Cold Rain Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 That is ridiculous. 4 inches is on the low side, even with the ice. If they don't think it is going to turn to rain, then the only reason it would be that low is because of less precip, and there is nothing that has indicated that.Let's put a pin in this and come back to it Thursday afternoon. I have a hunch that they're going to turn out more correct than verbatim model output.Also, if the models keep coming in warmer, then it's all going to be a moot point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The models are not making any sense now. No way it is that warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Time to toss the globals and start nowcasting FTW? Yeah definitely .. stick with the short range models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 GFS looks like mostly rain for Raleigh. Also everyone in NC changes over to rain. You somehow got access to control the models didn't you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The models are not making any sense now. No way it is that warm. Maybe they weren't making any sense before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 If this storm doesn't happen soon, my hands going to start shaking like Hitlers, no doubt about it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 WxSouth saying the snow line will be farther south then what the models are showing. I think he's talking about in Mississippi and Alabama if it's the tweet I'm thinking of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A.J.NEGA Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Areas North of 85 had no snow and they went down, plus Gastonia was 11.6 and went down to 8... we sure didn't get 3.6" today Point forecasts taken...but the vast majority of areas from what I can see went down around 3" average which is what fell during the day today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The models are not making any sense now. No way it is that warm.How many times have the models been too cold? I'd bet on them still being too cold. We'll probably be rain tomorrow night this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Final totals for snow. I don't feel like doing ZR/IP. Atlanta 2.92 Charlotte 10.01 Hillsboro 8.2 High Point 9.2 Greenville 11.9 Raleigh 0.1 Durham 1.9 Columbia 0.2 Carrollton 2.51 Roanoke 13.97 Washington DC 10.84 Hickory 10.00 Haywood County 14.09 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Let's put a pin in this and come back to it Thursday afternoon. I have a hunch that they're going to turn out more correct than verbatim model output. Also, if the models keep coming in warmer, then it's all going to be a moot point. The GFS, it actually has more precip for RDU on Thursday night rather than tomorrow. You can tell it's really struggling, none of the ensemble members looks like this, at least the 12z/18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I am going all in with the UK, should be 15 mins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Where is the warm nose? 850s look good for north Georgia. I must be on another planet tonight. I looked at my usual sources and both showed soundings that were very warm aloft. Now i look at them and they are colder again. I don't understand it. They aren't great still but not the "oh sh*t" sounding I know I was looking at earlier. I'm tripping over wtf happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I think he's talking about in Mississippi and Alabama if it's the tweet I'm thinking of. On Facebook he said it was too warm for SC, GA, and eastern NC, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 It is going to suck to have a major/historic winter storm modeled for days, only to give it up within 12 hours of the event. This is what I was initially worried about with the high scooting out ahead of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 damn I wish these worthless snow maps were right for once. It's just cruel to have it show this knowing full well there's no chance of it (well at least if you aren't in the far northern upstate/mountains of georgia) The nam is even more cruel teasing the ice storm hit areas with graphics like this. Bastards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 UK is out, what do you think??? Need better maps, but that looks east to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The low is going to come up the coast and we're going to get a is winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Been out most of the night. Could someone update about my area? It seems like everyone is doom and gloom about it right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Been out most of the night. Could someone update about my area? It seems like everyone is doom and gloom about it right now. What area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 It is going to suck to have a major/historic winter storm modeled for days, only to give it up within 12 hours of the event. This is what I was initially worried about with the high scooting out ahead of the storm. Don't want to get all Brick on you, but someone said earlier that the strengthening low would keep an in-situ cad locked in!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 UK has 850's below for CLT up through GSO and points west throughout, from the crappy maps I have. Better ones will be out in 15 mins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 UK is out, what do you think??? Need better maps, but that looks east to me. Yessiree! Brick FTW? Any idea on temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 What area? Sorry forgot our location was disabled. But its Reidsville about 30 miles north of GSO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The nam better be wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Don't want to get all Brick on you, but someone said earlier that the strengthening low would keep an in-situ cad locked in!? I think so too. But I'm still worried about it. Never comforting to see warming trends as we get close. Don't like the cold air source leaving either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On Facebook he said it was too warm for SC, GA, and eastern NC, too. I found it. I find it fascinating that he uses the rap so much to look for upper air trends. I try to use it for simulated radar and it burns me every single time!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The models are not making any sense now. No way it is that warm. Final call, take it for what its worth, MS Paint... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Sorry forgot our location was disabled. But its Reidsville about 30 miles north of GSO Dude, really, get your shovel ready, if you don't get 10" I would be shocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 GFS is completely full of crap, and it's too close for it anyway. It ain't gonna get that warm kids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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