packbacker Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Wral forecast made me cry tears of pain anguish and disappointment. Ian a weenie. ? What did they say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Question on the CAD that is starting to settle in to NC. Past history from me living in Winston-Salem area is that the dry cold air settles in and when the precip gets here, it takes an hour or two before the atmosphere is dampened and the snow actually hits the ground. Will we see the same thing with this storm ? Was not sure if the heavy wet snow helped to dampen the air sooner. Often yes, but this time the air is fairly well saturated already. My temp is 26º with a 21º dew point. There won't be much virga with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 It's 26/14 here in central NC. You sure? That's a long way away and a lot of moisture between me and you. Plus, it looks like the rain is going to be moderate to heavy at times. Doesn't look to stay on anything very long to give it a chance to freeze. Points east of Atlanta are a different story, but I still don't think it's going to be as bad as its made out to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Hr 36: http://meteocentre.com/models/gemreg_amer_00/P1_GZ_D5_PN_036_0000.gif Hr 39: http://meteocentre.com/models/gemreg_amer_00/P1_GZ_D5_PN_039_0000.gif And then the deformation band hammering ensues... http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=fr&map=na&run=00&mod=gemreg&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemreg&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=039&fixhh=1&hh=042 That looks a little wonky to me. The low was moving north, and then it elongated into two areas before strengthening the southern part of it again. Wild! What kind of totals are we looking at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 That looks a little wonky to me. The low was moving north, and then it elongated into two areas before strengthening the southern part of it again. Wild! What kind of totals are we looking at? Deform band could easily do 1-2" per hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 ? What did they say Going with 2-4 inches do snow for you and then .25 - .50 ZR. If the low tracks west, we could change to rain....but we shouldn't count on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoDa-wx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 You can see the low level clouds coming in from the NE in Charlotte right now which is pretty cool. Western horizon just looks thick, but you look up and can see stars with the low levels whisping by. This is gonna be such a fun storm, been years since we've had a chance at a big one like this. Now I just need my dew point to bottom out...down to 28 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Deform band could easily do 1-2" per hour It means business. Oh and if we bust on snow totals due to mixing, you can blame me for not heading up to Ohio like you asked me too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Hr 36: http://meteocentre.com/models/gemreg_amer_00/P1_GZ_D5_PN_036_0000.gif Hr 39: http://meteocentre.com/models/gemreg_amer_00/P1_GZ_D5_PN_039_0000.gif And then the deformation band hammering ensues... http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=fr&map=na&run=00&mod=gemreg&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemreg&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=039&fixhh=1&hh=042 Check the surface temps. With temps in the upper 30s, I doubt we'll see much hammering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 It means business. Oh and if we bust on snow totals due to mixing, you can blame me for not heading up to Ohio like you asked me too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Check the surface temps. With temps in the upper 30s, I doubt we'll see much hammering. Hoping nobody would notice those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Hoping nobody would notice those. Hoping nobody would notice those. I still understand why the models are warming us up so quickly. I know the CAD breaks down, but there's still precipitation on the cold side of the storm with clouds and a NW wind. It seems strange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I am so relieved to see that run of the rgem. If it went any more west gso would have ended up with junk. I will gladly take my 8" snow and a ton of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I know man, I know. I had to roll the dice. Sorry everyone worrying right now . Bring on the sleet, hard and heavy, if that's what Mother Natures decides to throw our way in one of her fickle fits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 GFS is colder, but it's somewhat alone in that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Nah, I'll just say the RGEM is warm-biased at the surface and toss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Going with 2-4 inches do snow for you and then .25 - .50 ZR. If the low tracks west, we could change to rain....but we shouldn't count on it. What we already knew and thought. The GFS looks identical, but slower, it's amazing how slow it is, if anything it's a hair east of 18z. Don't have temps/precip yet, it looks to dry to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'm probably going to get skewered for writing this, but, I just don't see significant ice accumulation with this storm. The dew points upstream are not very low. My temp has been stationary at 35 for 4 hours now. There is a huge warm layer way beyond 700 mb over me. There is not even any snow forming above. This is mostly plain rain with maybe some ice in the high tree tops of some local hills, maybe. I'm ready to go to work tomorrow. Roads will be wet but otherwise free of ice. Temps, at worst, might dip to 32 but that won't make ice, especially with as warm as it's been lately. I understand the desire to be safe, but come on, back off on the extreme warnings in light of new information. Now, let's talk about flooding, because that might be an actual minor concern. I have been wondering this for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Just a little something for you to watch before you say goodnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Totals go down http://www.weather.gov/images/gsp/brief/STSStormTotalSnow_web.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Looks like RGEM mixes a lot of folks, but still a nice run. Looks like freezing line is running right down the middle of Wake County. Looks like good old rain here in Cola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Going with 2-4 inches do snow for you and then .25 - .50 ZR. If the low tracks west, we could change to rain....but we shouldn't count on it. That is ridiculous. 4 inches is on the low side, even with the ice. If they don't think it is going to turn to rain, then the only reason it would be that low is because of less precip, and there is nothing that has indicated that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTPGiants Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Wife is looking for opinions in Raleigh area about when precip starts. Are we still looking at about noon-ish? Trying to figure if work commute is worth it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 WxSouth saying the snow line will be farther south then what the models are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Oh, the GFS just came in warmer. It does have that deformation band like the RGEM, though surface temperatures look iffy. It gives NYC a nice rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 GFS is colder, but it's somewhat alone in that.GFS looks like mostly rain for Raleigh. Also everyone in NC changes over to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Time to toss the globals and start nowcasting FTW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Oh, the GFS just came in warmer. It does have that deformation band like the RGEM, though surface temperatures look iffy. It gives NYC a nice rainstorm. It's been the coldest model too, kind of scary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A.J.NEGA Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Totals go down http://www.weather.gov/images/gsp/brief/STSStormTotalSnow_web.png Look at your time period...the previous maps took into consideration the snowfall that we all got today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Look at your time period...the previous maps took into consideration the snowfall that we all got today Areas North of 85 had no snow and they went down, plus Gastonia was 11.6 and went down to 8... we sure didn't get 3.6" today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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