packbacker Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 That's drier than I would have imagined. LOL, that's only 6 hr precip panels, were missing 12+ hours worth of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Haha! Nice! Inexact science, trough axis is going neg ivo the MS, classic position for a HKY - 95 corridor big dog. GoM is open for business based on WV, no evidence of convection robbing in the early stages. Leaf starting to take shape over NW AR, SE OK, and NE TX, track with the hammer laid down, along and north of Mebane - Mt. Airy - Culpepper - DC. SLP track may be a little too far east, but I do feel confident in the circled S, storm will begin to stack vertically in this area and start to deepen rapidly, that will enhance the leaf into western VA. Crippling ZR zone is pretty much a lock form Augusta to Florence, would not wish that on my worst enemy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 LOL, that's only 6 hr precip panels, were missing 12+ hours worth of precip. Yes, I see now. That makes more sense. I've been riding the UKMET for a few days. I figure I might as well ride it all the way home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Uk at 36 Wow look how far S the 540 line is. Maybe the RGEM wasn't wrong about it possibly being wintry precip here Thursday morning. NAM, and Euro almost the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Ride the foreign models boys. Especially euro and euro ensembles, then UK, then Canadian. After the 0z runs tonight finish you have to let go of the globals and start using short range and compare them to current obs. Other words it's now casting time after the oz suite finishes tonight. Don't let the nam drive you crazy at 6z and 12 z tomorrow whether it looks favorable or negative. Best of luck to all. Agree I wouldn't let none of the 0Z model trends worry me. There is a going to be a winter storm. Some ice some snow... but over the last 4 years how many times has storm like this presented itself? This is a miller a snowstorm in the makings. The models are most likely have trouble with the track, features and temp profiles. But all indications for a good storm ahead. Good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Not to pimp my own poll, but vote, this may be a good tool moving forward... Good read too. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42828-se-rsi-category-value/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Yes, I see now. That makes more sense. I've been riding the UKMET for a few days. I figure I might as well ride it all the way home. Can you give some total QPF from the UKIE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 UK just sits and bombs on the MA, hour 60 still snow in central NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 This is such a gross storm, the whole CAD vs the deepening low is going to cause headaches until the very end of the storm. I just hope everyone assumes the worst and prepares. I always like to overestimate the CA depth and strength because CAD is such a problem with the models. They usually are behind with LLV CA and overestimate how quickly WA will develop. If you are fringed or on the border assume the worst and I hope you are prepared. I don't like the way he said this I'm now below freezing at 31 and the moisture is headed this way....yea....I'm posting while I can Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 It's happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Yes, I see now. That makes more sense. I've been riding the UKMET for a few days. I figure I might as well ride it all the way home. This is hour 30 precip, look at the deform band pounding you, RDU probably flips to rain right about now, but we look to dry slot some... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Inexact science, trough axis is going neg ivo the MS, classic position for a HKY - 95 corridor big dog. GoM is open for business based on WV, no evidence of convection robbing in the early stages. Leaf starting to take shape over NW AR, SE OK, and NE TX, track with the hammer laid down, along and north of Mebane - Mt. Airy - Culpepper - DC. SLP track may be a little too far east, but I do feel confident in the circled S, storm will begin to stack vertically in this area and start to deepen rapidly, that will enhance the leaf into western VA. Crippling ZR zone is pretty much a lock form Augusta to Florence, would not wish that on my worst enemy! Sounds about right. Would be better for central NC if the SLP deepened sooner than you show, but there still will be some accumulation I suspect. Nice graphic! Thanks for the description. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 It's happening. Don't get your hopes up to much, these east trends will keep us more frozen, but nothing over 6", I still think 2-4" looks good, with some sleet and than frzn, we probably flip to rain a little bit too until the coastal get north of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 UK just sits and bombs on the MA, hour 60 still snow in central NC. Similar to the rgem which did the sit and spin also. Looks to give parts of virginia massive amounts of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 UK just sits and bombs on the MA, hour 60 still snow in central NC. Is that all snow, or are we torching at all layers of the atmosphere again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 uhhhh, James.......the UKIe still has us getting absolutely crapped on at 0Z FRIDAY. Wow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Nobody look at the Saturday Night - Sunday AM time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 UK just sits and bombs on the MA, hour 60 still snow in central NC. Hour 60??? That's absolutely ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Is that all snow, or are we torching at all layers of the atmosphere again?Pop-up thunderstorms on the backside plz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Is that all snow, or are we torching at all layers of the atmosphere again? LOL, no, we are snow through probably 10pm tomorrow night, per RGEM/UK, then rain for a few hours, hoping we dry slot and then hopefully some wraparound snow to finish us off. So we should see 6-8 hours of snow, if UK and RGEM are right. Hopefully the NAM is on crack with the warm nose. Euro agrees on the front end thump too. The SLP is getting slower each run, hopefully the front end can overproduce for us, but we know how that always works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Pop-up thunderstorms on the backside plz. Haha! Prolly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 This is hour 30 precip, look at the deform band pounding you, RDU probably flips to rain right about now, but we look to dry slot some... This is a classic I-95 & east dry-slot track based on the 850, 50 miles either side, 700mb dry punch is for real, someone has to be the sacrificial lamb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 LOL, no, we are snow through probably 10pm tomorrow night, per RGEM/UK, then rain for a few hours, hoping we dry slot and then hopefully some wraparound snow to finish us off. So we should see 6-8 hours of snow, if UK and RGEM are right. Hopefully the NAM is on crack with the warm nose. Euro agrees on the front end thump too. The SLP is getting slower each run, hopefully the front end can overproduce for us, but we know how that always works out. Cool. That's one heck of a deform band. Maybe Brick gets his 4". I was going to go to bed, but I need to see the CMC now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Nobody look at the Saturday Night - Sunday AM time frame. I noticed that earlier, I don't have the stamina, hopefully it trends N or S or to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 At least with the dry slot it may cut into any freezing rain accrual in some areas. Hell, I'd rather be dry slotted than crippled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 It's new jon, although having the 36h slp and the 48h 850m temps on the same map is a little strange. haha whoops...I was trying to generate the maps by altering the URL instead of the normal fill in the form way, my fault. guess it's bedtime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Well, tried to take a nap from 7-11pm. No dice. With the radar lighting up like a Christmas tree, sleep is futile now. Maybe I'll catch some sleep when the power goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Cool. That's one heck of a deform band. Maybe Brick gets his 4". I was going to go to bed, but I need to see the CMC now. We better wake up to snow on our doorstep! I just want to watch it snow during the day tomorrow for a few hours, give me 2" and I will be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 This is a classic I-95 & east dry-slot track based on the 850, 50 miles either side, 700mb dry punch is for real, someone has to be the sacrificial lamb. I am hoping it reaches us to cut down on the rain we get after midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 We better wake up to snow on our doorstep! I just want to watch it snow during the day tomorrow for a few hours, give me 2" and I will be happy. Agree 100%. When does the CMC come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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