLINA.A STATE OF EMERGENCY IS IN EFFECT-THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASISSUED SEVERE WINTER WEATHER ALERTS FOR MOST OF SOUTH CAROLINA,PREDICTING SNOW, SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. POWER OUTAGES ANDDANGEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY. MONITOR LOCAL MEDIA FORCHANGES IN CONDITIONS. SOUTH CAROLINA DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETYAND THE DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION URGE MOTORISTS TO STAY OFFTHE ROADWAYS. IN THE EVENT OF AN EMERGENCY CALL *HP OR 911. FORTHE STATUS OF GOVERNMENT OFFICES STATEWIDE VISIT SCEMD.ORG.$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
newcomb68 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I don't have a home thermometer, but the airport is 25/14 and I doubt I'm more than a degree or two off that (I'm close to the airport). This is a time where I'm glad I live on the western edge of Guilford County! I'm off Summit & Cone area...about 12 miles east of the airport. Hoping we get it big here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Agreed......... As a side note, wouldn't it be nice if this busted in the positive direction? 850s go colder... QPF ends up higher... I don't know the last time we had a positive bust here or in much of the NC Piedmont. Maybe Snowmageddon IMBY as I got 2-3" from that on the front-end, which I believe wasn't forecasted well... It's really freakin' cold here right now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Agreed......... As a side note, wouldn't it be nice if this busted in the positive direction? 850s go colder... QPF ends up higher... I don't know the last time we had a positive bust here or in much of the NC Piedmont. Maybe Snowmageddon IMBY as I got 2-3" from that on the front-end, which I believe wasn't forecasted well... You and me along with burns Vegas and some others are sitting right on that all snow v/s sleet mixing in line. I'm hoping for a nudge in the positive direction. Qpf and surface temps are not going to be an issue. It's our temps upstairs. If we get lucky and avoid the mixing issue then this will end up in the history conversations with Feb 2004, and Jan 2000 for our area. You have to smell the rain and hear the pingers in order to land the jackpot. Notice Big Frosty is sleeping easily tonight along with pilot and power stroke. Of course power stroke is about to rake in the dough big time over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I have a good feeling these "higher" predicted totals may be on the conservative side as well for a good portion of locations who may be on the edge of the ip/zr-sn line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 You and me along with burns Vegas and some others are sitting right on that all snow v/s sleet mixing in line. I'm hoping for a nudge in the positive direction. Qpf and surface temps are not going to be an issue. It's our temps upstairs. If we get lucky and avoid the mixing issue then this will end up in the history conversations with Feb 2004, and Jan 2000 for our area. You have to smell the rain and hear the pingers in order to land the jackpot. Notice Big Frosty is sleeping easily tonight along with pilot and power stroke. Of course power stroke is about to rake in the dough big time over the next few days. I doubt PS is sleeping tonight. Probably hooking plows and loading trucks as fast as he can. He'll be scraping lots two and three times to keep up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 You and me along with burns Vegas and some others are sitting right on that all snow v/s sleet mixing in line. I'm hoping for a nudge in the positive direction. Qpf and surface temps are not going to be an issue. It's our temps upstairs. If we get lucky and avoid the mixing issue then this will end up in the history conversations with Feb 2004, and Jan 2000 for our area. You have to smell the rain and hear the pingers in order to land the jackpot. Notice Big Frosty is sleeping easily tonight along with pilot and power stroke. Of course power stroke is about to rake in the dough big time over the next few days. You think y'all are sitting on the line? I AM the line lol. If it tick just a hair (and I mean a freakin' hair) east, we are gonna get smoked here in Burlington. Looks like it's going to be a damn good one either way, but with these being so rare, I want the whole shebang. IP line in freakin' Mebane FTW #pray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
newcomb68 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 You think y'all are sitting on the line? I AM the line lol. If it tick just a hair (and I mean a freakin' hair) east, we are gonna get smoked here in Burlington. Looks like it's going to be a damn good one either way, but with these being so rare, I want the whole shebang. IP line in freakin' Mebane FTW #pray That's 34 miles East of my location! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The next presidential election I'll give my vote to the candidate who promises to send the Secretary of State to Europe and have them run their model at 1030 est instead of 100. Then send the Secretary of State to Canada and introduce them to technology that wasn't created in B.C. So we can read those crappy maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I doubt PS is sleeping tonight. Probably hooking plows and loading trucks as fast as he can. He'll be scraping lots two and three times to keep up! Wonder if he'll roll out the old $$ avatar he boasted in 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Radar really starting to fill in LA/AL/MS/GA, GoM tapped, no evidence of convection robbing, KU event on tap... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 alright, someone's gotta do this; so I'll bite. Odds of seeing thundersnow in central NC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The next presidential election I'll give my vote to the candidate who promises to send the Secretary of State to Europe and have them run their model at 1030 est instead of 100. Then send the Secretary of State to Canada and introduce them to technology that wasn't created in B.C. So we can read those crappy maps. alright, someone's gotta do this; so I'll bite. Odds of seeing thundersnow in central NC? I think the odds are pretty high that someone will. Will it be widespread? I don't know. Radar really starting to fill in LA/AL/MS/GA, GoM tapped, no evidence of convection robbing, KU event on tap... I'm surprised you aren't chasing this one (of course, you have to get the time off). Somewhere in the northern foothills or SW VA look to get clobbered. Of course, you all got a good event today, but that warm nose looks piping hot out that way tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I am surprised too James, yours truelly has a 9am court appointment on Friday for a 15 day expired reg / no inspection, WTF. Still may take Thursday off and heads towards Farmville if I can get out early tomorrow, unsure, yeah,this was a big dog, and I missed it, kinda depressed but I have 4" on the ground right now so it takes the edge off. Reality will set in once the totals start coming in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Are the mountains still getting a big hit from the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I am surprised too James, yours truelly has a 9am court appointment on Friday for a 15 day expired reg / no inspection, WTF. Still may take Thursday off and heads towards Farmville if I can get out early tomorrow, unsure, yeah,this was a big dog, and I missed it, kinda depressed but I have 4" on the ground right now so it takes the edge off. Reality will set in once the totals start coming in. I thought about chasing but there was no guarantee I would find someplace that would get more than I am going to get here. So, Momma and I will hunker down and enjoy it together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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